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Public Analysis: Brief Taste of Summer, Cooler Conditions Likely This Weekend

May 17, 2017/by Steven Copertino

Good Afternoon!

Earlier this week we mentioned that there was a strong likelihood that much of the area would be seeing temperatures rising into the mid to upper 80’s, and possibly 90’s starting today. This has indeed turned out to be true, with many stations this afternoon reporting highs in the lower 90’s across Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York, and Connecticut. Tomorrow looks to be even warmer, with highs possibly reaching the mid 90’s by lunchtime tomorrow. However, this heat looks to be short-lived as another cool shot from Canada will likely bring temperatures back down to seasonable levels by this weekend!

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Due to the rather clear and calm conditions over the area last evening, most locations were able to drop down into the lower 50’s and upper 40’s during the early morning hours today, which made for a cool start to the day for anyone who was active before today’s sunrise. After sunrise, the clear and calm condition’s allowed temperatures to shoot up into the upper 80’s and lower 90’s across the entire region, with locations in Long Islands and coastal Connecticut seeing lower temps due to southerly winds coming off the of the cooler Atlantic ocean. This was quite the impressive rebound, and the 40+ degree rise in temperatures this afternoon actually helped a few record highs get surpassed, with LaGuardia Airport(NY), Monticello (NY), Danbury (CT), Hartford (CT), and Belmar (NJ) all beating their daily high temperatures. The rest of the afternoon should continue to be quite warm and pleasant, with the sea-breeze likely working its way deeper into portions of New Jersey, Southeastern New York, and Connecticut.

Later this evening, temperatures should stay relatively mild as the humidity begins to increase as a subtropical high pressure system off of the southeast coast continues to move eastward and pump up moisture from the Gulf and Atlantic. Clouds may begin to increase during the evening, as increasing high-level clouds were noted on the latest visible satellite imagery. Overnight lows should remain in the upper 50’s to upper 60’s across much of the area, with the exceptions of coastal communities, which may see lows in the middle 50’s due to continued southerly winds blowing in from the cooler Atlantic.

Latest visible satellite, surface temperatures, offshore buoy data, and regional radar mosaic showing very warm temperatures over the area this afternoon. Also note the cooler temperatures over Long Island and Connecticut due to the southerly winds from the Atlantic

If today wasn’t a good enough taste of summer for you, then tomorrow will likely deliver what you desire. While we may see some overcast and broken clouds over coastal areas tomorrow morning due to the southerly winds and enhanced moisture in the lower-levels, these clouds will likely break up quite quickly during the early afternoon hours. With low-level temperatures already quite warm, clear skies, and great southerly flow, tomorrow looks to be on track to hit the upper 80’s to low 90’s across much of the area tomorrow. Some portions of Northeastern New Jersey and Connecticut may even see highs in the mid 90’s, while coastal areas of NJ, NY, and CT see cooler temperatures overall, especially once the sea-breezes begin to set in. With temps in the lower to mid 90’s, tomorrow has a high chance of breaking quite a few daily high temperature records, even more so than today did. These warm and humid conditions will likely remain well into Thursday evening, as the model guidance over the past few days has really delayed the timing of the next cold front. Expect lows to range from the upper 60’s to lower 70’s across much of the area (excluding coastal locations)

With the increasingly humid and hot conditions expected to persist into tomorrow afternoon, the National Weather Service has issued an Air Quality Alert for the entire region. Sensitive individuals including the very young, the elderly, and persons with respiratory diseases such as asthma, should avoid strenuous outdoor activities during the afternoon and early evening hours.

High resolution North American Model showing highs in the upper 80’s to mid 90’s tomorrow afternoon (Courtesy of Tomer Burg)

Friday Into This Weekend

Friday will likely be warm, but not quite as warm as Wednesday (today) or Thursday were. Winds should begin to shift to more of a westerly direction during the day on Friday ahead of an approaching cold front located in Northern New York. However, it is likely that this cold front may take its time reaching the area, and with clear skies and southwesterly/westerly winds temperatures should easily reach into the mid 80’s across most of the region. Even though temperatures will remain rather warm, we should begin to see the humidity really drop off as the front ushers in drier Canadian air. Temperatures will gradually begin to fall off as the front should move through the area by late Friday afternoon or early evening. As this front drops southward through the area, temperature will drop into the more seasonable levels, with a more pronounced northwesterly wind developing.

It is worth noting that there is a potential that they delayed timing of the frontal system on Friday may allow instability to build up enough to the point that we may see isolated showers and thunderstorms develop. However, due to the dynamics that would allow the shower and thunderstorms to grow and become more widespread remaining concentrated to the northwest, it seems unlikely that any organized activity will be likely during the day on Friday.

High pressure coming from Canada will begin to move in during the evening hours on Friday, bringing a rather substantial change in air-masses. As the high pressure moves to our north on Saturday afternoon, cooler and drier conditions are likely to persist throughout the day as a more moderate maritime air-mass replaces the warm tropical air-mass that has been over our area. Highs will likely remain in the upper 60’s to lower 70’s across the entire are, with the exception of coastal locations on both Saturday and Sunday. Lows for both days will likely be quite cooler, reaching down into the mid to low 50’s once again. These temperatures will be quite a change, with highs being 12-15 degrees below-normal. Overall, it looks like a much more pleasant and seasonable weekend is on tap, so make sure to enjoy it!

This afternoons European model showing the potential for a pretty large-scale pattern change, with a deep trough located in the east for the middle half of next week and beyond

The next rain threat looks to be on Monday as some showers and potentially a thunderstorm or two will be possible as another cold front associated with an area of low pressure will be moving through the Northeast.

This afternoons model guidance suggests that the negative NAO will once again flex its muscles, allowing for a large trough to dig into the central portion of the country and gradually progress eastward next week. This will help to once again create a stronger chance at below-normal temperatures and even the threat for a significant precipitation in the long-range as blocking continues to take shape over Atlantic Canada.

Some pleasant, warmer or drier weather could still return at times, as synoptic features in pattern still shuffle around somewhat. But no prolonged heat is expected. Make sure to stay tuned as we get closer to Memorial Day and begin to get a grasp of what may be on the table for the holiday weekend!

For more information and posts like this one, make sure you sign up for Zone Forecasts — where multiple detailed articles, videos, and interactives are posted each day. Also, come interact with our staff and many other weather enthusiasts at 33andrain.com!

Have a great evening!

Steve Copertino

Public Analysis: Anomalous Warmth Gives Way to Cooler Weather Once Again

April 10, 2017/1 Comment/by Steven Copertino

Good afternoon!

The entire Northeast is enjoying temperatures well-above average once again today and tomorrow, as highs soar into the mid to upper 70’s, with even some readings of 80 degrees possible in southern locations. A brief return to more seasonable weather is expected later in the week before another chance for warmer temperatures sets up once again later in the period.

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Today Into This Evening

The ridge of high pressure that we talked about last week has indeed set itself up over the East Coast this afternoon, with light southerly winds overspreading the region today’s highs have surged into the middle to upper 70’s across portions of New Jersey and southern New York, with much cooler conditions noted on the coasts of Long Island and Connecticut. Offshore winds have really limited temperatures this afternoon, with some locations stuck in the middle 50’s due to the cool water just offshore. For the areas currently experiencing the warmer weather in New Jersey and inland areas, these temperatures are 20-24 degrees above the average temperature for this time of year, which is quite impressive considering most locations were at least 30 degrees cooler last week!

As we move through the afternoon and into this evening, only very wispy, high cirrus clouds are expected, so it should remain a rather beautiful Spring day as dew points remain low which allows this early warm weather to remain bearable. Once we get to around sunset, light south to southwesterly winds will keep temperatures in the 50’s for lows this evening, with coastal areas possibly dropping down in the mid to upper 40’s as southerly winds bring in a cooler and more dense air mass from the Atlantic.

Current surface temperatures, regional radar, and visible satellite imagery over the region showing a relatively pleasant Spring afternoon (Courtesy of GREarth)

Tuesday into Wednesday

The area of high pressure off of the Mid Atlantic coast will be examining our dominant weather force tomorrow, and will in fact strengthen a bit tomorrow morning. This will allow warmer temperatures in the lower and middle layers of the atmosphere will be brought north early on in the day, which will mean yet another day of well-above normal temperatures for the entire Northeast. These warmer mid to low-level temperatures may actually allow surface temperatures to be slightly warmer than today as stronger southwesterly flow at the surface will act limit offshore flow. With low dew points, clear skies, and the aforementioned warmer temperatures throughout the mid to lower levels of the atmosphere, tomorrow should be another very nice day with highs once again in the mid to upper 70’s, with some locations possibly exceeding 80 degrees. Tomorrow has the potential to be around 24-30 degrees above normal tomorrow (!) and may actually see some records fall in parts of Massachusetts as some areas may get as high as 36 degrees above normal!

Later in the day and towards the evening on Tuesday, a very weak cold front looks to pass over portions of Pennsylvania and New York, possibly reaching the NYC metro area late in the evening or very early hours of Wednesday. Clouds will gradually increase ahead of this front as it makes its way eastward, with a chance of some showers possible. Any shower activity looks to be on the light to moderate side right now as the best dynamics with the front look to be located over Pennsylvania, where a few nighttime thunderstorms are possible. Even though the front will be passing through the area Tuesday night, the enhanced cloud cover may work to “cap” the atmosphere and allow low temperatures to stay in the upper 50’s, which may break records across some inland locations.

Wednesday may start off with some clouds and lingering showers in the early afternoon, but depending on the timing of the cold front and whether or not it is able to move quickly enough to our east during the day, we may actually have a chance at burning away the cloud cover and warming temperatures back up into low to mid 70’s. The main area of cooler air looks to be delayed by 12-18 hours with this weak front, so by Wednesday evening or very early Thursday morning, temperatures should finally cool down once again.

12z 3km NAM showing much cooler temperatures just 5000 feet above the surface working their way into the region by Wednesday evening (Valid 8pm Wednesday)

Thursday and Beyond

The cooler air behind the front will be delayed, but not denied as temperatures on Thursday look to sink back down into the lower to mid 60’s across much of the area, with coastal locations seeing the typical 5-10 degree adjustment downward. This will be much closer to normal, with temperature departures only reaching around 2 degrees above normal for the warmest locations on Thursday, but with a stout northwest flow coming in from Canada and winds around 10-15 mph may make it feel a little cooler than usual.

Current indications are that an area of high pressure will drop down from Canada on Thursday evening and center itself over portions of Upstate New York on Friday, which should lead to temperatures hovering right around normal for this time of year. However, as that area of high pressure begins to get shunted off to our east, we may see southwesterly flow return once again just in time for Easter Sunday. This would bring the potential for above-normal temperatures to once again return to the area, but models diverge on the exact timing and duration for this at the moment.

12z GFS mean sea level pressure anomalies, showing an area of high pressure dropping out of Canada and into the Northeast on Friday morning and into Saturday (Valid 11am Friday)

With the Holiday Weekend coming near, make sure to check back for further updates!

Have a great day!

Steve Copertino

Public Analysis: Another Week of Extremes on Tap

February 27, 2017/by Steven Copertino

If you enjoyed the record warm temperatures, severe weather, and sudden return to more winter-like conditions that we experienced over the past week, then you’re in luck! This week is shaping up to be very similar to last, with record or near-record temperatures possible in the middle of the week, followed by a strong cold front passage that will leave the entire area right around seasonable or just slightly below average for this time of year with a possible clipper system passing near the area by the end of the work week.

This afternoon was rather pleasant with some mid to high level clouds noted on visible satellite imagery as a high pressure system located off of the mid-Atlantic coast remains in control of our weather for the rest of the day and into tomorrow. As we progress into late afternoon hours and evening, cloud cover will begin to increase over the entire area as southerly winds usher in a moist airmass in the low levels of the atmosphere. Since the cloud cover will be relatively heavy, temperatures will have a hard time dropping much this evening, so expect temperatures to only be in the mid to high 30’s inland and in the lower 40’s for the coastal regions as well as southern locations. Some patchy drizzle may be possible as the low level moisture mentioned earlier begins to increase as we head into the evening hours.

Current visible satellite and surface observations showing a rather thick cloud deck overspreading the Northeast (Simuawips.com)

As we move into Tuesday, a warm front should gradually begin to overspread the region in the morning and bring a cloudy start to the day. As we progress into the afternoon hours, temperatures should rise into the upper 50’s to mid 60’s areawide, with cooler temperatures around the mid 50’s likely along coastal locations. High level clouds may allow some sunshine to break through tomorrow afternoon, but as another warm front moves through in conjunction with some upper level energy from a disturbance passing near our area, low clouds and even some rain are quite possible by the afternoon. Low level clouds should continue to increase into the evening hours, with some steadier rain showers possible by late evening. Though winds look to be a little too strong for fog in the evening, warm winds coming off of the ocean and low level moisture in place may allow for at least the coastal communities to see some periods of fog, though this will have to be looked at in greater detail as we get closer to tomorrow evening.

NAM model showing winds coming off of the Atlantic on Tuesday afternoon, providing cloudy conditions as well as a threat for showers later in the day into the evening hours

Wednesday should be the most eventful day of the week in terms of sensible weather as the warm front that initially approaches the region tomorrow begins to advance north. The initial fog and rain showers should diminish by late morning, giving way to at least some sun breaking through the clouds. Temperatures should quickly rise deep into the 60’s and even low to mid 70’s by the afternoon hours, which could break numerous records once again across our area. Since we still do hold on to southerly winds, coastal sections as well as Long Isalnd may be limited as to just how warm they get.

As a strong cold front associated with a low pressure system moves through the Great Lakes Wednesday afternoon, winds from the south will usher in a very moist airmass for this time of year which will allow the atmosphere to become quite unstable. Even before the cold front and its associated “lift” which helps to build thunderstorms arrives, some showers and thunderstorms will be possible by the early afternoon hours. These shower and possible thunderstorms will mainly be limited to heavy rain and perhaps some gusty winds, but after these initial storms pass through is when the main event of the day looks to unfold. As we begin to destabilize the atmosphere again later in the afternoon, very strong upper level wind shear as well as significant lift will be present over the metro area, which will be quite favorable for organized severe thunderstorm development capable of potentially damaging winds. Though model guidance is beginning to key in on the potential for severe thunderstorms to pass near or over the area later in the day and into the evening, there are still some very important details that will have to be worked out during the day on Wednesday. One of the key factors to this potential severe weather threat will be just how widespread the initial showers and thunderstorm development is Wednesday morning, which will ultimately determine where the best instability is located, as well as where the leftover low level boundaries are located (which could locally enhance storm development). As of this morning, the Storm Prediction Center in Norman Oklahoma has placed our area in a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms on Wednesday with damaging wind gusts being the most likely risk at this time. Make sure to stay tuned as we will have continuing coverage of this potential severe threat over the next 48 hours.

Afternoon NAM model showing strong thunderstorms approaching the tr-state area by late afternoon

Behind the front will come a dramatically changed weather pattern. Thousands of miles to our north, a blocking ridge near Greenland will begin to have its effects on the weather throughout the hemisphere. Northern jet stream disturbances will slide southward through the Great Lakes and into New England, with colder air lingering across the Northeast parts of the United States. The first of these disturbances comes late this week in the form of a transient clipper system. Forecast models have wavered with the storms exact track, but a weak low pressure area tracking quickly through the Northeast US on Friday holds the potential to deliver some light snow — especially in New England. The exact track of the low pressure area will determine where the swath of light wintry precipitation falls. Make sure to stay updated with the active weather week ahead! For more information and posts like this one, make sure you sign up for Zone Forecasts — where multiple detailed articles, videos, and interactives are posted each day.

Have a great evening!

Public Analysis: Record-breaking Warmth Gives Way To Seasonable Weather

February 24, 2017/by Steven Copertino

Today has been yet another absolutely beautiful day with scattered clouds and light winds making for an excellent and unusual end to another February workweek. After a cold front and possible associated line of showers and thunderstorms move through tomorrow, a return to more seasonable temperatures is likely.

Temperatures this afternoon have soared into the low to mid 70’s across much of the area. with coastal locations along Long Island and Connecticut seeing temperatures a bit lower in the mid 60’s. As was mentioned as early as Monday, these temperatures are 25-35 degrees above normal for this time of year, and as a result, numerous monthly high temperature records are falling across the entire Northeast. All of this warmth has been caused by a high pressure system over the western Atlantic that continues to provide winds out of the southwest that will continue through this afternoon. As we progress through the afternoon and into the evening, the persistent ridging and attendant high pressure system will begin to give way to a stronger mid-level disturbance currently located over the central Plains this afternoon. (This system is also responsible for the marginal severe threat in the Ohio Valley this afternoon and evening-see our Severe Analysis for more on this event)

A look at the record-breaking temperatures across the metro area this afternoon

As the influence from this system increases later this evening, the amount of moisture available in the atmosphere will also increase. This low level moisture will become trapped underneath a temperature inversion, which will act as a “lid”, and enhance the possibility for some dense fog for coastal regions this evening and lasting into early tomorrow. This moisture should linger into the morning hours, with low level clouds and even some patchy drizzle taking place in the areas that have more available moisture to work with. As we move into Saturday afternoon, temperatures should not be as warm as today as winds from the southeast start to work into the metro and limit highs to the upper 60’s for inland locations and 50’s for the coast. Some locations that are stuck underneath prolonged low level clouds tomorrow afternoon will also struggle to really warm up too much tomorrow afternoon.

HRRR model showing limited surface visibility tomorrow morning (Valid 7am)

HRRR model showing limited surface visibility tomorrow morning due to low clouds and fog (Valid 7am)

The main story tomorrow will be a cold front advancing eastward from the Ohio Valley and into Pennsylvania by tomorrow afternoon. Due to some limited instability as well as some lift provided by the upper level jet overspreading the area, a line of showers and thunderstorms will likely develop over Pennsylvania early tomorrow afternoon and quickly race eastward. As this line of thunderstorms reaches eastern Pennsylvania, southern New York, and New Jersey, what limited instability and dynamics that this line had to begin with will gradually fade. As a result, by the time the line of showers and thunderstorms reaches our area they should begin to weaken quite a bit. Heavy downpours, some brief gusty winds, and even some thunder are all possible, especially across inland zones.

3km NAM showing line of thunderstorms and associated showers along the cold front (Valid 3pm Saturday)

After the front moves through late tomorrow afternoon/evening, some lingering showers will be possible as temperatures begin to return to seasonable levels, and then even back down to below-normal temperatures by early Sunday morning. Although this below-normal period of temperatures appears to be short-lived, it should be quite the contrast from what we have seen over the past week or so. Once we get into the upcoming work week, temperatures should hover around normal to slightly above-normal with the chance for a few weak disturbances passing near our area to provide some precipitation for the area starting on Monday. This unsettled weather will continue for the rest of the week, but as we move on in time, long range guidance is beginning to indicate that the very fast flow that has prevented a few significant winter storms this season will begin to relax. This could possibly lead to at least some cooler weather and possibly a full return to winter by March. Make sure to stay tuned for updates on tomorrow’s possible heavy rain threat as well as the evolving long range pattern! For more information and posts like this one, make sure you sign up for Zone Forecasts — where multiple detailed articles, videos, and interactives are posted each day.

Have a great weekend!

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