Severe Weather Archives - Page 12 of 14 - New York Metro Weather

Gusty winds, isolated tornadoes possible Wednesday AM

October 6, 2014/0 Comments/by John Homenuk

It’s not often that we talk of severe weather potential this late in the season, but the upcoming meteorological setup argues for a bit of anomalous potential. A potent mid level distubrance and associated height falls will approach the area from Tuesday Night into Wednesday morning. More notably, a juxtaposition of instability and shear on most forecast models is likely to create a corridor of severe weather potential. Exactly where, and when, this corridor develops will obviously have major impacts on our forecast. Today, forecast models have come into better agreement on the idea that this corridor could traverse from New Jersey through NYC, Long Island and parts of Southern New England early Wednesday morning.

The main potential for severe weather will come Tuesday Night into Wednesday morning as a surface low passes just to our northwest, over the interior Northeast. As it does so, maximized forcing will pass through the area from southwest to northeast. Forecast models agree that southerly winds ahead of this front will lead to moisture return and developing instability. In addition favorable kinematics including veering/backing low level winds, favorable low level and bulk shear, will juxtapose with the developing instability to support the potential for severe weather.

Strong storms possible with big cold front Thursday

September 10, 2014/1 Comment/by John Homenuk

A significant cold front moving through the Central United States will approach the region late on Thursday evening, bringing a wind shift and drop in temperatures both aloft and at the surface. The cold front is associated with a major mid level disturbance, which will shift from the North Central US into Southeastern Canada. As the front shifts through our region, moderate instability and favorable wind fields could support the development of strong/severe thunderstorms.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed parts of the area in a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon and evening, citing a risk for strong winds. In addition to the winds, unseasonably high precipitable water could support heavy rain and flooding in any storms that shift through the area Thursday evening. But the severe weather threat isn’t as straightforward as it may seem.

Transition weekend, stormy conditions next week

July 24, 2014/0 Comments/by John Homenuk

After strong to severe storms blew through the area on Wednesday evening, Canadian high pressure is back in control on Thursday. Cooler than normal air will slide back into the area over the next few days, with generally pleasant conditions. High temperatures in the 80’s will be more common than the 90’s from earlier in the week, but the lower humidity will make it feel much more comfortable. A transition in the pattern won’t occur until late this weekend into early next week, when unsettled weather will be poised to make a return.

As a mid level disturbance slides eastward through the Great Lakes, actually a part of a larger upper level trough, a warm front will slide northeastward from the Ohio Valley through the Northeast US. This will be the first sign of forthcoming unsettled weather, as increasing temperatures and forcing along the front will aid in the development of storms as early as Sunday morning. Multiple disturbances moving northeastward through the area will provide chances for storms on Sunday — but the main event would come on Monday as a low pressure system shifts through the Northeast US.

GFS model showing disturbances in the mid levels of the atmosphere approaching the area early next week.

Severe thunderstorms likely this afternoon and evening

July 15, 2014/0 Comments/by John Homenuk

A morning sounding, gathered via data from a weather balloon launched at the NWS in Upton, New York showed a developing unstable environment — and sufficient wind shear for organization of strong and severe thunderstorms. An approaching disturbance in the mid and upper levels will aid in the development of strong to severe thunderstorms, which will be fueled by a moderately unstable environment throughout the area. Organized thunderstorms will be capable of producing strong and damaging winds, frequent lightning, and very heavy flooding rains.

Additionally, an increase in storm relative helicity and low level shear suggests the potential may exist for downbursts and isolated tornadoes. If individual supercells can form, this threat could be somewhat greater. Storms are expected to develop over Eastern Pennsylvania this afternoon and shift eastward through NJ, NYC, SE NY and CT. With strengthening wind fields, just above the surface, any storm could produce the aforementioned damaging winds and severe-weather impacts.

Morning sounding from the weather balloon launched at Upton, NY.

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