Posts

hrrr_ref_frzn_neus_10

Hot & Humid, with Severe T-Storms for Parts of the Northeast Today

Good morning! Happy Tuesday! Today will be hot and humid for much of the Northeast, as a Bermuda-type high pressure sets up off over the Atlantic. Some areas of patchy fog will burn off early this morning. Then partly to mostly sunny skies with southwest winds are expected for the rest of the day. Temperatures will rise in the upper 80s to middle 90s this afternoon. Temperatures will be little cooler with sea-breezes closer to the shores. High humidity with some dewpoints low to mid 70s, will support heat index values in the upper 90s to lower 100s. Particularly over I-95 corridor between New York City and Philadelphia, where heat advisories are in affect for today.

But this oppressive heat and humidity will be short-lived as a strong cold front and upper-level trough will be approaching from the Great Lakes today. Moderate to strong instability will be building with more daytime heating and more tropical moisture streaming northward. This could support some isolated showers and thunderstorm to develop anywhere and anytime during the today. However, more widespread showers and strong-severe thunderstorms are likely over Interior parts of New York and Pennsylvania this afternoon, as more dynamics with the cold front moves into those parts of the Northeast initially.

 

We’re sorry! The rest of this post is restricted to members who have registered for our Premium Content.

(Already registered? Log In)

Premium Members gain unlimited access to all of these premium posts, technical discussions, long range outlooks, seasonal forecasts in advance, and storm re-analysis posts as well as archives and weather models on the Dashboard, PLUS in your email inbox each day…

…For only $9.99 a month! What are you waiting for? Click here for further details.

ne_f48

Premium: Severe Weather Threat for the Interior Northeast Friday into Saturday

Today will be another very warm and humid summery day for the Northeast with more widely scattered showers and thunderstorms popping up this afternoon and evening. Due to the stronger mid-level ridging, very weak wind fields and less instability with warmer mid-level temperatures, these storms will likely be less intense and fewer and father in between than on Wednesday. But will still be very slow-moving and capable of producing some heavy rainfall and flash flooding in some spots.

However, a shortwave energy embedded in a larger upper-level trough will be amplifying over the Great Lakes Friday and Saturday. This will cause low pressure to deepen and track northeast through the Great Lakes into Southeast Canada on Friday and Saturday. As it does so, it will drag a frontal boundary will be moving be slowly through the region, as ridging from the Western Atlantic gradually breaks down. Large scale ascent and lowering heights will support more numerous showers and thunderstorms over the Interior Northeast again.

We’re sorry! The rest of this post is restricted to members who have registered for our Premium Content.

(Already registered? Log In)

Premium Members gain unlimited access to all of these premium posts, technical discussions, long range outlooks, seasonal forecasts in advance, and storm re-analysis posts as well as archives and weather models.

…For only $9.99 a month! What are you waiting for? Click here for further details.

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_25

Public Analysis: Hot Again Today, Then Unsettled with T-Storms Possible Tonight thru Monday

Good morning and happy Saturday! After a few weeks of more pleasant, warm weather, we finally got a reminder that it’s still mid-July late this week. We had three consecutive day of 90°+ temperatures in many of the climate reporting sites around the region, such as Central Park, NY and Newark, NJ. Which officially makes these last few days of hot and humid weather a heat wave. Some locations will add 4th day to the heat wave today, before more unsettled and cooler weather arrives tonight and Sunday.

Read more

Screen Shot 2017-07-18 at 5.55.06 PM

Significant severe weather possible in Northern Plains on Wednesday

Happy Tuesday evening! For the past several days, our forecasters have internally discussed (to members and clients) the potential for a significant severe weather event throughout the Northern Plains during the middle part of this week. On the periphery of a strong mid level ridge, forecast models and ensembles have been hinting for several days that impressively strong mid level winds will surge southward from Canada.

This may not sound overly significant initially, but the mid level winds strengthening along the northern periphery of a strong heat ridge can often be the first signal for significant severe weather potential. As these winds juxtapose with the presence of impressive instability and sometimes lift, severe thunderstorms can develop and quickly organize. This Wednesday will be the culmination of these ingredients. Lets break it down:

Read more