Posts

John Homenuk

Major storm likely this weekend, but uncertainties continue

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Forecast models continue to slowly converge on the overall evolution of a large, powerful coastal storm which will evolve near the East Coast of the United States later this week. The agreement in regards to the storm development, on almost all global models and ensembles, is quite remarkable for this lead time. Almost every global model shows the storm system developing through the Mississippi River Valley, and eventually re-forming off the East Coast, moving northward to a position off the Delmarva. The exact track and intricacies of the atmospheric setup, however, create continued uncertainties in regards to the storms impact in our local area.

The setup actually begins to unfold later this evening, as a strong Pacific disturbance comes ashore in the Pacific Northwest. This disturbance is forecast, by all models, to drop southeastward through the Rockies, eventually to a position near the Central and Southern Plains states during the middle part of the week. During this time, another strong northern jet stream disturbance is forecast to race southeastward through the Dakotas, eventually phasing with the Pacific disturbance as it moves toward the Mississippi River.

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John Homenuk

What we know about Monday’s potential snowstorm

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On the heels of a low pressure system which brought light snowfall to the area on Friday, a shortwave will drive southward through the Plains states on Saturday. Coming over the top of a mid and upper level ridge on the West Coast of the United States, the shortwave is forecast to amplify southward from the Plains states through the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys by Sunday. As a result, a surface low pressure will form and move from the Mid Atlantic States to a position off the Northeast Coast by Monday morning and afternoon.

Forecast models have been struggling to pin down details in regards to the mid and upper level features which will characterize the storm system. Earlier this week, models were in good agreement that the storm system would take a more southerly track. With the surface low moving from the Mississippi Valley to the Southern Mid Atlantic Coast, the main concern for our area would be precipitation staying too far south for meaningful snowfall. But in the past 24 hours, a noticeable trend toward a more amplified solution has emerged. Forecast models now track the system off the coast of New Jersey — raising concerns that precipitation type may change to sleet or rain across portions of the area on Monday.

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John Homenuk

Potentially historic blizzard expected Tuesday

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Click here to check out our live blog with the latest information on the blizzard beginning at 8pm tonight.

Forecast models have trended dramatically in favor of a significant Nor’Easter, developing off the East Coast of the United States on Monday Night into Tuesday. The pattern features a very complex evolution of events, but favors a higher than normal likelihood of a significant low pressure system and precipitation developing along the East Coast, with higher than normal confidence in significant snowfall especially along the coastal plain.

Aloft, a significant upper level trough will eject southeastward toward the Ohio Valley and eventually to a position in the Southeast States. With a closed 540dm isopleth, this mid level trough is quite amplified. Mid and upper level heights will respond to this amplification along the US East Coast, with a pulse of the Western Atlantic Ridge. This will allow for mid level winds to become oriented south to north along the Eastern Seaboard.

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Francesco Paparatto

Watching Possible Snowstorm For March 12th-13th

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There is growing confidence that a possible snowstorm will affect the Northeast U.S. during the middle of next week, as the ingredients needed for one to occur are beginning to consistently show up on the models. It seems this winter has been relentless with the constant cold and frequent snowfalls. This type of pattern just does not want to let go — not yet, at least.