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Live Blog: High impact snowstorm underway

February 3, 2014/0 Comments/by John Homenuk

The National Weather Service has issued widespread Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories as a moderate to high impact snowstorm will impact the majority of the area on Monday. A low pressure system traversing northeastward along a cold front will provide lift for significant precipitation, which will move northeastward into the area. Bands of moderate to heavy precipitation will bring periods of snow, heavy at times, to much of Northern and Central New Jersey. For the latest expected accumulations and information, our live blog below has updates every hour or so:

8:30am Update: Snow continues throughout a vast majority of the forecast area with increasing frontogenic forcing areawide allowing for improved snowfall rates and developing expansion of banding. This will continue for the next few hours and forecast models are in good agreement on increased snowgrowth and potential for more rapid accumulations. Snow is accumulating in all areas despite warm ground, but obviously suburbs are seeing quicker accumulation rates based on fallen liquid observations thus far.

The banding is expected to continue on a southwest to northeast trajectory over the next several hours. HRRR is in good agreement with other short term models on a band of 4-8″ of snow from essentially Hunterdon County NJ through Trenton and northeastward from Monmouth Co to Staten Island NY, including Union, Somerset and Middlesex Counties in NJ. This area is prime for amounts on the higher end of that scale and the models indicate some isolated potential for amounts over 8″. Confidence in that is low and our forecast remains 4-8″ for much of that area into NYC, SW CT and LI.

Farther South in Central and Southeast NJ the transition line from rain to snow continues working south but progress has slowed. Southeast of Mount Holly, rain continues and is expected to continue over the next few hours. Some snow or sleet may mix in during heavier banding. Snow totals are expected to be lower in this area, although there will eventually be a transition to frozen precipitation later today.

Stay tuned over the next few hours and be aware of very hazardous travel. We have included our updated snowfall map below.

Moderate snowstorm likely on Monday

February 2, 2014/0 Comments/by John Homenuk

A low pressure system developing along a stalled frontal boundary is likely to bring precipitation to the entire area beginning early Monday morning, with cold air funneling in from the west/northwest behind the front and changing precipitation to snow throughout the area. Forecast models have trended much farther north and more expansive with the precipitation shield associated with this low pressure — and as a result, we are now expecting the potential for moderate snowfall accumulations throughout the area. There are several uncertainties still remaining with the forecast system, including timing and temperatures, but confidence continues to increase in the accumulation forecast today.

Snow is expected to begin in Northern NJ, NYC, SE NY and Connecticut during the early morning hours on Monday. Across parts of Central and Southern NJ, precipitation may begin as rain or may be mixed. As precipitation intensity increases, dynamic cooling will occur — changing most areas to snow. The exception may be in Southeast NJ and parts of Long Island, near the coast, where warmer air in the low levels will keep precipitation mixed or stop snow from accumulating. Elsewhere, moderate to heavy snow is then expected to continue throughout much of the morning and early afternoon.

Storm Total Snowfall Forecast as issued by our meteorologists on February 2, 2014.

PM Update: Snowstorm winds down, cold air funnels in

December 10, 2013/0 Comments/by John Homenuk

The first snowstorm of the year blanketed much of New Jersey and New York with a few inches of snow on Tuesday, leaving a wintry scene behind. Forecast snowfall totals were fairly accurate — with the general 2-4″ forecast throughout the area serving as a good indicator of what was to come. A brief burst of heavy snow early on Tuesday morning began the event which continued until the middle of the afternoon, before wrapping up as scattered snow showers. Some notable snowfall reports (still preliminary) include: Newark (2.2″), Kennedy Airport (2.0″), and Central Park (1.3″), all daily records for their locations.

A photo taken by Doug Simonian during the heavy snow burst at 10:30am in Rockville Centre, NY.

We will post a separate article sometime tonight or tomorrow recapping the event which will have final snowfall totals, a photo gallery, and a brief analysis as far as what went right and wrong with the forecast. Although for the most part, the snowfall forecast verified, a few spots did not receive as much snow as they could have, due to surface temperatures hovering between 32 and 34 degrees, rather than in the upper 20s to around 30.

Tonight, as the storm system exits stage right, some serious cold air will begin to funnel into the area. Temperatures, both aloft and at the surface, will respond to this changing airmass and arctic intrusion — and the snow cover will help low temperatures plummet tonight. Overnight lows will fall into the teens across much of the interior and real-feel temperatures will fall into the teens in the city as well. Be aware of black ice potential on area roads, as any standing water may quickly freeze over. Wednesday morning will certainly be a shock to the system, and will feel quite wintry!

Today’s 18z GFS valid for tomorrow morning shows low temperatures primarily falling in the teens in the interior, and low 20s in the city. Temperatures on Long Island will be a bit colder than what this model is showing — probably in the low 20s as well. Image credit goes to weatherbell.com.

Live Blog: First winter storm of the season begins in NYC

December 10, 2013/0 Comments/by John Homenuk

11:30am Update: There is a bit of a lull right now as the initial band has moved to our east, and lots of precipitation as expected missed us offshore.

But now that the system is interacting with a mid-level disturbance to our west, snow has blossomed again in E PA, and especially in SW Jersey near Philly, and head NE. The core of that heavy band may just miss NYC, but the NYC area will still see some more moderate snow within the hour and perhaps another inch or so of accumulation.

That band will probably head from I-95 and just south and east, hitting most of Middlesex county, probably clip Union county, hit Monmouth county, and then head towards Long Island, where probably another 1-2″ will fall.

There has been some melting during the lull in the action, as surface temperatures have been hovering right around freezing, and rose just above freezing during the lull in some spots. -DS

10:00am Update: Ingredients continue to lineup for heavy bands of snow in the region, particularly around the I-95 corridor or just south of it.

SPC mesoanalysis shows favorable ingredients for snowfall banding located on the I-95 corridor, or just south of it.

The image above shows a mesoscale snowfall banding parameter called EPVg. We won’t get overly technical, but it’s basically an index that tells us if we can expect slantwise convection, which is a much stronger type of lifting mechanism for snow bands than just straight convection. The values are more impressive as one heads southeastward, so lots of precipitation will blossom in S NJ and head just offshore, but there is certainly enough of this for heavy bands to traverse I-95, and especially southeast of there, particularly from 10:00am through noon. 1-2″ of snow per-hour can be expected in some of these bands, with around 1/2″ of snow per hour outside of the bands.

The storm is moving quite quickly, so even in the heaviest banding, 6″ will probably not be exceeded. A general 3-5″ snowfall is still expected, with maybe a tad less further NW of I-95 — though even there, slightly higher snow to liquid ratios due to colder temperatures may make up for the lack of precipitation. -DS

9:10am Update: Took this photo about 10 minutes ago in Rockville Centre, NY — shows that even along the coast, the roads became white right away. Be safe out there! -DS

9:00am Update: Heaviest band of snow has formed in a SW to NE zone from Trenton, through Middlesex, NW Monmouth, Staten Island, NYC, and western Long Island, where 1-2″ of snow per hour can be expected. The ideal snow growth on the models has been realized, as large, fluffy dendrites are falling.

I’m in SW Nassau County, and even here, temperatures quickly fell once the snow started, and it is now accumulating everywhere. Do not let the initial slightly above freezing temperatures fool you if you are along the coast — temperatures fall very quickly once the heavy snow arrives.

Give yourself some extra time on this morning commute. -DS

8:50am Update: Banding and areas of heavy snow have continued to develop and expand some as anticipated. A bit of warmer boundary layer (near surface) temperatures near the immediate coast will melt the initial snow (may even be a rain/snow mix) upon contact, but as snow rates increase the accumulations should begin. Not many other changes otherwise since the last update. Heavy snow is expected to continue, especially across much of New Jersey into New York City, over the next few hours.

Snowfall total forecasts also remain unchanged (you can view it in our previous article). We are expecting generally 2-5″ throughout the majority of the area (lesser end north, higher end south) with isolated higher totals in areas that sit under banding for prolonged periods of time.

Regional radar imagery as of 8:50am showing blossoming area of moderate to heavy snow throughout the area.

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