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Steven Copertino

Public Analysis: Cooler and More Unsettled Pattern Taking Shape

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Good Afternoon!

The work week has had a rather dreary start today as cloudy skies and even some rain showers pushed through the area this morning and afternoon. Most of these showers were relatively light in nature, but most of the metro area remained at least under rather thick low level clouds. This area of cloudiness and showers was caused by a weak disturbance in the mid levels of the atmosphere just ahead of a larger system that is still located back in southern Canada.

As of 3pm this afternoon, the clouds and showers associated with this weak system have begun to dissipate and move to the east/southeast, giving way to clearing skies over northeast NJ and portions of Connecticut. Despite the cloudy conditions and the mixed in showers, temperatures have been able to rise into the mid to upper 60’s this afternoon. In fact. the locations that are beginning to see more sun poke through the clouds this afternoon have actually made it back into the low to mid 70’s. Even though these temperatures are still slightly above normal for this time of year, they are still a good 15-20 degrees cooler than the highs this time yesterday afternoon. Temperatures may continue to warm for portions of central and southern New Jersey as gradual clearing takes over, but overall highs should remain in the mid to upper 60’s with some locations able to break into the low 70’s.

As we work our way into later this afternoon and evening, more gradual clearing will begin to overspread the entire area behind the weak disturbance and antecedent cold front.  Some breezy winds of around 25-30 mph may linger into the evening hours, but as we progress towards sunset, winds should begin to subside, eventually giving way to clearer and more calm conditions. These conditions should allow for all locations to see some rather cool conditions once again this evening, as lows drop into the 40’s for coastal locations and possibly down into the upper 30’s for farther inland locations.

Latest surface temperatures, regional radar imagery, and visible satellite imagery showing improving conditions across much of the area this afternoon (Courtesy of GREarth)

Latest surface temperatures, regional radar imagery, and visible satellite imagery showing improving conditions across much of the area this afternoon (Courtesy of GREarth)

Tuesday Into Wednesday

As we move into tomorrow, generally cooler weather is expected once again as offshore flow brings in a cool maritime air mass from the Atlantic. Winds out of the northwest will also usher in drier conditions as well, so expect mainly clear skies during the day tomorrow with rather pleasant conditions. High pressure located to the northeast will also help to keep things relatively calm and seasonable for this time of year as highs stay in the mid to upper 50’s across much of the area, with a few locations seeing temperatures creep into the lower 60’s tomorrow afternoon.  Tomorrow should feel quite pleasant with frequent sun and light winds, but tomorrow should be right around normal for this time of year. 

Tuesday evening should see a gradual increase in clouds as moisture from the offshore winds bring in some low level moisture. Depending on how much cloudiness winds up manifesting tomorrow night will ultimately determine just how cool the low temperatures can get, but right now it seems that most of, if not all of the area will be seeing lows tomorrow evening in the 40’s. There is a small chance that inland locations that are further away from the coast, and therefore have less chance of marine influence, could possible see lows dip in the upper 30’s, but this will have to be monitored.

As we talked about last week, we are headed into what looks to be a more active pattern later this week that is quite reminiscent of late March as multiple storm systems and potential backdoor cold fronts have the possibility to impact our area. As of right now, Wednesday looks to be a rather seasonable day with broken clouds likely throughout the day just ahead of a gathering storm system in the central part of the county. This storm system will continue to head east towards the area throughout the day, and at least bring some enhanced cloudiness towards the evening hours. 

12z GFS 13km model showing a gathering storm system on Wednesday over the central US on Wednesday evening (Image courtesy of GREarth)

12z GFS 13km model showing a gathering storm system on Wednesday over the central US on Wednesday evening (Image courtesy of GREarth)

Thursday and Beyond 

Thursday should be a rather unsettled day as a frontal boundary ahead of the main area of low pressure in the Ohio Valley begins to sink to the south of the region. This should provide a chance at some showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two before the main low pressure approaches on Thursday evening. As of right now, there seems to be two main options for the late week storm, with the first option looking somewhat more likely as of this afternoon’s model guidance.

This option would mean that the main area of low pressure in the Ohio Valley would be able to lift the frontal boundary that was previously to our south, back up to our north. This would bring more warm/moist air into the area Thursday evening and into Friday afternoon. In this scenario, the low pressure would then track along the frontal boundary to our north during the day on Friday, and this would in turn bring the potential for heavier rain, with some thunderstorms also possible if enough instability is able to work its way in.

The other scenario would be that the low pressure system and frontal boundary remains to the south of the region late Thursday and into Friday, thus a cooler and steadier rain would be more likely. While both scenarios have the potential for heavy rain, the first option would be more intense, but also more localized. The second option would obviously be much more widespread and could even have a wind threat associated with it if the system remains far enough to the south.

12z European model showing the main area of low pressure tracking well to our north on Friday morning, bringing in a more moist/unstable airmass with the potential for heavy showers and even thunderstorms (Valid 2am Friday)

12z European model showing the main area of low pressure tracking well to our north on Friday morning, bringing in a more moist/unstable airmass with the potential for heavy showers and even thunderstorms (Valid 2am Friday)

As we head into the weekend, there is a chance things may briefly calm down, but overall temperatures are likely to remain slightly above or near normal through the weekend. Afterwards, there is a chance that a more substantial rain event could take place. This afternoons guidance has been hinting at the potential for a coastal system to impact the region, but this is of course in the long range and there is a great amount of uncertainty right now.

Regardless, it seems that things are going to become active once again with multiple rain chances over the next 7-10 days, so make sure to stay tuned for future updates on the upcoming pattern!

For more information and posts like this one, make sure you sign up for Zone Forecasts — where multiple detailed articles, videos, and interactives are posted each day. Also, come interact with our staff and many other weather enthusiasts at 33andrain.com!

Have a great afternoon!

Steve Copertino

Steven Copertino

Public Analysis: Beautiful and Warm Easter Weekend, More Variations Next Week

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Good afternoon and Happy Friday!

The end of the work week will come to a very nice close today as high pressure dropping down from Canada is now in control of our weather for at least the next two days. With mostly sunny skies. low humidity, and light winds, this afternoon has been rather pleasant with highs reaching into the upper 50’s and low 60’s across the entire region as of 2pm. Even though it feels much cooler than the previous 80 degree days we’ve had earlier this week, these temperatures are still 5-10 degrees above normal for this time of year.

Some mid-high level clouds were noted on the latest visible satellite imagery this afternoon, streaming from the northwest, to southeast. This is mainly due to the cooler mid-level air from Canada interacting with the ever-so-slightly warmer air in the lower levels of the atmosphere that is situated over northeast Pennsylvania and portions of New Jersey. As the afternoon continues on, these clouds should begin to diminish and mostly sunny skies should continue until sunset across the area. There is a chance that some localized cloud cover may become established later today as a sea breeze begins to set up over coastal sections of New Jersey and Long Island. This may also in turn work to cool temperatures a little, possibly working them back into the mid 50’s.

With the aforementioned high pressure directly overhead this evening, winds will be calm, humidity will be low, and the skies should be relatively cloud-free. This will set the stage for what is known as radiational cooling to take place. Due to the absence of clouds to block outgoing heat from the Sun, any heat absorbed by the surface will easily be able to radiate back into the upper atmosphere and space. This will allow temperatures this evening to drop quite a bit this evening. The immediate New York metro area should be able to hold onto lows around the mid to upper 40’s this evening, but inland locations may see lows drop down into the low 40’s to even mid-upper 30’s in far northern NJ and portions of Upstate New York.

Latest visible satellite imagery, regional radar composite, and surface temperatures this afternoon showing a relatively cool, but pleasant end to the work week (Courtesy of GREarth)

Latest visible satellite imagery, regional radar composite, and surface temperatures this afternoon showing a relatively cool, but pleasant end to the work week (Courtesy of GREarth)

Saturday and Easter Sunday 

As we move into the morning on Saturday, the area of high pressure currently situated over our area will begin to feel the effects of an incoming area of low pressure and will begin to slowly move off the Mid-Atlantic coast. As this high moves off the coast, winds will begin to change from light and variable to light southwesterly/southerly winds during the early afternoon hours. These southerly winds will introduce more moisture into the lower levels of the atmosphere that will likely be accompanied by some cloudier weather tomorrow afternoon, especially as a mid-level warm front begins to push through the area.

As this warm front moves through during the late afternoon, there is a very slight chance at some showers across the area, but at this time any widespread activity centred over this NYC metro area seems unlikely. Regardless of clouds, the deep southerly flow will allow for temperatures to reach into the low to middle 60’s across the entire area, except for south-facing shorelines, which may experience more marine influence which would work to keep temperatures in the 50’s tomorrow.  Any areas of showers that may be moving through the area should be gone by tomorrow evening as the best forcing associated with the warm front lifts to the north and east.

Again, the best chance for any rain of substance should be limited to central and northern sections or New York state as well as a more isolated chance of showers over Pennsylvania. Deeper southerly flow tomorrow night should keep temperatures relatively mild, with lows staying in the 50’s for the entire region as the high pressure system continues to pump more warm air into the mid levels of the atmosphere, which should help insulate our temperatures.

Sunday should be a much more “pleasant” day, as broken clouds in the morning hours give way to mostly sunny skies by early afternoon. With full sunshine, southerly winds, and warm low-mid levels of the atmosphere all present on Sunday, Easter is shaping up to be another much-above normal day with regards to high temperatures. As we progress throughout the afternoon, temperatures should easily climb into the upper 70’s across the entire area, with areas of low to mid 80’s possible over sections of southeast PA, NJ, southern NY, and Connecticut. Once again, these southerly winds may introduce a sea breeze feature for south-facing shores, so high may be limited to the 70’s for those locations. Regardless, temperatures should be anywhere from 20-32 degrees above normal during the day Sunday, so it will actually feel more like Summer than Spring! 

The very warm temperatures and light winds may make for some very unfavorable conditions for those who suffer from allergies, so make sure to take your necessary precautions in order to enjoy the beautiful weather this weekend!

This afternoons 3km NAM showing temperatures in the upper 70's to mid 80's across the entire area for Easter Sunday

This afternoons 3km NAM showing temperatures in the upper 70’s to mid 80’s across the entire area for Easter Sunday

A cold front associated with an area of low pressure centered over southern portions of Canada and far northern New England will begin to work its way through the area late Sunday evening, bringing another chance of some isolated or scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms could still contain heavy rainfall and gusty winds to the north and west, but today’s model guidance has been suggesting this activity should be centered away from our region and will likely wait until after dark to pass through the NYC metro area-if at all.

Monday and Beyond

As we head back into the work week, Monday should be rather calm and dry behind the cold front, with winds out of the northwest from Canada. As we get later into the Spring, these cold fronts begin to lose their potential to really drag in colder air masses from Canada, and it looks like this will be the case with this next front as temperatures should be able to rise into the upper 60’s to low 70’s on Monday across the entire area, which should once again be above normal for this time of year.

On Tuesday, some cooler air may sink down from Canada ahead of a system passing through the Great Lakes, and this should be the beginning of a more unsettled period of weather for our area again as more storm systems should begin to take shape out over the Central US later in the week. This upcoming pattern may be quite similar to the pattern we saw during late March  and earlier this month with backdoor cold fronts as well as numerous chances for precipitation.  Temperatures will once again be highly dependant on how these frontal systems shape up, so make sure to check back next week for further updates on this potentially more active period!

12z GFS model showing a potentially stormier pattern setting up for later in the week next week (image credit Tomer Burg)

12z GFS model showing a potentially stormier pattern setting up for later in the week next week (Image credit Tomer Burg)

With the Holiday Weekend just around the corner and the threat for some showers and thunderstorms on Easter, make sure to check back for further updates!

For more information and posts like this one, make sure you sign up for Zone Forecasts — where multiple detailed articles, videos, and interactives are posted each day. Also, come interact with our staff and many other weather enthusiasts at 33andrain.com!

Have a weekend!

Steve Copertino

Steven Copertino

Public Analysis: Brief Cooldown, Followed By More Warm and Unstable Weather

/by

Good Afternoon!

After temperatures in the mid to upper 80’s yesterday across much of the region, a weak cold front and some weak showers will bring temperatures back down to more seasonable levels starting this evening and lasting through Saturday. However, by Easter Sunday we may see a return to much above-normal temperatures with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

This Afternoon and Evening 

The weak upper level system that we talked about back on Monday has moved through the NYC metro area this afternoon and has brought some light to moderate showers, with even a few very isolated rumbles of thunder. As of 2pm, this activity was heading east at a pretty decent speed while it also outruns the best upper-level support to sustain these showers. This area currently situated over Long Island and Connecticut should continue to progressively move east this afternoon and eventually move offshore while continuing to weaken in the process.

Rapid clearing is taking place behind this area of showers, as dry air begins to settle in from the north and west. As skies continue to clear this afternoon, temperatures should be able to rise into the upper 60’s and lower 70’s across the area, with coastal locations staying on the cooler side once again. Even with temperatures currently in the mid 60’s  and lower 70’s across the area, this is still a good 10-20 degrees below what temperatures were just 24 hours ago.

As was mentioned back on Monday, the actual cooler air with this front is lagging behind the shower activity by quite a bit, but as high pressure begins to drop down from Canada late this evening, temperatures should be able to fall into the 40’s across the entire area, with an outside chance of upper 30’s across the interior sections of NY.

Current surface temperatures, regional radar mosaic, and visible satellite imagery showing rather rapid clearing taking place behind the weak upper-level disturbance (Courtesy of GREarth)

Current surface temperatures, regional radar mosaic, and visible satellite imagery showing rather rapid clearing taking place behind the weak upper-level disturbance (Courtesy of GREarth)

Thursday and Friday 

High pressure will be in control in time for the morning commute tomorrow, with relatively cool temperatures likely by 8am, ranging from the mid to upper 40’s across the area. Some overcast and broken clouds are possible tomorrow morning and into early afternoon, before a brief break giving way to mostly clear conditions. This should allow temperatures to easily rise into the upper 50’s and low to mid 60’s across the area by late tomorrow afternoon.

Another weak cold front will be set to move through tomorrow afternoon and evening, bringing some more broken clouds and winds of about 10-15 mph sustained out of the northwest. The lack of moisture and lift associated with this front will forbid the development of showers, so only increased cloudiness is expected into tomorrow evening.

The lack of clouds and light to moderate winds underneath the area of high pressure will allow temperatures to fall into the low to middle 40’s tomorrow evening, with inland sections of northern New Jersey and New York possibly slipping back down into the 30’s for lows.

Friday should be a relatively tranquil day as the area of high pressure continues to remain in control over our area. Mostly sunny conditions are expected with a few clouds possible over the south and west portions of the area. Calm winds and clear skies should give way to seasonable temperatures Friday afternoon, with highs ranging from the upper 50’s to mid 60’s across the entire area. As we head into the evening, the same calm conditions will allow for temperatures to slip into the 40’s for lows once again, with 30’s possible in the interior sections.

12z European model showing the area of high pressure centered over the Northeast on Friday afternoon. (Courtesy of Accuweather Pro)

12z European model showing the area of high pressure centered over the Northeast on Friday afternoon. (Courtesy of Accuweather Pro)

Saturday and Beyond 

The area of high pressure that will have been in control for Thursday and Friday will finally move offshore to the Mid Atlantic coast on Saturday, and this will begin to bring quite a few changes for this holiday weekend. As the area of high pressure begins to shift off to our east, winds will change from the north and west, to more southerly/southwesterly during the morning and afternoon hours. This change to more southerly winds will allow warmer air to work its way in during the day, with a warm front progged to move through by 2pm or so.

This warm front will bring an increase in clouds, with a chance at some showers and even some weak thunderstorms during the late afternoon hours. Instability will be quite weak and there really shouldn’t be change from that thinking so at this time it does not seem like these showers and possible thunderstorms will capable of anything outside of some heavy downpours and very isolated gusty winds. Otherwise, temperatures should be able to reach the mid to upper 60’s across the area on Saturday, with coastal locations possibly seeing more prolonged cloudiness which may lead to highs only in the upper 50’s to low 60’s.

As we move into Easter Sunday, much above-normal temperatures seem quite likely as the aforementioned high pressure system located off the east coast continues to funnel warm and moist air from the south and into our area. Some dry/sinking air behind the warm front that passed through on Saturday may allow for a break in the clouds in the early afternoon on Sunday, and this should usher in a mix of sun and clouds to start off the day.

Strong southwesterly winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will continue to bring in very warm temperatures across the area during the heart of the day, which could allow for temperatures to reach into the low to mid 80’s for locations that see more sunshine and are further away from the coast. Regardless, temperatures will be very warm on East Sunday with the entire area likely experiencing highs in the upper 70’s to mid 80’s, with the exception of coastal locations who may have to deal with a seabreeze later on in the afternoon which could knock temperatures down quite a bit.

As a cold front begins to work its way in towards area of Upstate New York later in the afternoon and evening some more showers and thunderstorms will be possible, but at this time the main focus of this activity  should be off to our north and west as the best forcing for storms looks to be displaced from our area.

12z European model showing temperature anomalies ranging from 20-30 degrees above normal on Sunday afternoon with temperatures possibly reaching into the 80's once again (Courtesy of Accuweather Pro)

12z European model showing temperature anomalies ranging from 20-30 degrees above normal on Sunday afternoon with temperatures possibly reaching into the 80’s once again (Courtesy of Accuweather Pro)

With the Holiday Weekend coming closer and the threat for some shower and thunderstorms on Easter, make sure to check back for further updates!

For more information and posts like this one, make sure you sign up for Zone Forecasts — where multiple detailed articles, videos, and interactives are posted each day. Also, come interact with our staff and many other weather enthusiasts at 33andrain.com!

Have a great day!

Steve Copertino

Steven Copertino

Public Analysis: Anomalous Warmth Gives Way to Cooler Weather Once Again

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Good afternoon!

The entire Northeast is enjoying temperatures well-above average once again today and tomorrow, as highs soar into the mid to upper 70’s, with even some readings of 80 degrees possible in southern locations. A brief return to more seasonable weather is expected later in the week before another chance for warmer temperatures sets up once again later in the period.

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Today Into This Evening

The ridge of high pressure that we talked about last week has indeed set itself up over the East Coast this afternoon, with light southerly winds overspreading the region today’s highs have surged into the middle to upper 70’s across portions of New Jersey and southern New York, with much cooler conditions noted on the coasts of Long Island and Connecticut. Offshore winds have really limited temperatures this afternoon, with some locations stuck in the middle 50’s due to the cool water just offshore. For the areas currently experiencing the warmer weather in New Jersey and inland areas, these temperatures are 20-24 degrees above the average temperature for this time of year, which is quite impressive considering most locations were at least 30 degrees cooler last week!

As we move through the afternoon and into this evening, only very wispy, high cirrus clouds are expected, so it should remain a rather beautiful Spring day as dew points remain low which allows this early warm weather to remain bearable. Once we get to around sunset,  light south to southwesterly winds will keep temperatures in the 50’s for lows this evening, with coastal areas possibly dropping down in the mid to upper 40’s as southerly winds bring in a cooler and more dense air mass from the Atlantic.

Current surface temperatures, regional radar, and visible satellite imagery over the region showing a relatively pleasant Spring afternoon (Courtesy of GREarth)

Current surface temperatures, regional radar, and visible satellite imagery over the region showing a relatively pleasant Spring afternoon (Courtesy of GREarth)

Tuesday into Wednesday 

The area of high pressure off of the Mid Atlantic coast will be examining our dominant weather force tomorrow, and will  in fact strengthen a bit tomorrow morning. This will allow warmer temperatures in the lower and middle layers of the atmosphere will be brought north early on in the day, which will mean yet another day of well-above normal temperatures for the entire Northeast. These warmer mid to low-level temperatures may actually allow surface temperatures to be slightly warmer than today as stronger southwesterly flow at the surface will act limit offshore flow. With low dew points, clear skies, and the aforementioned warmer temperatures throughout the mid to lower levels of the atmosphere, tomorrow should be another very nice day with highs once again in the mid to upper 70’s, with some locations possibly exceeding 80 degrees. Tomorrow has the potential to be around 24-30 degrees above normal tomorrow (!) and may actually see some records fall in parts of Massachusetts as some areas may get as high as 36 degrees above normal!

Later in the day and towards the evening on Tuesday, a very weak cold front looks to pass over portions of Pennsylvania and New York, possibly reaching the NYC metro area late in the evening or very early hours of Wednesday. Clouds will gradually increase ahead of this front as it makes its way eastward, with a chance of some showers possible. Any shower activity looks to be on the light to moderate side right now as the best dynamics with the front look to be located over Pennsylvania, where a few nighttime thunderstorms are possible. Even though the front will be passing through the area Tuesday night, the enhanced cloud cover may work to “cap” the atmosphere and allow low temperatures to stay in the upper 50’s, which may  break records across some inland locations.

Wednesday may start off with some clouds and lingering showers in the early afternoon, but depending on the timing of the cold front and whether or not it is able to move quickly enough to our east during the day, we may actually have a chance at burning away the cloud cover and warming temperatures back up into low to mid 70’s. The main area of cooler air looks to be delayed by 12-18 hours with this weak front, so by Wednesday evening or very early Thursday morning, temperatures should finally cool down once again.

12z 3km NAM showing much cooler temperatures just 5000 feet above the surface working their way into the region by Wednesday evening (Valid 8pm Wednesday)

12z 3km NAM showing much cooler temperatures just 5000 feet above the surface working their way into the region by Wednesday evening (Valid 8pm Wednesday)

Thursday and Beyond

The cooler air behind the front will be delayed, but not denied as temperatures on Thursday look to sink back down into the lower to mid 60’s across much of the area, with coastal locations seeing the typical 5-10 degree adjustment downward. This will be much closer to normal, with temperature departures only reaching around 2 degrees above normal for the warmest locations on Thursday, but with a stout northwest flow coming in from Canada and winds around 10-15 mph may make it feel a little cooler than usual.

Current indications are that an area of high pressure will drop down from Canada on Thursday evening and center itself over portions of Upstate New York on Friday, which should lead to temperatures hovering right around normal for this time of year. However, as that area of high pressure begins to get shunted off to our east, we may see southwesterly flow return once again just in time for Easter Sunday. This would bring the potential for above-normal temperatures to once again return to the area, but models diverge on the exact timing and duration for this at the moment.

12z GFS mean sea level pressure anomalies, showing an area of high pressure dropping out of Canada and into the Northeast on Friday morning and into Saturday (Valid 11am Friday)

12z GFS mean sea level pressure anomalies, showing an area of high pressure dropping out of Canada and into the Northeast on Friday morning and into Saturday (Valid 11am Friday)

With the Holiday Weekend coming near, make sure to check back for further updates!

For more information and posts like this one, make sure you sign up for Zone Forecasts — where multiple detailed articles, videos, and interactives are posted each day. Also, come interact with our staff and many other weather enthusiasts at 33andrain.com!

Have a great day!

Steve Copertino