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Steven Copertino

Warm and Unsettled Pattern Returns, Cool Shot This Weekend?

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Good Evening! 

Today was another beautiful day over the vast majority of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic regions as a large area of high pressure centered over the Ohio valley continues to press eastward, continues to dominate our weather. With relatively clear skies, low humidity, and warm mid level temperatures, highs today across the region were able to find their way back into the mid to upper 80’s. This is another step back up to seasonal temperatures after highs took a pretty large hit late last week and during the first half of this past weekend. These warm temperatures, clear skies, and light winds will last into the evening hours, and should be quite favorable for radiational cooling to take place during the overnight and early morning hours. This should allow low temperatures to fall into the mid to upper 60’s across the area, leading to another comfortable evening across the entire region.

As of six o’clock, there were some heavy showers and thunderstorms located over western New York and central Pennsylvania associated with a weak mid level disturbance. Shear and instability is marginal at best in this region, and as you get further from these storms, atmospheric conditions become very unfavorable to sustain these showers and thunderstorms Therefore, we do not expect any significant shower/thunderstorm activity to move into the region this evening.

This evenings latest high resolution radar mosaic, visible satellite imagery, and surface observations, showing a very nice and clear day over much of the Northeast. Some showers and thunderstorms were ongoing over portions of PA and NY. but these are expected to dissipate later this evening (Courtesy of Simuawips)

This evenings latest high resolution radar mosaic, visible satellite imagery, and surface observations, showing a very nice and clear day over much of the Northeast. Some showers and thunderstorms were ongoing over portions of PA and NY. but these are expected to dissipate later this evening (Courtesy of Simuawips)

Tuesday and Wednesday

Tuesday morning will likely start off relatively clear, with any low level clouds and residual early morning fog quickly dissipating. The area of high pressure over the Ohio Valley will continue to move to the east and get closer to the region, which should also allow for temperatures to increase a bit more as mid level ridging increases aloft. In addition to warmer mid level temperatures, the high pressure system to our south should allow winds from the west/west-southwest to take over during the day on Tuesday. This will in turn allow for dewpoints to increase to the lower to middle 60’s across the entire region, making for a more muggy feel tomorrow afternoon. Clear skies should allow for highs to quickly rise into the middle to upper 80’s tomorrow-with some locations possibly creeping into the lower 90’s.

With the increasing dewpoints over the area, instability will be on the rise, and we may have to watch for some afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity. At this time, it appears quite likely that any thunderstorm activity will likely be located over portions of Pennsylvania and New York state once again, due to an overall lack of coherent forcing, unimpressive mid level lapse rates, and weak shear values over the NYC metro area. As we head into the evening hours tomorrow, things should remain quite warm as the increased mid level moisture/temps really put a cap on any potential radiational cooling. Lows will likely be stuck in the low to middle 70’s, with more humid conditions taking over. Some patchy fog may try to develop near coastal locations, but widespread fog is not likely at this time.

On Wednesday, we can expect yet another sunny start to the day with any early morning clouds and fog quickly burning off by the late morning hours. A weak shortwave trough in the mid levels of the atmosphere will be loving to our west during the afternoon hours, and this trough will have to be watched during as the area begins to destabilize on Wednesday. This afternoons model guidance is not too impressive with shear or overall forcing over our area, but a few small changes over the next 36 hours would yield some different results. At this time, it appears that capping may hold on long enough on Wednesday afternoon to allow for some weak mid level energy to pass to the west of the region, thus setting off the development of some showers and heavy thunderstorms over portions of Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York, and Connecticut. Wind shear and lapse rates look very marginal at this time, so any storms that do form will likely be “pulse” storms that oscillate in intensity without begin able to move much. This may result in locally heavy downpours in some areas in addition to some brief gusty winds. Regardless, highs should be in the middle 80’s to lower 90’s once again on Wednesday, with another warm and humid evening on tap as well.

This afternoons RPM model showing the development of showers and thunderstorms over portions of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast on Wednesday. Overall, these showers and thunderstorms should remain below severe limits due to weak shear and poor mid level lapse rates.

This afternoons RPM model showing the development of showers and thunderstorms over portions of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast on Wednesday. Overall, these showers and thunderstorms should remain below severe limits due to weak shear and poor mid level lapse rates.

Thursday and Beyond 

Later in the week, a strong cold front associated with a large northern stream disturbance will begin to track to the south and east. Before the frontal boundary reaches the area, precipitable water values will likely surge once again, possibly edging over the 2″ mark over portions of the Mid Atlantic. This moisture surge will be similar to the one that occurred last week, but with a completely different upper level setup this time. As the front approaches the region on Friday and Saturday, there is the possibility of numerous showers and thunderstorms breaking out as the parameters for thunderstorm development become much more favorable, with a strong upper jet maximum, increased forcing, and better lapse rates. Depending on how this system evolves over the next few days, we may have to watch for another localized flooding event over portions of the NYC metro area.

As this frontal system pushes through on Saturday and Sunday, a large area of high pressure dropping down from Canada will begin to take control, which should provide a nice end to the weekend, with cooler conditions and much lower humidity. At this time, this period of mid temperatures and decreased humidity looks to last into the middle of next week, before we have to worry about our next rain chances.

This afternoons European ensembles, showing relatively good agreement on a brief cool down after a frontal passage this upcoming weekend (Courtesy of Tropical Tidbits)

This afternoons European ensembles, showing relatively good agreement on a brief cool down after a frontal passage this upcoming weekend (Courtesy of Tropical Tidbits)

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Have a great evening!

Steve Copertino

Steven Copertino

Bulk of Unusual July Storm Stays South, Locally Heavy Rain Still Possible

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Good Evening! 

Well the storm that we have been following for the past week or so is in its formative stages as of this afternoon/evening, with heavy rain beginning to break out over portions of the Mid Atlantic states. While the storm should continue to develop and mature through the evening, the overall evolution and impacts that will be accompanying this system have changed quiet a bit. As we outlined on Wednesday in the “What Could Go Wrong” section, we stated that the overall positive nature of the incoming trough was not conducive for phasing of the lead energy ahead of the system, thus making us question the overall likelihood of widespread heavy rainfall over the New York metro area. Since that time, the models have come into line with our previous thinking and have really shifted the upper level features around, which has in turn has had a rather dramatic effect on exactly where the heaviest rainfall will occur tonight and into Saturday morning.

This afternoons and evenings regional radar mosaic, high resolution visible satellite imagery, and surface observations, showing the development of widespread heavy rains over the Mid Atlantic region. This development will continue to ramp up through this evening (Courtesy of Simuawips.com)

This afternoons and evenings regional radar mosaic, high resolution visible satellite imagery, and surface observations, showing the development of widespread heavy rains over the Mid Atlantic region. This development will continue to ramp up through this evening (Courtesy of Simuawips.com)

So what has changed over the past few days? 

For starters, a positively tilted trough approaching the Northeast is never really a great start if you’re looking for a large, lumbering system with abundant precipitation to form off the coast. This is exactly what we have approaching the area this evening, as noted on the latest 500mb analysis as well as water vapor imagery from the non-operational GOES-16 satellite. The next factor preventing this region from seeing a long-duration system is the very fast flow out to the east of the main storm system. This is something that we usually have to deal with when forecasting winter storms, but it also applicable to summer storms as well. This speedy flow can be attributed to a large upper level low in the eastern regions of Canada. As energy in the base of the large upper level system over Canada begins to rotate and shift southeast, it begins to flatten heights to the east out, and this is the exact opposite of what we would need to slow this system down.

Ideally, we would want the Canadian system to be centered more to the west, mitigating the effects of lower heights ahead of the storm, which would allow the system to slow down a bit and have more northward progression. So putting these negative factors all together, we can expect the shortwave over the Ohio Valley to continue to move east quite slowly, and continue to cause the development heavy rainfall over portions of the Mid Atlantic. Instead of amplifying and strengthening to our south and east tomorrow, the mid level system will remain to our west and will likely wind up getting sheared out-which should cause the overall system to decay.

This afternoons NAM, showing the mid level evolution of the storm system over the next two days. Note the lack of phasing and eventual sheared-out look

This afternoons NAM, showing the mid level evolution of the storm system over the next two days. Note the lack of phasing and eventual sheared-out look!

So what are the impacts? 

Despite its obvious flaws, this is definitely an anomalous system for this time of year and it will bring some heavy impacts, but those do not look to be directly aimed at the NYC metro area. As precipitation continues to break out later this evening, they will be in an extremely moist environment characterized by PWATS over two inches in some spots. Additionally, soundings over the Mid-Atlantic region indicate that a deep “skinny” CAPE profile also exists with values around 1500-2300j/kg^2, which will add to the torrential downpour situation as the night goes on. The last major player that is on the table, is an extremely impressive upper level jet nosing in from the the Ohio Valley. As the wind maximum from this upper level jet streak begins to move further east, it will begin to greatly expand the amount of upper level divergence, which will be directly over the heaviest areas of convection (thunderstorms). This strong upper level divergence will support whats known as low level convergent boundaries-which could spark heavy storms with prolific and near-record rainfall rates over portions of the Mid Atlantic.

It is quite obvious that the numerous favorable factors are coming together in just the right manner so that flooding concerns will be extremely high for the MA region. In fact, the Weather Prediction Center has issued a rare High Risk for flooding over portions of the Mid Atlantic! In general, rainfall totals should be around the 2-5″ range, with some localized amounts of 7-10″ possible in the heaviest of rain bands. This will almost certainly create very serious flooding, so please stay tuned to your local NWS!

Further north for the NYC metro area, things will be a bit more tame as we appear to be on the northern fringes of this system. This does not mean that we are exempt from seeing any heavy rains at all, as we will still have a very moist air mass to work with, and the same excellent upper level divergence to promote some convergent boundaries-which may spark some showers and storms. However, we will have to deal with some sinking air over the NYC area, which should prevent any widespread heavy rain from developing. Some isolated pockets of 1-2″ may be possible with the heaviest showers here, but general totals should be around an inch or less.

By tomorrow afternoon, the disturbance should begin to decay and get sheared out, which should gradually put an end to the heavy precipitation across the entire region.

(Again, if you are located in an area prone to flash flooding, please be aware of any warnings issued-ESPECIALLY during the overnight hours) 

Loop of the development and progression of the heavy rain over the Mid Atlantic over the next day and a half

Loop of the development and progression of the heavy rain over the Mid Atlantic over the next day and a half

We will be back Monday with a look at next week and beyond!

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Have a great weekend!

Steve Copertino

Steven Copertino

Rare July Nor’Easter Possible This Weekend With Heavy Rains and Wind

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Good Evening! 

Today was yet another in a series of days with below average high temperatures and low humidity. The difference with today, was the fact that we were able to mix out some early morning clouds and have a mostly sunny day across the vast majority of the area, as well as the Northeast. The area of high pressure that contributed to some pleasant and cooler weather yesterday moved directly over the NYC metro area this afternoon, and this further helped to conditions quite pleasant, with light winds generally from the south. With low humidity, clear skies, and a fresh high pressure system over the area, we saw highs limited to the mid to upper 70’s, with a few locations off to the west and north over Pennsylvania and northern New England reaching into the lower 80’s this afternoon. Overall these temperatures were around 5-10 degree below the norm for this time of year, and quite the contrast to the miserable heat and humidity we had over the entire Northeast just a week ago.

As the area of high pressure that was in control for most of the day continues to head eastward, it will begin to kick up more of a southerly flow in its wake later this evening. As it does so, this will lead to increased low level moisture building over the region as well as mid level temperatures increasing ever so slightly. The gradual increase in low level moisture should allow for the development of cloudier conditions for the rest of the evening, which should allow for overnight lows to not be quite as low as they were the past few nights, with temperatures getting down into the lower to middle 60’s across much of the area.

This afternoon/evenings latest high resolution visible satellite imagery, regional radar mosaic, and surface observations, showing relatively pleasant conditions with some high clouds beginning to move in as the high pressure to our east gradually fades (Courtesy of Simuawips.com)

(Click To Animate) This afternoon/evenings latest high resolution visible satellite imagery, regional radar mosaic, and surface observations, showing relatively pleasant conditions with some high clouds beginning to move in as the high pressure to our east gradually fades (Courtesy of Simuawips.com)

Thursday into Thursday Evening

Thursday should start off with mostly broken clouds, with some overcast further inland as the area of high pressure really begins to back off to the east and begins to introduce a brand new moist airmass into the Mid Atlantic and Northeast regions during the late morning and afternoon hours. Additionally, south-southwest flow will also begin to increase markedly ahead of a mid level shortwave that will be located over the Great Lakes region as well as the Ohio Valley. As this south-southwest flow begins to increase, mid level temperatures will begin to increase once again, which should support a round of warmer temperatures by the mid afternoon hours. Despite the possibility of some cloud cover, highs should be able to get into the low to middle 80’s-which will be right around normal for the area during late July. It should be noted that some influence from afternoon sea breeze activity could work to cut highs along coastal sections tomorrow by five or so degrees. In addition to the increasing temperatures, the dreaded dewpoints will once again be on the rise tomorrow afternoon-with values ranging in the mid 60 to lower 70 range, making for a muggy afternoon tomorrow, reminiscent of the days last week.

With all of this increasing moisture in the low levels of the atmosphere, we will likely also see instability begin to increase tomorrow afternoon and into the evening hours. Though not as impressive as it looked a few days ago, tomorrows setup should still yield a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms across the Northeastern states as a weak mid level system will gradually work its way east and potentially spark some showers and thunderstorms during the late afternoon and evening hours. The main limiting factors for any widespread/impressive thunderstorm development will be relatively meager mid level lapse rates, as well as any impressive shear to help keep potential updrafts organized and coherent. However, more favorable parameters may come together over portions of Pennsylvania and New York, so those with interests in those locations may have a better shot at seeing strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and possibly a brief tornado. Otherwise, any storms that form near the NYC metro area will likely be capable of producing gusty winds, heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning before they gradually fade to the east by sunset. Expect another humid evening with lows ranging in the middle to upper 60’s once again.

This evenings latest RPM model showing the general evolution of Thursday weather, with some showers and thunderstorms possible. Widespread severe thunderstorm development is not anticipated (courtesy of WSI)

This evenings latest RPM model showing the general evolution of Thursday weather, with some showers and thunderstorms possible. Widespread severe thunderstorm development is not anticipated (courtesy of WSI)

This Weekends Potentially Impactful Nor’Easter 

Back on Monday we highlighted the possibility that the Northeast would have to deal with an area of heavy rain moving in from the west during the evening on Friday and into the early morning hours of Saturday, however since that time there have been some marked changes with regards to the duration, timing, and overall severity of this potential system. While the overall main players remain the same, with the initial monsoon energy moving up and around the periphery of the large heat ridge located in the Plains, as well as a small, but potent shortwave diving out of Canada-how these two interact remains to be far from settled at this time.

This afternoons model guidance suggests that as the initial monsoon energy heads into the Ohio valley, the potent Canadian shortwave trough will begin to interact with this energy and begin to phase together to some degree. This setup is something we’d typically be talking about in the Winter months, but the overall outcome may wind up being quite similar-just with warmer temperatures this time around. As these mid level systems interact and potentially phase, this will cause a surface low to develop over the Mid Atlantic states during the afternoon hours on Friday. As this surface low begins to become more established, it will have a very warm and moist feed of tropical air pumping into it from the south. Additionally, it looks quite likely that there will be a favorable upper level jet configuration overhead of this system, which should promote a healthy amount of upper level divergence and convergence at the surface levels. In short, when all of these factors come together in just the right manner, its a rather strong signal that very heavy rain will be likely for portions of the Mid-Atlantic.

So what could go wrong? Though this system will have some potentially favorable synoptic support, there are some serious questions that still remain with this system that make this a very difficult forecast. First off, the trough diving down from Canada is whats known as “positively tilted” in nature, meaning that the majority of its energy is located in the bottom left quadrant of the trough, which often allows the system to be progressive in nature. It also does not help that we have been stuck in a rather progressive west to east pattern for the past week or so, with no upstream blocking to help slow things down. This pretty much eliminates the chances of a large, wrapped up system along the coast unless something drastically changes. Next off, the initial monsoon energy out ahead of the Canadian system will be moving quite quickly to the east, and as the Canadian system drops south, it may wind up shearing out the energy ahead. This would create a much weaker and disjointed system that would likely have the heaviest rain offshore.

Taking all of this into account and carefully looking at this afternoons model guidance, I have decided to go with a blend of the ECMWF/NAM/ECMWF-ENS/UKMET at this time. This would lean towards a more progressive solution for this system, bringing the surface low from the Mid Atlantic coast, to well southeast of New England. This track would likely still bring moderate to heavy rain to the NYC area, but areas south of NYC would likely feel the brunt of this system (PA/MD/SNJ). At this time, it seems likely that the heaviest batch of rainfall should be able to drop 1-2″, with some higher amounts possible along the coasts of NJ and LI. This system is forecast to exit the region by Saturday afternoon, with some showers and gusty winds lingering around thereafter.

We will be carefully monitoring this system over the next few days and providing updates as needed!

This afternoons ECMWF model showing a rather impressive Nor'Easter for this time of year affecting the Mid Atlantic and portions of the Northeast with heavy rain and gusty winds (Courtesy of Accuweather Pro)

This afternoons ECMWF model showing a rather impressive Nor’Easter for this time of year affecting the Mid Atlantic and portions of the Northeast with heavy rain and gusty winds (Courtesy of Accuweather Pro)

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Have a great day!

Steve Copertino

Steven Copertino

Public Analysis: How Long Will the Cooler Weather Last? Increasing Storm Threat Later This Week

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Good Evening! 

Last evening we saw the development of numerous showers and heavy storms primarily focused to the south of the immediate NYC metro area. These showers and embedded thunderstorms were responsible for producing absolutely torrential downpours over southern Pennsylvania, southern NJ, and as well as Maryland. A record 4.27″ of rain fell between 6-7pm, with 1.83″ of that falling in just 21 minutes!  Radar estimates also showed numerous areas of intense rainfall ranging from 4-6″/hr in some locations which caused localized street flooding into the early evening hours. In addition to the very heavy rainfall last night, there were actually two cases of low-topped supercells developing over NJ and Maryland, one of which actually dropped a strong tornado that injured one person and caused damage to a few homes. This tornado was given a preliminary rating of an EF-2 on the Enhanced Fujita scale, with winds topping out around 125 mph! The second tornado supercell formed right near Ocean City, New Jersey and may have produced a brief, weak tornado over that area before moving off the coast where it looks to have strengthened according to radar observations.

Three-Dimensional Volumetric Scan of velocity data from KDIX, showing a rather pronounced mesocyclone reaching towards the surface levels last evening near the New Jersey coast (Courtesy of GRLevel2AE)

Three-Dimensional Volumetric Scan of velocity data from KDIX, showing a rather pronounced mesocyclone reaching towards the surface levels last evening near the New Jersey coast (Courtesy of GRLevel2AE)

As the evening hours progressed, the upper level disturbance moving through the Northeast wasn’t quite as organized as most guidance had showed, thus the overall widespread heavy rain and flooding threat was much lower than what it could have been. Eventually showers and storms did redevelop over Central Pennsylvania and gradually moved eastward, affecting the NYC metro early this morning with gusty winds and localized heavy rainfall. The area gradually cleared out, with only gusty showers left by noon. During the afternoon hours, we saw a pronounced dry patch associated with the upper level jet streak begin to punch its way over the area from west to east.

This dry punch allowed for skies to become mostly cloudy, but with occasional peeks of sunshine mixed in. Additionally, synoptic winds (not associated with thunderstorms) began to increase, which made today feel quite cool as high temperatures were only in the upper 60’s with some locations just hitting the 70 degree mark! This is an incredible difference from a few days ago when we were discussing highs in the middle to upper 90’s combined with high dewpoints, allowing for heat indices to reach into the lower 100’s!

During the late afternoon hours, we saw a relatively similar setup to yesterday, with a wedge of instability located over Pennsylvania, and modest wind shear overspreading the warm sector. With a shortwave trough working its way in from the west, we saw the development of a sew severe thunderstorms over Central PA, with a few cells even becoming tornado warned due to the rather decent surface to 500mb vertical wind shear. As the late afternoon and evening marches on, these showers and thunderstorms should continue to gradually head east/east southeast, and weaken with time as they run into a more stable airmass over the NYC metro area by an area of high pressure to the north. While it is quite likely that these showers and thunderstorms will dissipate before reaching the area, some heavy rain and gusty winds may be possible with any stronger remnants of these storms. The aforementioned high pressure will allow for tonight’s lows to remain 5-10 degrees below normal, with lows ranging in the upper 50s, to lower 60’s across the area.

This afternoon/evenings latest regional radar mosaic, high resolution visible satellite imagery, and regional surface observations, showing the redevelopment of showers and thunderstorms over PA. These storms are expected to weaken before reaching the NYC metro area

This afternoon/evenings latest regional radar mosaic, high resolution visible satellite imagery, and regional surface observations, showing the redevelopment of showers and thunderstorms over PA. These storms are expected to weaken before reaching the NYC metro area (Click to Animate)

Tuesday into Wednesday

Tuesday morning should start off rather cloudy, with overcast likely in some places as the lower levels of the atmosphere remain quite saturated. A weak area of low pressure may be located just to our tomorrow morning, and this should allow winds to funnel from a much cooler airmass located to the north.  With the skies likely only improving ever so slightly, temperatures tomorrow afternoon should only be able to rise into the upper 60’s to middle 70’s, which will be well-below normal for this time of year (10-15 degrees). Some locations may be able to rise into the upper 70’s tomorrow afternoon depending on just how quickly the residual mid level moisture decides to move. If things are able to dry out sooner, than cloud cover may become more scattered, with peeks of sunshine likely. Additionally, some added sinking air courtesy of a building high pressure system from the west ma also allow some improving conditions later in the day, but at this time widespread clearing does not seem all that likely for the entire region. Tomorrow evening should be yet another well-below normal night in terms of low temperatures, as the area of high pressure continues to build in from the west and clears out the area.

Wednesday will likely be the most quiet day in this forecast period as the area of high pressure fully extended over the region and takes control of our weather. We may start off the day with a few clouds due to the northwesterly flow, but as the column begins to dry out and the sun starts to warm things up, we should see a transition to cool, but relatively sunny day with scattered clouds and light winds. Wednesday will likely also be the nicest day of the week due to the low chance of rain, low humidity, and sunny skies. Highs will likely range from the low to middle 70’s, with some locations with prolonged sunshine possible reaching a few degree warmer. Wednesday evening will likely be below normal once again, but it is uncertain as to how much below normal temps will be able to reach. The models suggest that some increasing cloud cover may exist over the area as the high pressure system begins to move to our east, ushering in a more southerly flow. If this does indeed occur, then lows will likely be right around normal, with temperatures getting down to the middle to upper 60’s.

This afternoons European model showing a large area of high pressure moving in over the Northeast during the early morning hours on Wednesday, making for a very cool and pleasant day with low humidity and few clouds! (Courtesy of Accuweather Pro)

This afternoons European model showing a large area of high pressure moving in over the Northeast during the early morning hours on Wednesday, making for a very cool and pleasant day with low humidity and few clouds! (Courtesy of Accuweather Pro)

Late Week Rain Threat

Later in the period, the models suggest that the near-zonal pattern that we’ve been stuck in for the last week will produce yet another heavy rain threat late Thursday evening, and possibly into Friday morning. Energy from a monsoonal system currently located over the desert Southwest will begin to move north and east around the northern periphery of a large heat ridge centered over Texas over the next few days. As it does so, another disturbance will be moving briskly across southern Canada to the east. Depending on the degree of interaction between these two systems, the mid level disturbances may briefly phase over the Ohio Valley, allowing for the development of a surface low pressure system to form. A blend of this afternoons European/NAM models shows that as this low pressure moves over western New York, it would begin to drag up a very moist airmass from the south. Additionally, an impressive upper level jetstreak may be positioned over the Northeast, which could promote modest amounts of lifting in the atmosphere.

Though the exact details of this scenario will largely depend on small details like the degree of interaction, timing, and location of each disturbance, there does appear to be an increasing threat of heavy rain late Thursday evening, and into the morning hours on Friday, especially for locations to the North and West. We will continue to monitor this potential storm system over the next few days and provide more details on potential impacts!

Evolution of the mid level disturbance first tracking north, then east over the large ridge centered over the Plains states. Depending on the degree of interaction with another northern stream disturbance, this system may be another heavy rain producer

Evolution of the mid level disturbance first tracking north, then east over the large ridge centered over the Plains states. Depending on the degree of interaction with another northern stream disturbance, this system may be another heavy rain producer

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Have a great day!

Steve Copertino