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Steven Copertino

Public Analysis: Calm and Cool Conditions Gives Way to Hot and Stormy By Friday

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Good Evening! 

We had a rather wild Saturday morning this past weekend as the remnants of Tropical Storm Cindy stormed through the area along with a rather strong cold front. All of the deep tropical moisture and forcing from Cindy and the cold front allowed a rather impressive line of torrential rain and embedded thunderstorms to move through the area early on Saturday morning. This area of heavy rain did bring some flooding to locations as rainfall rates increased to over one inch per hour, but also brought some extensive wind damage, along with two confirmed tornadoes in Monmouth county, New Jersey! After the cold front moved through, we saw a much direr air mass take over yesterday, which has persisted through the day today, and should last another 48 hours. Afterwards, it appears that a large area of high pressure will form just off the East Coast and looks to bring above normal temperatures back to the region, with the addition of another muggy air-mass and the threat of some strong thunderstorms towards the end of the week.

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This Evening Into Tomorrow

As mentioned, today was a very pleasant day with mostly sunny skies, light winds, and cooler temperatures thanks to a rather moderate and dry air mass in place over the region. High temperatures were able to stick into the mid to upper 70’s, which is slightly-below, or just around seasonable for this time of year. Some locations saw temperatures drop off a bit during the afternoon hours as sea-breezes made their way inland over portions of Long Island and Connecticut. There was some threat of isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, but the lack of a strong trigger and very dry mid levels of the atmosphere seem to point that nothing more than a few cumulus clouds should be expected for the remainder of the day and into the evening.

As we continue into the evening hours, a very unusually strong mid level trough for this time of year will continue to pivot eastward, and drags another cold front with it. While this afternoons models were hinting at some rain later this evening associated with this cold front, it seems that the aforementioned dry air should put a kibosh on any precipitation. As the front approached the area, falling heights out ahead of the upper level trough should allow for clouds to increase, but with light winds and a very cool vertical temperature profile in place, overnight lows should drop to below-normal levels, with low to mid 60’s likely for most of the area, and 50’s possible for areas further away from the coast.

This evenings latest regional radar mosaic, HRES visible satellite imagery, and surface observations showing relatively calm conditions, with some showers and thunderstorms to the north and west (Courtesy of College of DuPage)

This evenings latest regional radar mosaic, HRES visible satellite imagery, and surface observations showing relatively calm conditions, with some showers and thunderstorms to the north and west (Courtesy of College of DuPage)

Tuesday morning should feature mostly sunny skies to start the day as a cold front begins to move through the region. By the late morning to early afternoon hours, the anomalously strong trough centered to our north and west will continue to move east and be overtop the area, with very cool mid level temperatures. These cold mid level temperatures will become important tomorrow afternoon as the surface temperatures begin to rapidly warm up, causing a very healthy amount of rising motion in the atmosphere. Combined with very marginal instability, we could see one or two showers or even an isolated thunderstorm pop tomorrow afternoon, but due to continued dry mid levels of the atmosphere and the overall lack of a trigger, the most likely outcome is that clouds should begin to increase, with cumulus clouds becoming quite numerous by the late afternoon. With the cooler mid level temperatures in place and light southerly/southwesterly winds expected to be in place, high temperatures should be able to reach into the mid to upper 70’s, with some areas possibly even hitting the 80 degree mark with prolonged sun.

Otherwise, skies should begin to clear and winds should become calm as an area of high pressure begins to build in behind the cold front to our west. This high pressure system will usher in another cool and dry airmass for the region, which should allow quite favorable conditions for radiational cooling to take place during the evening hours tomorrow. This should allow temperatures to drop into the lower 60’s and even the 50’s once again!

This afternoons high resolution North American model showing a very pleasant day on Tuesday afternoon just before a cold front works its way on in from the west, bringing yet another mild and dry airmass (Courtesy of Tomer Burg)

This afternoons high resolution North American model showing a very pleasant day on Tuesday afternoon just before a cold front works its way on in from the west, bringing yet another mild and dry airmass (Courtesy of Tomer Burg)

Wednesday and Beyond

Wednesday will likely start off rather calm as an area of mid level ridging begins to build and move eastward during the day, with high pressure mainly in control. This should allow for mostly sunny skies and light winds from the south/southwest to take over during the day, which will likely bring temperatures in the upper 70’s to the lower 80’s for some of the more southern locations. All in all, Wednesday should be a rather beautiful day, with slightly below-normal highs and building clouds later in the day and approaching the evenings hours as a warm front begins to advance east.

By Thursday, the riding should become stationary over area and make little if any forward progress during the day, so expect winds to become a bit steadier from the southwest. Temperatures aloft will also begin to warm quite a bit, so temperatures will likely be able to climb into the low to middle 80’s during the day Thursday with mostly sunny conditions expected.

As we get towards the end of the week on Friday, its looking likely that precipitation chances will be on the increase as the area of high pressure along the east coast shifts eastward and allows rich tropical moisture to bleed northward once again. Temperatures will also be on the increase, with highs likely getting into the middle to upper 80’s, with some locations likely hitting that 90-degree mark as well. Friday appears to have more organized instability, better shear, and a more coherent trigger than any day this week, so we do feel that there is an increased risk of strong to possibly severe thunderstorms during the day on Friday, but we will have to revisit this later in the week. Otherwise, this pattern looks to continue through the weekend before another high pressure system moves through and brings a more mild airmass in time for the beginning of next week.

This afternoons European Ensembles showing an increased potential for above normal temperatures by the end of this week and into this weekend (Courtesy of TropicalTidbits)

This afternoons European Ensembles showing an increased potential for above normal temperatures by the end of this week and into this weekend (Courtesy of TropicalTidbits)

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Have a great evening!

Steve Copertino

Steven Copertino

Public Analysis: Unsettled Conditions Continue, Keeping An Eye on Tropical Storm Cindy

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Good Evening! 

As discussed back on Monday, some residual moisture and weak instability worked its way into the area during the morning and afternoon hours, and when coupled with some forcing just to our northeast, we saw scattered showers and thunderstorms develop across much of the region. These showers and thunderstorms had some decent dynamics to work with, with wind shear being high, lapse rates being quite steep, and the upper level jet streak being located in a favorable position for divergence aloft. Since these conditions came together just at the right time, we actually saw some strong to locally severe thunderstorms develop over New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and portions of Connecticut. A segment developed in Pennsylvania and went on to track east, leaving numerous wind damage reports in its wake. Further north, isolated cells developed over southern New York and went on to track into Connecticut, which brought a few small hail reports and isolated wind damage reports.

As of right now, these storms have begun to weaken and are moving off the coast as the best dynamics and instability begin to fade away. Despite the storms and occasional cloudiness, temperatures were able to rise into the low to middle 80’s across much of the area. The cold front which acted as the lifting mechanism for today’s storms will begin to move through the region and bring a drier airmass in its wake later this evening. Clouds should begin to diminish by sunset, which should allow temperatures to fall back down into the 60’s tonight, with lows in the 50’s possible farther north and east of the city.

This evenings latest high resolution visible satellite imagery, regional radar mosaic, and surface station plots, showing the bulk of the shower and thunderstorm activity pushing to the east.

This evenings latest high resolution visible satellite imagery, regional radar mosaic, and surface station plots, showing the bulk of the shower and thunderstorm activity pushing to the east.

Thursday into Friday 

Thursday should start off as a rather beautiful day with low humidity, clear skies, and light winds from the west. Weak high pressure at the surface and aloft will allow the area to stay mostly-sunny during the day tomorrow, with just some upper level cirrus clouds likely approaching the area. Temperatures aloft will be rather mild thanks to the ridging overhead, so expect to see highs in the low to middle 80’s once again tomorrow, except this time it will feel more pleasant due to the lower dew points. Later in the evening tomorrow, low level moisture advection will begin to overspread the area due to a weak warm front aloft. This moisture will be quite rich in nature, as the majority of it is being fed from the deep south and portions of the Gulf of Mexico thanks to Tropical Storm Cindy. Some elevated showers and thunderstorms may try to develop late tomorrow evening as the moisture feed begins to overspread the region, but at the very least it seems likely that clouds will increase in earnest tomorrow night. The increased cloudy skies and rich moisture feed will lead to low temperatures not really being able to fall all that much, with temperatures in the low 70’s likely across most of the area.

This afternoons Rapid Precision model, showing the potential for heavy rains associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Cindy to affect the region on Friday and into Saturday (Credit: WSI)

This afternoons Rapid Precision model, showing the potential for heavy rains associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Cindy to affect the region on Friday and into Saturday (Credit: WSI)

The forecast on Friday becomes quite complex as a strong northern stream disturbance begins to interact with the remnants of Tropical Storm Cindy, which will likely be situated over the Ozarks by Friday morning. The aforementioned warm front that we talked about for Thursday evening should be through the area by Friday afternoon, leaving most of the area with partly cloudy skies and warm temperatures once again.

Highs will likely be able to climb into the middle 80’s with ease, but the increasing moisture from the south will also raise the dewpoints over the area, possibly making for a very muggy afternoon. With sunshine likely during the afternoon hours and an abundance of moisture also in place, instability will build over the area, and will be accompanied by some modest wind shear over the area. The pieces will be in place for heavy showers and thunderstorms to go up over the area during the afternoon hours, but the item in question will be whether or not we have a direct trigger to set off any storms. At this time, it appears likely that an adequate amount of mid level energy will be in place to set off the development of some isolated showers and thunderstorms capable of producing gusty winds and very heavy rainfall rates, possibly causing some localized flooding.

As we head into the late afternoon and evening, the threat for more showers and thunderstorms will increase markedly as the direct remnant moisture from Tropical Storm Cindy begin to crash into a cold front located to our west. Again, the main question that will be determining whether or not we see widespread heavy rainfall comes down the need for a “trigger” mechanism. One possible outcome is that Cindy deteriorates after making landfall to the point that the systems energy is dissipated, and all that is left is just some moisture. This outcome would lead to showers and thunderstorms being more scattered during the later portion of Friday, but still have the potential for heavy, tropical downpours.

The second option would be that Cindy does maintain itself as a coherent and trackable system in at least the mid levels of the atmosphere. This would allow the residual lift from the decaying tropical storm to spark numerous showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon hours of Friday, and would carry a much greater threat of torrential downpours and localized flooding concerns. At this time, it is looking likely that what will happen will be a healthy blend of both scenarios, with Cindy retaining some mid level energy that will set off heavy showers and storms just to the west of the NYC area, which will have the potential to track eastward and put down some impressive rainfall totals in a short period of time. This solution is baked up by this afternoons European model and the American model. Since Cindy has not yet made landfall, this solution may still change, so be sure to stay up to date and check back again over the coming days! Also, please keep an eye on the latest NWS products in the event that Flood Watches are issued down the line.

Image showing very impressive amounts of water vapor being advected north over our area, which will greatly increase the threat of heavy showers and thunderstorms.

Image showing very impressive amounts of water vapor being advected north over our area, which will greatly increase the threat of heavy showers and thunderstorms.

Saturday and Beyond

Heavy showers and storms may continue into the early morning hours of Saturday and possibly even the afternoon as the cold front pushes through the area, dragging the rest of the deep tropical moisture with it. There are still some model difference on fast the cold front with tropical moisture moves offshore Saturday afternoon. If the front is slower, a more showers and thunderstorms could linger into Saturday afternoon. But latest model trends have been faster, so we are still leaning to more clearing skies by Saturday afternoon. More sunshine will help temperatures rise into middle 80s on Saturday afternoon.

The cold front and its associated moisture should then begin to shift well offshore, leaving an area of weak high pressure in its wake. Sunday should be quite pleasant, with clearing skies and highs in the lower 80’s, also accompanied by a much more comfortable airmass.

An active northern stream will keep conditions relatively unsettled for the foreseeable future, with a chance at a cool-down later in the week as well.

This afternoons European ensemble mean showing a shot at some cooler weather into the middle portion of next week (Courtesy of WeatherBell)

This afternoons European ensemble mean showing a shot at some cooler weather into the middle portion of next week (Courtesy of WeatherBell)

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Have a great evening!

Steve Copertino

Steven Copertino

Public Analysis: Severe Thunderstorms Ending This Evening, More Unsettled Weather Possible

/by

Good Evening! 

Over the past few hours or so we have seen the development of multiple rounds of strong to locally severe thunderstorms over much of the Northeast. These storms formed just ahead of a cold front located over portions of central Pennsylvania, with moderate to strong instability ahead of this front as well as some sufficient upper level dynamics superimposed over the Northeast. Some early morning storms were noted over portions of Northeast Pennsylvania, Northern New Jersey, and Southern Connecticut, but these storms were mainly heavy rain producers as the environment was not sufficiently destabilized from daytime heating yet.

At the time of this article, the last batch of strong thunderstorms were winding down over much of the area as the loss of surface heating in addition to the storms interacting with the marine air closer to the coast caused them to weaken quite a bit. From what we can tell as of right now, the vast majority of the storm reports from this afternoon were in the form of wind damage, although there have been very isolated reports that a tornado may have touched down in Berks County, Pennsylvania. This report will likely have to be confirmed by the NWS in the coming day. Otherwise, most of the wind damage was restricted to trees, which is quite common this time of year as saturated grounds and a full canopy of leaves can often lead to trees getting knocked onto property, or limbs being blow into power lines.

The main reason that today really lacked the “punch” of some of the more impressive severe weather events can be linked to two main things. First off, the amount of precipitatable water in the atmosphere was extremely high (on the order of 2″ in some places) and the lapse rates were quite low (the change of temperature as you get higher in altitude, which creates more substantial thunderstorm updrafts). This combination allowed the area to experience more tropical downpours than anything, as all the water would gather in the atmosphere, and due to the lack of strong updrafts, would quickly collapse to the surface, bringing very heavy rain and strong wind gusts. Another element that seems to have caused a rather lackluster event was the fact that we saw clouds develop early in the afternoon hours, which really limited the amount of surface heating that could occur before thunderstorms started to blossom over the area. Had there been more distinct clearing ahead of the main line, this event would have likely produces numerous/widespread wind damage reports over the region.

This evenings latest radar satellite and surface observations showing some heavy thunderstorms still over the region. These storms will likely be capable of producing torrential downpours and some gusty winds.

This evenings latest radar satellite and surface observations showing some heavy thunderstorms still over the region. These storms will likely be capable of producing torrential downpours and some gusty winds.

Storms will likely continue through the overnight hours for some southern and eastern locations as strong upper level divergence allows the strong tropical moisture to form heavy showers along any remaining convergence boundaries that are left over the region. The main threat from these showers and thunderstorms will likely be limited to very heavy rain and frequent lightning, though some strong winds cannot be completely ruled out just yet. Any lingering showers and thunderstorms should begin to gradually fade and shift eastward late this evening and into the very early morning hours as a cold front continues to press over the area.

Tuesday morning should start off relatively dry as stout westerly winds usher in a much drier air-mass than what we have been dealing with over the past few days. With this direr air aloft in place, much of the area should experience mostly sunny conditions, with some gusty winds developing by the late morning and afternoon hours in response to a vertical temperature gradient brought about by a mid level trough passing to our north. Despite the gusty winds, tomorrow will still have some degree of humidity left to it, though it won’t be able to rise to levels even close to the past few days. These combined condition’s should allow temperatures to rise into the low to middle 80’s across the entire region.

Wednesday will feature much of the same as the previous day, with early morning clear skies, giving way to some cumulus clouds likely developing by the mid afternoon hours. With some weak instability and moisture in place and a trigger to the north, we may see some scattered shower and thunderstorm development over the Northwestern portions of the region during the afternoon hours. The main threats from these showers and potential storms looks to be heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Highs on Wednesday will likely be able to climb at least into the upper 70’s, with lower to middle 80’s quite likely for inland locations.

This evenings latest Rapid Precision Model showing scattered showers, and possibly even a shallow thunderstorm or two developing during the afternoon hours on Wednesday (Courtesy of WSI)

This evenings latest Rapid Precision Model showing scattered showers, and possibly even a shallow thunderstorm or two developing during the afternoon hours on Wednesday (Courtesy of WSI)

Thursday and Beyond

An area of mid level ridging is likely to build over the region into Thursday and Friday, which should allow more sunny weather and warm temperatures to persist. Temperatures should easily be able to rise into the lower to middle 80’s for both days, with a chance at some afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible as moisture from down south begins to head towards our region.

This moisture is associated with what is currently “Potential Tropical Cyclone 3”-or the precursor to a tropical storm. This system was located over the central Gulf of Mexico as of 5pm EST with winds of 40 mph. This system is very large in nature and still lacks an organized low level circulation-though there are some indication that the system is trying to get its act together. This system will likely move north, and then west north west over the next 36-48 hours while lashing the Gulf Coast with copious amounts of heavy rain and gusty winds. By Wednesday or so, the system should be close to landfall along the Gulf Coast as a mid range tropical storm with winds likely around 50-60 mph.

After this system makes landfall along the Gulf Coast, the abundant moisture from this system will likely linger around the southeast for a day before a storm system moving through the Great Lakes drags a cold front through that area and potentially funnels that moisture towards our area in time for the weekend. Such a scenario could bring heavy tropical downpours on Saturday and Sunday, but at this time confidence is very low in such a scenario. We will continue to monitor this situation over the next few days and provide updates as needed!

This afternoons European model showing the potential tropical cyclones residual moisture being entrained along a cold front. There is a possibility that this moisture could eventually wind up over the Northeast later this weekend

This afternoons European model showing the potential tropical cyclones residual moisture being entrained along a cold front. There is a possibility that this moisture could eventually wind up over the Northeast later this weekend

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Have a great evening!

Steve Copertino

Steven Copertino

Public Analysis: Seasonable Temperatures Return, Turning Unsettled Once Again

/by

Good Evening! 

Though high temperatures this afternoon were not quite as oppressive and did not reach the 90 degree mark to continue to the heat wave, it was still a few degrees above normal across the majority of the region which helped to keep that summer feel around for another day. The theme of much-above normal temperatures is likely to be over for at least the medium range as Thursday and Friday will feature an appreciable drop in high temperatures-with some locations possibly struggling to get out of the upper 60’s on Friday! This weekend looks to have some rebounding of temperatures on Saturday and Sunday, but these will be highly dependent on the degree of unsettled weather that each day will likely feature. Finally, the start to the workweek on Monday be a wet, and possibly stormy one as a frontal system works through the area during the day.

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This Evening Into Thursday 

Some scattered showers moved through the immediate New York Metro area early this morning, producing locally moderate to heavy patches of rain. As storms last night died off in Northwestern New Jersey, they left a pool of residual moisture and instability that waited until the sun rose for showers to once again take off.

These showers gradually progressed to the south and west, leaving generally sunny skies over the entire region. Clearing skies and winds from the east due to an area of high pressure over New England led to a warm, but not overly warm day today. Highs generally ranged in the low to mid 80’s, with coastal locations seeing highs a few degrees lower. Some patches of ragged cumulus clouds attempted to pop up during the late afternoon hours, but these were not long for this world as the stable air associated with the maritime airmass quickly knocked these back down before they could develop further. Mostly clear skies, light winds, and decreasing dewpoints should last through sunset and into the evening hours tonight, allowing temperatures to drop down into the upper 50’s to lower 60’s for lows tonight.

This afternoons latest available high resolution true-color visible satellite imagery, regional radar mosaic, and surface temperatures, showing a rather tranquil and warm late-afternoon (GOES-16 imagery Preliminary and Non-Operational)

This afternoons latest available high resolution true-color visible satellite imagery, regional radar mosaic, and surface temperatures, showing a rather tranquil and warm late-afternoon (GOES-16 imagery Preliminary and Non-Operational)

As we start the day tomorrow, conditions should be mostly sunny with more concentrated clouds and showers possible over far northwestern New Jersey and Northern Pennsylvania. One thing that will be almost immediately noticeable during the late morning and early afternoon hours tomorrow, will the much lower levels of humidity. The easterly winds being ushered in by an area of high pressure over New England will provide yet another push of stable/maritime air-which should not only limit tomorrows temperatures, but also provide a chance of increasing clouds throughout the day tomorrow as the cool maritime air near the surface runs into increased levels of moisture in the middle layers of the atmosphere. With the maritime airmass in control and the threat of increased cloudiness, high temperatures tomorrow will likely be a good deal lower than they were over the past few day. Highs should range in the middle to upper 70’s-with some locations that see prolonged sun possibly getting into the 80 degree territory.

Shower will likely be confined to the far northwestern locations of New Jersey and possibly portions of southern New York, as they will be under less influence from the maritime airamss. Clouds will continue to increase through the evening hours, becoming overcast by late evening. As the area of high pressure over New England begins to retreat east, a frontal boundary over the Delmarva will shift low level winds from the east/east-southeast and usher in some more robust low level moisture. Showers may begin to form along the coast during the evening hours, but these will likely be scattered in nature.

This afternoons GFS model showing the eastward progression of the high pressure system leading to a frontal boundary over the Delmarva peninsula increasing low level easterly/southeasterly winds. At the very least, increased clouds are expected Thursday evening (Courtesy Tomer Burg UAlbany)

This afternoons GFS model showing the eastward progression of the high pressure system leading to a frontal boundary over the Delmarva peninsula increasing low level easterly/southeasterly winds. At the very least, increased clouds are expected Thursday evening (Courtesy Tomer Burg UAlbany)

Friday Into Saturday 

Friday looks to start off rather unsettled and cloudy for most of the area as low level moisture from the south and east continues to increase through the morning hours. As moisture continues to increase, an area of energy associated with a large, but slow-moving upper level low over Canada will begin to move towards the area during the afternoon hours. Though there will be ample moisture in place, and a “trigger” in place to set off any potential showers and thunderstorms, the onshore flow from the Atlantic may act to push the best areas of lift inland over portions of Northwestern New Jersey-possibly even into New York state. The model diverge significantly on where the best moisture convergence/showers will be during the day on Friday, but at this time it appears likely that the best threat for steadier rains will be located just inland over portions of Northeast Pennsylvania, Northwestern New Jersey, and Southern New York. This will likely have to be looked at again tomorrow, as though there is a frontal boundary in place, we have seen the model guidance severely underestimate just how much a maritime airmass can advance, which in turn will determine the location of the best threat of rain.

Any showers that do develop during the day on Friday should move east/northeast during the late afternoon and into the evening hours, gradually diminishing as time progresses. Highs on Friday will be highly dependent on how much cloud cover takes hold, and whether or not sustained precipitation develops, but highs should range in the low to middle 70’s, with some locations not being able to make it out of the 60’s!

Saturday will likely be another unsettled day, as the frontal boundary that was located to our south on Friday, lifts up and over the region as a warm front during the day. This will lead to increase in temperatures, but with ample moisture and weak lift, some showers in the morning and possibly even a thunderstorm will be quite possible during the afternoon hours. Highs will likely make a slight rebound back into the upper 70’s to lower 80’s across much of the region.

This afternoons European model showing a large upper level trough moving in from the Pacific Northwest , strengthening over the Great Lakes region and providing multiple chances of rain on both Sunday and Monday

This afternoons European model showing a large upper level trough moving in from the Pacific Northwest , strengthening over the Great Lakes region and providing multiple chances of rain on both Sunday and Monday

Fathers Day and Beyond 

During the day on Sunday, a large upper level trough our to west will be heading east/northeast in the Great Lakes region while strengthening. This strengthening area of low pressure will spawn a large cold front that will likely be located far to our west during Sunday. Ahead of this front should exist some more instability over the region, but with the main trigger-the cold front located far to our west, it may be rather hard to get actual showers and thunderstorms to pop during the day. Assuming the front does take its time in getting to the region, skies should generally be sunny during the day, which should allow for highs to reach into the low to middle 80’s.

As the front and the best forcing begins to make its way into the region during the day on Monday, instability and moisture should be more than sufficient for shower and thunderstorm development across the area, with some storms possibly being strong to severe in nature. The overall level of severity will rely strongly on the timing of this front, as strong surface heating and destabilization would lead to stronger storms. At this time, it appears that the main threat with any showers and thunderstorms will be gusty winds and heavy rainfall, but this threat will have to be monitored over the next few days.

For more information and posts like this one, make sure you sign up for Zone Forecasts — where multiple detailed articles, videos, and interactives are posted each day. Also, come interact with our staff and many other weather enthusiasts at 33andrain.com!

Have a great evening!

Steve Copertino