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John Homenuk

TS Karen forms, pleasant pattern may end soon

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The last several days, spilling even into the past several weeks, have featured pleasant weather on average with little precipitation and abundant sunshine. In fact, not only has the weather been pleasant and free of any major storm systems — it has also offered a bit of something for everyone. Cool nights, featuring lows near or below freezing in the suburbs, were the story a week ago. Two to three weeks ago, temperatures reached near 90 with a brief burst of heat. Again this week, temperatures have climbed into the middle 80’s. One thing has remained consistent, however: There has been lots of sun, and very little precipitation. The benign weather pattern finally looks to come to an end, however brief, early next week. In fact, the changes begin on Friday as clouds increase and a weak mid level disturbance brings a chance of showers.

Tropical Storm Karen formed early this morning, and is seen here entering the Gulf of Mexico at 8am 10/3/2013.

Tropical Storm Karen formed early this morning, and is seen here entering the Gulf of Mexico at 8am 10/3/2013.

Tropical Storm Karen formed early this morning, after forecasters tracked the disturbance from the Caribbean towards the Gulf of Mexico. Karen is forecast to track northeastward towards the Gulf Coast states late this weekend into early next week. Meanwhile, a mid level trough over the Central United States will be shifting eastward towards the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. The timing of the two features remains somewhat uncertain, but forecast models indicate the potential for tropical remnants and heavy rain to track up the coast early next week.

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John Homenuk

Are predictions of an active hurricane season in danger?

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We haven’t seen a single Atlantic hurricane yet this season. This is a fact. It isn’t one that should cause a terrible amount of panic for those who predicted an active hurricane season this year, however. What should cause significant concern is the impending outbreak of African Dust in the Tropical Atlantic which should effectively inhibit the development of any hurricanes or well organized tropical systems coming off the African coast in the next week.  That will bring us into the middle of September without a single hurricane, barring a Western Atlantic or Gulf development which also seems highly unlikely during that time frame.

Forecast models are indicating another massive outbreak of African dust traveling across the tropical Atlantic this week.

Forecast models are indicating another massive outbreak of African dust traveling across the tropical Atlantic this week. Image courtesy weatherbell.

Why exactly is this African dust important? The dust is more commonly known as SAL (Saharan Air Layer), and outbreaks often occur with changing atmospheric patterns in Africa.  The SAL is known for its extremely dry air and dust content, which more often than not inhibits the development of organized thunderstorms/convection, leading to a complete lack of tropical cyclones.

Larger concentrations of dust in the air can also act as a “blanket” which restricts the sun from reaching the surface. The dust can cool temperatures of the surface, and even the sea by up to 0.5 to 1 degree cooler than average. Although some studies point to dust contributing to additional cloud development, the dry air layer often negates this development.

With the massive dust storm forecast in the Tropical Atlantic over the next few days, it seems that an above average Atlantic hurricane season is becoming less and less likely. It is hard to rule anything out in the world of meteorology nowadays, but if an above average 2013 Atlantic hurricane occurs, it will certainly be a late bloomer.

 

John Homenuk

Tropical rains continue, messy PM commute likely

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[alert type=”error”]Flash Flood Watch in effect through Saturday | Hazardous Weather Briefing for T.S Andrea is now available. [/alert]

Tropical Storm Andrea, which still had maximum sustained winds of 40 miles per hour and was located over South Carolina as of 11am, was bringing widespread tropical moisture and rainfall to much of the East Coast early this afternoon. As she continues to move north and east (and eventually become post tropical) the center of the low pressure will pass off the Mid-Atlantic coast and then over or near Cape Cod on Saturday. To the northwest of the surface low, heavy tropical rains are expected — which places our area in a high probability for a prolonged heavy rain event.

Tropical Storm Andrea, as seen on visible satellite June 7th, 2013. Andrea was moving northeast and continued to pack maximum sustained winds of 40 miles per hour.

Tropical Storm Andrea, as seen on visible satellite June 7th, 2013. Andrea was moving northeast and continued to pack maximum sustained winds of 40 miles per hour.

Through Tonight: Heavy rain likely, especially after 2pm. A thunderstorm is also possible. Temperatures topping out in the upper 60’s this afternoon, but only falling into the low 60’s overnight. East winds around 15 miles per hour. A washout — bring an umbrella and a rain coat if you have to head out.

Friday PM commute will be a messy one: With a few inches of rain already recorded in the area, and the heaviest rain expected to begin around the evening commute on Friday, you can expect delays (some major) on roads that do not handle the rain well. Flooding is expected on low lying roads and poor drainage roads. Drive carefully in the heavy rain as well, as visibilities will be reduced especially on highways.

Looking ahead: The forecast remains wet through Saturday morning, but some clearing is possible by Saturday afternoon as the system moves out of the area fairly rapidly. Showers and maybe a thunderstorm are still possible through Saturday evening. Sunday looks to be the winner of the weekend, with highs in the upper 70’s to low 80’s and partly cloudy skies.

Increasing clouds, tropical rains late week

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[alert type=”error”]Hazardous Weather Briefing for T.S Andrea is now available. [/alert]

Tropical Storm Andrea formed last night in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico, and has strengthened into a system with maximum sustained winds of 60 miles per hour. Andrea is forecast to head northward, making landfall on the Florida Gulf Coast later today. More importantly for our area, she will then scoot north and east to a point off the Mid-Atlantic Coast late Friday Night into early Saturday morning. As she is absorbed into a mid level trough which will be scooting across the Ohio Valley, the surface low pressure associated with Andrea will likely feature the potential for heavy tropical rains on the west side of it.

After a good start to Thursday, we are expecting the potential for rain to increase — with mid and high clouds building into the area. Friday and Saturday could both feature periods of heavy tropical rains, with plenty of moisture and humidity and the potential for some thunderstorms as well.

Thursday: Partly cloudy early, becoming mostly cloudy late. Highs in the lower 70’s. Southeast wind around 10 miles per hour. E njoy the sun while you can!

Thursday Night: Cloudy with rain likely, becoming heavy at times late. Lows near 60. East wind around 10 to 15 miles per hour. Bring a rain coat, but you won’t be too chilly — the humidity will increase.

Friday: Heavy rain likely, with a high near 71. East winds around 10 miles per hour. A washout of a day for sure . Bring an umbrella and a rain coat — it will be a soaker.

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