Posts

John Homenuk

Joaquin likely to impact US East Coast, local impacts uncertain

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Hurricane Joaquin strengthened this morning, with maximum sustained winds of 80 miles per hour, in the Caribbean. The hurricane is expected to strengthen further over the next few days as it meanders in the Southwest Atlantic. Warm waters and minimal shear will continue to support storm organization. Thereafter, Joaquin is expected to make a turn northward, moving into the Southwest Atlantic Ocean. As it does so, an energetic disturbance over the Southeast States will race toward the storm. As the two phase, Joaquin is expected to accelerate and make a rapid turn west toward the Mid-Atlantic coast.

Exactly where the storm tracks, and how strong it is, remains highly uncertain at the present time. Forecast models are struggling with intricate details of the atmospheric setup. Unsurprisingly, small changes in the atmospheric interactions will have big changes on the eventual outcome and effects along the East Coast. The potential envelope of solutions remains extremely large — and so this post will attempt to explain the atmospheric setup, potential scenarios, and possible hazards in our area

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John Homenuk

TS Claudette forms, expected to head seaward

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Tropical Storm Claudette formed this afternoon, amid a noticeably quiet Atlantic Hurricane Season, to the south of Nantucket. Claudette had been monitored by the National Hurricane Center for the past several days as a potential disturbance, and today it obtained the tropical characteristics necessary to be classified as a Tropical Storm with maximum sustained winds over 45miles per horu.

The Tropical Storm won’t be a threat to any United States shores, however. A developing mid level atmospheric trough will act to steer the system seaward over the next 12 to 24 hours. At the same time, atmospheric shear will increase and the system will head toward cooler ocean waters. Subsequently, weakening is anticipated as Claudette moves northeast in the next 24 hours.

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John Homenuk

Pictures, videos of Hurricane Odile slamming Mexico

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Hurricane Odile slammed into the Baja Peninsula this weekend, tied for the strongest hurricane ever to impact them in recorded history. The powerful storm was packing sustained winds of 125 miles per hour with with higher gusts as its center passed extremely close to Cabo San Lucas on Sunday Night. The storm has weakened today, but is still churning northwestward. Over the next few days, it will turn eastward as a result of mid level interactions in the atmosphere — and bring the potential for historical rains to parts of the Southwestern United States — Nevada, Arizona and New Mexico.

Pictures and videos of the devastation from the hurricane’s impact along the Baja Peninsula are being posted, submitted and shared at an increasing volume this afternoon. Some of them are compiled below — and we’ll continue to add them as we receive them over the next few days.

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John Homenuk

A bit more unsettled today, Karen disorganized

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Warmer temperatures have been the trend over the past few days — and the pleasant streak of weather we have experienced over the last few weeks now looks to take a brief respite as we head into the weekend and the early part of next week. Increasing humidity today, coupled with a nearby boundary and mid-level atmospheric disturbance will mean increasing clouds and the chance for showers and an isolated thunderstorm. Showers and storms haven’t been around in a while — in fact, almost two weeks (more in some spots). Today will bring isolated to scattered showers and storms throughout the area from west to east, but the main story will be the humid feeling air and presence of more clouds than sun.

US Water Vapor satellite imagery, frontal positions, and SPC severe weather outlook from the morning of October 4 2013. A disorganized T.S Karen is seen in the Gulf of Mexico.

US Water Vapor satellite imagery, frontal positions, and SPC severe weather outlook from the morning of October 4 2013. A disorganized T.S Karen is seen in the Gulf of Mexico.

The unsettled weather will continue through later tonight, but only scattered showers are expected this weekend. The main story will then be the remnants of Tropical Storm Karen, and whether they track close enough to our area up the East Coast early next week to provide tropical rains. Forecast models have diverged in solutions, with some showing tropical rains and some wind while others now shunt the remnants of the system eastward out to sea.

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