Warmup Archives - Page 3 of 5 - New York Metro Weather

April off to a wonderful start with warming trend

April 1, 2014/0 Comments/by John Homenuk

Maybe it’s best that we just forget about March as a whole. The only people who would’ve enjoyed March 2014 are those who enjoy cold temperatures and no snow — a rare breed — and so most were lift disappointed and chilly. Spring got off to a slow start, with temperatures running 4 to 6 degrees below average during the month of March. And there was almost no snow to speak of in New York City despite multiple chances for accumulating snowfall. April, on the contrary, will get off to a great start. Temperatures in the mid 50’s to near 60 on Tuesday will mark the beginning of a warming trend which will continue into the middle of the work week.

High temperatures by Wednesday should eclipse the lower 60’s in many locations, as westerly winds and warming mid level temperatures with full sunshine allow for the warm air currently over the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys to advect eastward. Par for the course this time of year, things will be a bit cooler near the area beaches and shores. Despite the westerly winds, cold ocean waters make it very difficult for coastal locations to stay warm throughout the day in April. By the end of the week, the forecast gets a little bit more dicey with an approaching warm front and the potential for some backdoor-front action from New England.

HRRR model showing high temperatures exceeding 60 degrees west of NYC on Tuesday.

Warmup begins, brings unsettled weather

March 27, 2014/0 Comments/by John Homenuk

After a powerful Nor’Easter which featured a minimum central pressure of 955mb and wind gusts over 80mph on Nantucket, cold air swept back into the area late Wednesday into Thursday. Wind gusts in our area were more modest, but still over 30 mph in many spots. The cold airmass which moved into the area helped us set records of our own on Thursday morning. LaGuardia, Newark and Kennedy airports all set record low temperatures for the day, breaking records which were set during a similar cold snap in 2001. The departure from normal temperature remained more impressive than the actual surface temperatures, which actually only fell into the low 20’s. Normal lows this time of year, however, are in the mid to upper 30’s.

Fortunately, the colder than normal airmass will fall victim to a very progressive pattern, and is already on its way out. Temperatures on Thursday afternoon will rise into the 40’s to near 50 in many areas, under full sunshine and warming temperatures aloft. A continued warmup is expected from Saturday through the early part of next week. However, with the warmth will come southerly winds, increased moisture and a few low pressure systems which will do their part to provide the area with unsettled weather and multiple chances for rain.

GFS model showing a parade of systems moving eastward from the Pacific into the United States.

Clouds, rain preclude late week warmup

March 19, 2014/0 Comments/by John Homenuk

A relentless winter pattern will come to a brief respite during the latter half of the work week and into the weekend, news which many have longed to hear. However brief the warmup may be, it will come with impeccable timing as calendar spring officially begins on Thursday March 21st. Nevertheless, it will come with a price as the second half of Wednesday will feature thickening clouds and a high likelihood of showers and periods of steady rain. A weak low pressure system developing nearby will help provide sufficent lift for a period of steady rain, developing from southwest to northeast later on Wednesday afternoon.

With the passage of a weak front and the aforementioned low pressure system by Thursday morning, will come a modifying airmass and (finally) a lack of new cold or arctic air. High temperatures, as a result, will reach into the 50’s on Thursday and Friday. Mid level ridging developing overhead late Friday night into Saturday will help to raise mid level temperatures additionally, so high temperatures are expected to approach 60 degrees early Saturday afternoon.

Simulated radar imagery for mid-evening on Wednesday showing widespread rain in the area.

Mid-Atlantic snowstorm departs, temperatures moderate

March 17, 2014/0 Comments/by John Homenuk

Could this finally be the end? For the second storm in a row, dry air won out over much of Northern NJ, New York City and Southern New England causing any significant snowfall to be relegated to the Mid Atlantic states. A low pressure system developing off the coast from the Tennessee Valley brought bands of heavy snow as far north as Southern and Central NJ. 7-10″ of snow fell from Washington DC through parts of suburban Maryland into Southern NJ. and as the low pressure system exits off the coast on Monday, forecast models show very little threat for winter precipitation in the near future for the first time in months.

Despite the lack of winter storm threats, which appears to finally be coming to fruition after several straight weeks of snow potential in a row, the pattern is likely to remain cold with only brief spurts of warmth through the end of the month. The consistently elongating and morphing lobe of the Polar Vortex will remain in Eastern Canada, owing to a persistently anomalous Pacific pattern. But over time, models agree that the cold will become less starling and the chances for snow will decrease. For the first time, it looks like the proverbial light at the end of this year’s endless tunnel of winter is in clear view.

Regional radar imagery from 9:00am Monday March 17, 2014 showing snow moving southeast of NYC and out to sea. Image courtesy weather tap.

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