Warmup Archives - Page 4 of 5 - New York Metro Weather

Transient warmup expected this weekend

March 14, 2014/0 Comments/by John Homenuk

After a frontal passage which brought the return of arctic air earlier this week, temperatures plummeted and winds picked up fairly dramatically leading to unpleasant conditions with much below normal temperatures. Highs in the 20’s and 30’s have been common for the past few days, with wind chill values below that and the air feeling more like it typically would in mid January as opposed to mid March. The warmup which we experienced this past weekend has become a distant memory of sorts.

This weekend, luckily, will feature another warmup however brief it may be. Temperatures on Friday will rebound underneath increasing temperatures aloft and plenty of sun. And while a potential winter storm looms early next week, the moderation will continue into Saturday as high temperatures will move into the 50’s. The changing sun angle will make it feel refreshingly warm — but the warmup will be short lived.

NAM model showing highs in the 50’s on Saturday just behind a cold front. Notice the winds picking up out of the west, ushering in a colder airmass for late this weekend.

Super Sunday warmup will be short lived

February 1, 2014/0 Comments/by John Homenuk

Given the nature and degree of the cold snaps so far this winter season, it seems like every warm up deserves a lot of attention. There have only been a few this year (most notably one in December and one in mid January) — and another is on the way this weekend. Conveniently timed during the Super Bowl festivities in New York City, a low pressure system will ride to the north of our area on Sunday providing a warm southerly fetch out ahead of it. The bulk of precipitation associated with the storm looks likely to stay north of our area as well, with just a few showers possible on Sunday. There is also some potential for a period of steady rain early Sunday morning across Southern New Jersey.

Sunday will feature some of the warmest weather in weeks as high temperatures will rise through the 40’s and approach 50 during the day. A cold front will move towards the area Sunday Night — during the Super Bowl — and the wind shift will mark a change (or return) to a colder and more wintry airmass. Northwest winds will usher in much cooler air aloft and at the surface by Sunday Night, with the front moving just east of the area. But the story doesn’t end there. A developing disturbance over the Southern US will shift northeastward along this frontal boundary, potentially resulting in a winter weather event on Monday.

NAM model forecasting high temperatures well into the 40’s on Sunday afternoon.

Warmup continues, peaks Sunday

December 19, 2013/0 Comments/by John Homenuk

Forecast models continue to come into better agreement on the extent of the warmth reaching our area on Sunday, and it seems to be fairly anomalous and will certainly feel dramatically different from what we have experienced over the past several days and weeks. High temperatures are forecast to surge into the 60’s throughout much of the area by late this weekend, as a major storm system drives northward through the Central United States and into the Great Lakes. A warm front will push north of the area during the weekend (providing unsettled weather) but the main story will come after its passage, as southerly winds will bring in very warm air.

The trend towards warmth begins today, as high temperatures will push into the lower 40’s in many locations. For some, especially over the interior, it is the first day above freezing in over a week. But, moreso, Thursday will serve as the first sign of airmass modification, which has not been commonplace in our area recently as arctic intrusions have been relentless. Despite the cold air remaining just to our north over Canada (just because we’re warming up, doesn’t mean it’s depleted) the extent of warm air by this weekend will become quite impressive.

NAM model showing a storm system over the Great Lakes this weekend, with a warm front over New England and very warm air over our area (850mb temperatures 15+ C).

Wintry pattern set to break as big warmup awaits

December 18, 2013/0 Comments/by John Homenuk

It has been a wintry scene throughout the area over the past few weeks. In fact, many areas have exceeded snowfall averages for the first half or winter or more — and calendar winter hasn’t even technically begun yet! Snow fell on four separate occasions throughout the area, with everyone getting a taste of winter. Snow events blanketed Central and Southern New Jersey first, then favored the interior areas, and a clipper as recently as Tuesday brought snow to everyone (albeit light). But the cold and wintry pattern will take a hiatus over the next several days, as a changing pattern brings a big trough into the West and Central United States and allows the Southeast Ridge to flex its muscles.

Forecast models are in good agreement on a warming trend in temperatures each day this week, as the snowcover which currently exists throughout the region will take more of a hit with each passing day and each day of increasing high temperatures. The grand finale will come this weekend, when a surface low is forecast to drive well northwest of the region — and bring strong southerly winds to the area on the south side of a developing warm front. Although some showers, clouds and fog are also likely — these things come with the territory of warmer air this time of year — temperatures are likely to warm into the 60’s on Sunday. There may be potential for record warmth in some areas.

European model showing maximum temperatures on Sunday afternoon, with highs in the upper 60’s throughout the region.

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