Winter weather Archives - Page 4 of 5 - New York Metro Weather

PM Update: One storm out, another one in

December 15, 2013/0 Comments/by John Homenuk

It is often said in the meteorological world that “dry begets dry”. In this case, snow begets snow. Amidst a hemispheric pattern which has historically been unfavorable for snow, multiple snowstorms have driven through the Northeast United States over the past two weeks. Most recently, for obvious reasons, is the snowstorm which occurred just this past Saturday Night into Sunday and left a significant snowfall accumulation in many areas, especially Northern New Jersey, New York City and Southeast New York into Connecticut. But even prior to that, a rare significant December snowfall over Philadelphia and Central New Jersey got winter off to a surprisingly fast start.

Saturday and Sunday’s event was certainly the most significant so far on this young winter’s season, with a significant snowfall and then icing across the interior. It was also the most interesting from a mesoscale perspective, with a dramatic coastal front and mid level warm air advection changing areas over to sleet and freezing rain despite surface temperatures in the 20’s. Regardless, after several inches of snow most areas changed over to rain. The cold air held on longer inland, and was much quicker to scour out near the coast. You can access our official verification map, with plotted totals over our forecast, right here. Attention now turns to a clipper type storm system, which will swing through the area on Tuesday — and forecast models are beginning to hone in on the potential for another light snowfall.

High resolution NAM model showing a period of moderate snow throughout the area on Tuesday morning.

PM Update: Snowstorm winds down, cold air funnels in

December 10, 2013/0 Comments/by John Homenuk

The first snowstorm of the year blanketed much of New Jersey and New York with a few inches of snow on Tuesday, leaving a wintry scene behind. Forecast snowfall totals were fairly accurate — with the general 2-4″ forecast throughout the area serving as a good indicator of what was to come. A brief burst of heavy snow early on Tuesday morning began the event which continued until the middle of the afternoon, before wrapping up as scattered snow showers. Some notable snowfall reports (still preliminary) include: Newark (2.2″), Kennedy Airport (2.0″), and Central Park (1.3″), all daily records for their locations.

A photo taken by Doug Simonian during the heavy snow burst at 10:30am in Rockville Centre, NY.

We will post a separate article sometime tonight or tomorrow recapping the event which will have final snowfall totals, a photo gallery, and a brief analysis as far as what went right and wrong with the forecast. Although for the most part, the snowfall forecast verified, a few spots did not receive as much snow as they could have, due to surface temperatures hovering between 32 and 34 degrees, rather than in the upper 20s to around 30.

Tonight, as the storm system exits stage right, some serious cold air will begin to funnel into the area. Temperatures, both aloft and at the surface, will respond to this changing airmass and arctic intrusion — and the snow cover will help low temperatures plummet tonight. Overnight lows will fall into the teens across much of the interior and real-feel temperatures will fall into the teens in the city as well. Be aware of black ice potential on area roads, as any standing water may quickly freeze over. Wednesday morning will certainly be a shock to the system, and will feel quite wintry!

Today’s 18z GFS valid for tomorrow morning shows low temperatures primarily falling in the teens in the interior, and low 20s in the city. Temperatures on Long Island will be a bit colder than what this model is showing — probably in the low 20s as well. Image credit goes to weatherbell.com.

Winter Storm Warnings issued as snowstorm approaches

December 9, 2013/0 Comments/by John Homenuk

The National Weather Service issued Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories for the entire area on Monday evening, in advance of a light to moderate snowstorm which is expected to impact the area on Tuesday. The Winter Storm Warnings, in effect through 6pm on Tuesday evening, cover much of Southwestern and Central New Jersey as well as the major cities of Philadelphia and Trenton. Elsewhere, Winter Weather Advisories are in effect for the rest of New Jersey, New York City, Southwest Connecticut and Southeast New York. The advisories currently do not include Eastern Long Island or interior New York State.

The watches and advisories were issued in advance of a forecast snowstorm, which will approach the area on Tuesday. A mid level disturbance sliding eastward, and a frontal boundary providing the focal point for enhanced lift and development of precipitation, will set the stage for the event. A band of moderate to heavy snow is forecast to develop by late Tuesday morning, but forecast models have been struggling with the exact placement of the band. Regardless of that bands eventual position, 1-3″ of snow seems increasingly likely throughout the majority of the region. But the heavy snow band, and enhanced forcing within it, provides extra intrigue for potential higher amounts. We break down Tuesday snowfall event with timing, snowfall totals, and hazards information below.

Storm total snowfall forecast (left) and NWS Watches, Warnings and Advisories (right).

Wintry weather continues; More snowfall Tuesday

December 9, 2013/0 Comments/by John Homenuk

A wintry mess was the most fitting way to describe the morning commute on Monday as snow, sleet, and freezing rain provided a myriad of issues with travel. Traffic, accidents, and delays on the area roads and with local mass transit likely lead to a headache for most — if you were able to get in to work or class without an issue, consider yourself lucky. The ice and wintry precipitation caused closures of schools and businesses over the interior, but coastal and urban locations including the NYC Metro were much warmer by morning — allowing for a more wet commute than white.

The disturbance moving through the area will shift northeastward on Monday, ending with scattered showers throughout the area. Colder air will begin to filter in rapidly behind the system on Monday Night. As an early warning, you’ll want to be extra careful on the evening commute and during any overnight travel as well. The falling temperatures could lead to re-freezing of any water on roadways and other surfaces.

But our problems don’t end there. Forecast models have come into better agreement on another disturbance which will shift northeast through the area on Tuesday. Much colder air will have moved into the area both aloft and at the surface, so this storm system looks to provide less difficulties in forecasting precipitation type: Mainly snow. Bands of snow will develop by late morning into afternoon on Tuesday, accumulating initially across the interior ( a little slower to do so on the coast and in the city with warmer ground and surfaces).

Storm Total Snowfall forecast through Tuesday evening. Please note that forecasts are subject to change prior to the event.

Tag Archive for: Winter weather

Posts