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John Homenuk

Live Blog: High impact snowstorm underway

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The National Weather Service has issued widespread Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories as a moderate to high impact snowstorm will impact the majority of the area on Monday. A low pressure system traversing northeastward along a cold front will provide lift for significant precipitation, which will move northeastward into the area. Bands of moderate to heavy precipitation will bring periods of snow, heavy at times, to much of Northern and Central New Jersey. For the latest expected accumulations and information, our live blog below has updates every hour or so:

8:30am Update: Snow continues throughout a vast majority of the forecast area with increasing frontogenic forcing areawide allowing for improved snowfall rates and developing expansion of banding. This will continue for the next few hours and forecast models are in good agreement on increased snowgrowth and potential for more rapid accumulations. Snow is accumulating in all areas despite warm ground, but obviously suburbs are seeing quicker accumulation rates based on fallen liquid observations thus far.

The banding is expected to continue on a southwest to northeast trajectory over the next several hours. HRRR is in good agreement with other short term models on a band of 4-8″ of snow from essentially Hunterdon County NJ through Trenton and northeastward from Monmouth Co to Staten Island NY, including Union, Somerset and Middlesex Counties in NJ. This area is prime for amounts on the higher end of that scale and the models indicate some isolated potential for amounts over 8″. Confidence in that is low and our forecast remains 4-8″ for much of that area into NYC, SW CT and LI.

Farther South in Central and Southeast NJ the transition line from rain to snow continues working south but progress has slowed. Southeast of Mount Holly, rain continues and is expected to continue over the next few hours. Some snow or sleet may mix in during heavier banding. Snow totals are expected to be lower in this area, although there will eventually be a transition to frozen precipitation later today.

Stay tuned over the next few hours and be aware of very hazardous travel. We have included our updated snowfall map below.

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John Homenuk

Video: Explaining the late-week snow potential

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Much has been said over the past several days regarding the potential for a winter weather event and snow accumulation late this week. And in reality, the potential is quite high. Forecast models, however, have been waffling with the potential for a bigger system and one that remains disorganized and is more likely to produce a moderate event. As forecasters, this keeps our confidence in the event rather low. The specific details and intricate interactions between atmospheric disturbances will ultimately determine how the storm forms, where it tracks, and how strong it is. But at this range, forecast guidance will struggle mightily to pin down the details.

To help quiet the noise a bit, we’ve provided a video discussion which breaks down the setup. In this video you’ll find our concerns, thoughts and ideas as we continue to analyze and interpret the data. Despite the uncertainty, we should begin to gain confidence in the eventual outcome of the system over the next 12-24 hours. You can watch the free video by clicking below. If you are on mobile, copy the video link into your browser.

 

Doug Simonian

Live Blog: 12/17/13 Clipper

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3:00pm Update: Precipitation which had changed over to sleet and freezing rain in many areas along the coast and near the city, as a result of a warm layer aloft, will slowly change back to snow from W to E over the next hour. Regional mesoscale analysis shows the potential for one last band of moderate to heavy precipitation as a result of increased lift from the developing coastal system and enhanced support aloft.

This band will shift eastward during the evening commute. We are expected a slippery and wintry commute in many areas, so plan extra time and expect delays.

9:00am Update: Snow has become a bit more spotty in nature throughout the area, so the roads are wet in the city and have likely been treated across the interior. Things are expected to pick up again this afternoon with periods of snow developing and moving northeast from the Mid-Atlantic states into New Jersey and New York..eventually northeastward into Connecticut and Southern New England. Forecast models have been wildly inconsistent with potential development of another coastal low pressure system later this afternoon..so as mentioned a few hours ago, confidence in that is rather low.

That said, seems to be a nowcasting-type situation developing and we’ll be closely monitoring the precipitation, pressure and height trends throughout the day. As of now our forecast remains unchanged with 1-2″ the general consensus throughout the area. All products (brief, discussion, member products) have been updated with the morning package. -JH

HRRR model storm total snowfall forecast through evening on Tuesday.

HRRR model storm total snowfall forecast through evening on Tuesday.

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John Homenuk

Cold and dry start to the week, more snow follows

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A bitterly cold start to the morning on Monday will serve as a reminder that winter is off to an early start, as if the multiple snow events in the past two weeks weren’t enough. Cold weather is expected to continue throughout the day on Monday as an arctic airmass is settled into much of the Northeast US and New England.  High temperatures in the upper 20’s are expected throughout the area on Monday, but it will end up feeling a whole bunch colder than that, thanks to blustery west winds. Real feel temperatures could remain in the teens throughout much of the interior, and maybe even New York City. It will feel a bit warmer close to the immediate coast.

The main story in the upcoming weather period, however, is the clipper system which is expected to deliver another shot of light snow to the area on Tuesday. A surface low associated with a mid and upper level disturbance is forecas to track just south of our area on Monday Night through Tuesday morning. Despite the progressive nature of the pattern, this could cause the development of a weak surface low south of Long Island. And such a development would all but certainly aid in the development of precipitation — likely falling in the form of snow across much of the area — early on Tuesday morning through the afternoon. You can view our latest snowfall forecast here.

NAM model showing a period of moderate snow throughout the area on Tuesday.

NAM model showing a period of moderate snow throughout the area on Tuesday.

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