John Homenuk

NWS forecasting 5-6 feet of lake effect snow in New York

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As an arctic airmass shifts throughout the United States, the Lake Effect snow “machine” will be turned on for the first time this season. And it’s coming in with a bang. The combination of extremely cold air aloft, the surge of cold air advection, and warmer air/moisture along the Great Lakes is leading to the potential for epic amounts of snow. Extremely heavy bands of snow sat south of Buffalo and near Watertown, New York this morning producing snowfall rates of 3-5″ per hour . The bands were visualized on regional radar, barely moving but fluctuating somewhat from north to south.

Meanwhile, the National Weather Service is forecasting bands to persist over the next day. Instability within the bands of heavy snow is allowing for lightning and thundersnow — a rare phenomena which actually does occur in New York City from time to time as well. But the National Weather Service in Buffalo has much bigger problems to deal with — some areas have already seen 36″ of snow accumulate from the band of heavy snow, and it isn’t expected to move a great distance until later tonight when a mid level trough swings through and changes the flow orientation. By that point, the potential exists for some areas to receive up to 70 inches of snow. That’s right — seventy inches.

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John Homenuk

Record breaking cold makes its presence felt

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This was the coldest morning in the United States since 1976. How’s that for a statistic to start your day. The average temperature in the United States fell to 19.4 F at 12z this morning, beating the 19.9 F average reading from 1976. That average temperature is simply a statistical testament to the breadth and intensity of the cold air which has surged into the United States this week behind a powerful storm system and associated cold front. Temperatures were in the single digits this morning throughout much of the Central United States, and in the teens all the way through the Ohio Valley and Northeast. A remarkable 85.3% of the United States was below freezing, and 58.2% below 20 F.

In our local area, the cold surged through Monday Night into Tuesday morning and made its presence felt immediately. Temperatures fell easily below 30 F in New York City’s Central Park. This was the first time this season that the park fell below freezing. Wind Chill values were in the teens and single digits with blustery west-northwest winds blowing from 10 to 20 miles per hour. Today will be a winter-like day in the truest sense. High temperatures will struggle past the freezing mark (although the actual “daily” high temperature will be 45 F which was registered at midnight in NYC). Wind chill values will remain in the 20’s. And the westerly winds will continue surging cold air into the area tonight, when temperatures will fall even further.

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