John Homenuk

Forecast: Cold front swings through, brings unsettled Tuesday

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NAM Model showing a sharp drop in temperatures (c) at the 850mb level in the atmosphere early Tuesday morning. 850mb temperatures of 10 C were forecast over NYC, while 850mb temperatures of -10 C were forecast over the Ohio Valley. The much cooler air to the west is on the way as a front moves through Tuesday.

Warm air, which settled into the region Sunday and Monday ahead of a cold front, is on the way out early Tuesday as the front moves through the area. Clouds and showers will meander near the area in the early morning, with some clearing eventually expected by afternoon. Yet, the main change in the weather will be much cooler temperatures and that difference will certainly be felt. Temperatures which neared 70 degrees on Monday will be cut down to the 40’s and possibly lower 50’s throughout most of the area. The clouds and showers won’t help, but the main change will be the new airmass and the return of lower humidity and cool northwest winds. The cool air will remain in place through late week, with temperatures falling into the 20’s and 30’s overnight and only topping out in the 50’s in the afternoon. The good news, however, is the lack of storms and precipitation on the radar through at least this weekend. A storm threat may be looming early next week, but we’ll keep a close eye on it. No worries for now.

Tuesday: Cloudy with showers early, then clearing with high temperatures in the afternoon topping out in the 50’s. Northwest winds, breezy and cooler.

Tuesday Night: Cool, clearing, feeling much more crisp with less humidity. Lows falling into the 20’s and 30’s throughout much of the area.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, north wind and temperatures topping out in the 50’s once again. A return to more seasonable weather — but plenty of sun to enjoy.

Looking ahead: Calm and cool weather through the weekend with no precipitation threats. Next chance for rain may be early next week with a coastal system. We’re watching it carefully.

John Homenuk

Forecast: Warm Monday before cold front moves through

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NAM Model showing high temperatures reaching the 70 degree mark in parts of New Jersey on Monday afternoon. Notice the cold front approaching from the west with a sharp temperature gradient.

Warmer weather was the story of Sunday, and plenty of people did their best to enjoy it. Temperatures warmed into the 60’s and even neared 70 in isolated locations Sunday afternoon. Much of the same will be the case on Monday, so get out early and enjoy the warm air while it’s still around! The reason we’re pushing it? A cold front is already on the way and will pass through the early on Tuesday. Although the air behind it isn’t arctic, per se, it still will have plenty of push and will bring temperatures much cooler than we’re experiencing now. In the meantime, temperatures will soar into the upper 60’s to low 70’s in many areas on Monday. Not only will it feel pleasant, but it could even feel warm out there. The front will cross early Tuesday morning, with much cooler temperatures behind it and northwest winds.

Monday: Mostly sunny with highs in the upper 60’s to lower 70’s in some areas. Warm southerly winds. Enjoy it!

Monday Night: Increasing clouds, temperatures remaining in the 60’s in many areas directly ahead of the front. Winds will get a bit stronger as the front approaches.

Tuesday: Cloudy early with temperature sin the 60’s to start, front approaches by late morning with a chance of showers. Temperatures falling rapidly behind the front into the 40’s and 50’s. Winds turn northwesterly and become a bit gusty.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny with highs in the 50’s. North winds and a new, fresh high pressure system will keep things cool despite the sun.

Looking ahead: Cool, but pleasant air looks to remain in the area through the weekend. Temperatures will moderate a bit by the weekend with highs climbing into the mid 50’s. By early next week, forecast models are hinting at a potential weak coastal storm which could bring clouds, showers, and dreary weather. But the details remain uncertain. We’ll keep an eye on it.

John Homenuk

Forecast: Nor’easter departs, Thursday stays chilly

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A strong nor’easter produced significant early season snowfall throughout much of the area on Wednesday and Wednesday Night, seen here in a screenshot from regional radar imagery on Wednesday around 8pm.

For the second year in a row, an early season nor’easter brought a significant snowfall to parts of the area — this time in early November as opposed to last years October event. What made this years event more noteworthy was the timing, just one week after Hurricane Sandy slammed into the area with significant impacts, damage, and loss of life. The snowfall blanketed the area Wednesday Night but also created significant problems with pressure on trees and power lines already weakened from last weeks hurricane. As the week moves on, clouds will hang around on Thursday with temperatures remaining chilly in the low 40’s for highs. By the weekend, however, warmer air will be on the move towards our area with pleasant weather returning. We could all use a stretch of calm and warmer weather, that’s for sure!

Nor’Easter Wrapup: The Wednesday Nor’easter was what we expected it to be, but colder and a bit more intense. The cold air which was able to work into the region allowed for most areas, away from the immediate shores, to switch over to snow for a prolonged period of time. Additionally, the strength of the forcing and lift associated with the storm allowed for heavier precipitation in bands of snow than forecast models were indicating. The storm turned out to be the second early-season significant snowfall in as many years. Some notable totals are listed below, with more likely to come.

  • Clintonville (New Haven, CT) : 13.5″
  • Freehold (Monmouth, NJ) : 13.0″
  • Manchester (Ocean, NJ) : 12.0″
  • Hamden (New Haven, CT) : 10.5″
  • Monroe (Fairfield, CT) : 9.0″
  • Ridgefield (Bergen, NJ): 7.5″
  • Scotch Plains (Union, NJ) : 7.0″

Winds and rain (as well as winds and snow) were also observed along the area shores, with Tropical Storm force gusts on both New Jersey and New York beaches. Luckily, despite high tides during the afternoon hours, the storm surge was relatively minor as was the resultant coastal flooding. Many areas did, however, lose power in the evening as the combination of heavy snow and wind began to wear on already fragile wires and trees in the area.

A reminder — if you have a storm report, send it to us! You can post it to either of our social networks (Facebook or Twitter), or simply email us at nymetroweather@gmail.com

What’s in the forecast?

Thursday: Clouds will hang around, especially early, as the nor’easter takes its time in meandering to the northeast of our area. Temperatures will struggle to climb much, into the 40’s for highs. A gusty north wind will also prevail throughout the day.

Thursday Night: Cool and partly cloudy, with temperatures falling thanks to some evaporational cooling aided by new snowpack, especially across NJ and CT. Low temperatures falling into the 20’s and 30’s.

Friday: The first hints of the impending warmup! High temperatures will reach into the low to mid 50’s for highs, with a chill still in the air. But plenty of sun will mean a pleasant day.

Looking ahead: A large ridge in the mid levels of the atmosphere and high pressure at the surface will build into the area by this weekend and into early next week. Winds will turn more southerly and warmer air is forecast to advect into the area. We could be looking at highs in the middle to upper 60’s by Sunday afternoon. Get ready for it!

 

 

John Homenuk

Second noreaster in as many weeks to strike Wednesday Night

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NAM Model showing forecast 10m winds (just above the surface) with a major storm system just off the New Jersey Coast on Wednesday evening.

A nor’easter which would usually be the weather story of the month will impact the area on Wednesday and Thursday, but it will remain overshadowed by the effects of Hurricane Sandy. Only a little over a week after Hurricane Sandy wreaked havoc on the area, another major nor’easter is poised to move just off the coast of New Jersey. Another strong atmospheric disturbance moving off the coast of the Southeast US will phase with a disturbance dropping south from the Mississippi Valley, and strengthen rapidly offshore. As it moves north periods of moderate to heavy rain are likely to spread northwest from the Atlantic Ocean towards New Jersey, New York, and Connecticut. In addition, cold air in place could allow for the development of frozen precipitation especially just inland away from the shores and in the higher elevations if NJ and NY. Wind will also be a big concern near the shores — and this will depend greatly on the exact track of the system. Check out the details below…

How is this storm system developing? A piece of energy over the Southeast United States will swing eastward towards the coast, while another disturbance drops south out of Canada into the Tennessee Valley and phases with it. Yes, we’ve heard these terms before. The phase will allow the storm to strengthen off the coast once again. This time, the blocking to the north won’t be strong enough to force the storm well inland (it’s also not a tropical system hybrid) but the storm system is still forecast to be plenty strong as it develops off the coast and then gets tugged near the shore. In fact, some of the recent forecast models are beginning to show the storm turning northwest and making a very close approach near the coast of NJ and Long Island.

What are the main threats with the system? This nor’easter will provide a myriad of threats.  The system will be entering a very cool airmass which is in place across the region (check out how chilly it is tonight), and the high pressure will shift to the north and do its best to keep the cold air in place. This, with the storm system strengthening offshore, creates a threat for wind and rain along the coast, some storm surge, and the possibility of frozen precipitation for a period of time especially inland.

  • Rain: The system looks to  provide moderate amounts of rainfall throughout the entire area, with the potential for some heavier rain along the coasts and on Long Island. The one caveat to this is that the storm’s best period for strengthening and heavy precipitation will be south of the area, so after an initial thump of heavy rain as the storm comes in, there may be a lightening of precipitation as the “cold conveyor belt” weakens over the area.
  • Wind: This is not something you want to hear, we know. But the storm system looks to have a significant amount of wind with it, especially aloft. The difference between this storm and Hurricane Sandy other than the size and intensity is that the atmosphere will be less favorably set up for mixing these winds down to the surface. However, there may still be gusts over 60 miles per hour especially near the coasts. These type of wind gusts are still dangerous and could cause some downed trees and power lines, especially ones weakened by Sandy. The wind should be less of a threat over inland areas due to the stable northerly wind component, but still capable of gusts near 40-50mph. This creates a significant hazard especially for those areas which are still recovering from Hurricane Sandy.
  • Storm Surge/Flooding: This storm will occur, luckily, at a period between full moons and astro-low tides, whereas  Sandy occurred during a full moon at high tide. However, such a strong storm system as this one can still often produce a storm surge…yet it should be at least somewhat mitigated by the fact that the system is expected to remain offshore. That being said, prepare for the possibility of some coastal flooding once again — to repeat…we are not expecting widespread storm surge/coastal flooding..but it remains a distinct possibility that it will occur, to a lesser extent than it did during  Sandy.
  • Snow: Yes, snow is actually a threat with this system. Recent model runs have cooled the thermal profiles and support a period of snow even in areas such as NYC and Central NJ stretching as far west as Philadelphia. The prolonged snow and light accumulations look most likely over interior NJ, Eastern PA, and Southeast NY/CT. But a slushy inch of snow cannot be ruled out even in the immediate suburbs of Northeast NJ and Central NJ as well.

Timing: Rain is expected to begin across the New Jersey shore as early as Wednesday afternoon and will spread north towards Long Island and NYC/NJ. The rain will quickly become moderate to heavy with a noticeable increase of wind as well near the coast. As the intensity increases, snow and sleet will mix in with precipitation across the suburbs and inland. The snow and sleet could continue for several hours across the suburbs especially farther inland. In the city and along the coast, after a period of snow it is expected that the snow will change back to a light rain or sleet for a period of time late Wednesday Night. Overnight, the precipitation is expected to remain light to moderate with rain and wind near the coast, sleet and rain mix just inland, and mostly snow across the interior. By Thursday Morning, precipitation is expected to lighten as the storm pulls away. Total snowfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches at the most are expected with lesser amounts in most areas. Wind gusts of 40 to 50 miles per hour are possible near the coast with some higher gusts to near 60 miles per hour in isolated areas.

What are some of the forecast uncertainties? The exact track of the storm will have huge impacts on the sensible weather in the area. A closer to the coast track will mean warmer air working in (limiting the snow to the far inland areas) and much stronger winds near the coast. A farther offshore track will mean less wind, but more available colder air and more frozen precipitation would be likely even into the immediate suburbs of NYC, NJ, CT, and Philadelphia. Stay with us over the next 12 hours as the storm rapidly approaches and we begin to get a better idea as to the exact track of the system.