Dreary Tuesday ahead of approaching cold front

NAM Model's simulated radar, showing precipitation lingering over the area through Tuesday Night. Clearing is expected behind a cold front on Wednesday.

NAM Model’s simulated radar, showing precipitation lingering over the area through Tuesday Night. Clearing is expected behind a cold front on Wednesday.

Less than ideal weather has overtaken the area this afternoon, and unfortunately looks to stick around through the evening and into the overnight period of  Tuesday Night into Wednesday morning. As a cold front passes the area, clearing is expected by Wednesday with the return of cooler temperatures. Until then, southerly winds will promote temperatures around 5 degrees above average with plenty of clouds and showers int he area. Precipitation started as snow/wintry mix across the far interior and northwest suburbs but has since transitioned to a cold rain — which is expected to continue through the evening.

The mid-week forecast looks to feature more sun, but colder temperatures and a stiff breeze on Wednesday. High temperatures will barely reach into the lower 30’s on Wednesday and Thursday in the city, and should stay below freezing inland. The next system of interest doesn’t come onto the forecasting radar until Friday, and it looks to feature some frozen precipitation but a transition to mostly rain. We’ll keep you updated. For now, here’s the short term forecast:

Tuesday Night: Showers likely, with a low temperature near 30. South winds turning west and increasing to 10 to 15 miles per hour. Clearing by the late-overnight.

Wednesday: Clearing and sunny. High near 33. Cold, with blustery west/northwest winds near 20 miles per hour.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear with lows in the teens to 20’s. Cold. Still blustery, with west winds 10 to 15 miles per hour.

Stay tuned to our Facebook and Twitter accounts for up to the minute updates on the area’s weather!

Another light snowfall possible as midweek storm slides by

NAM model showing snow overspreading the region from Wednesday Night into Thursday morning, as a storm passes quickly offshore to our south and east. Eventual snowfall totals will depend on how far north the storm system tracks.

NAM model showing snow overspreading the region from Wednesday Night into Thursday morning, as a storm passes quickly offshore to our south and east. Eventual snowfall totals will depend on how far north the storm system tracks.

12:30pm Update: Our Storm Total Snowfall Forecast map is now available. See the map by clicking to enlarge it on the widget to the right, or click this link to view the map in full size.

An active weather pattern continues this week, in the wake of a significant (historic, in some places) snowstorm last weekend. The fast pattern brought us freezing rain and showers on Monday, and after a break on Tuesday attention will turn to a potential light to moderate snowfall event this coming Wednesday Night into Thursday. Forecast models continue to struggle with the exact track of the system, including the positioning and intensity of precipitation, owing to the uncertainties in regards to the exact track of the surface low pressure. Par for the course at this point. However, the individual nuances in a fast pattern like this one can have an amplified effect on the sensible weather. So, we end up with a handful of forecast models showing a moderate snowfall, and a handful showing nothing. After a trend farther south with the low pressure center, forecast models today have ticked a little farther north with the storm system — bringing back moderate precipitation totals into the forecast.

The issue then becomes whether or not the atmosphere will support snow in the entire area, which becomes a little shaky especially over Southern New Jersey where this is a good bit of warm air in the boundary layer to start. So some of the precipitation could fall as rain initially before the column cools and supports snow. This creates the potential for a relatively  swath of snow potential from Southern to Central NJ — and potentially as far north as New York City and Long Island if the storm tracks along the northern envelope of guidance. Our new snowfall forecast reflects this, with a general corridor of 1 to 3 inch potential. The storm is expected to begin in the evening hours on Wednesday, but will be a relatively quick mover with snow ending by early Thursday morning. Stay tuned for further updates including potential watches/warnings and advisories as well as snowfall forecast updates. Our official text forecast is below:

Tonight: Partly cloudy and blustery, with a west wind around 10 to 15 miles per hour gusting as high as 25 miles per hour. Cooler in the suburbs — definitely bring a heavy coat if you’re headed out.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy early, but becoming mostly cloudy late with a 30% chance of snow after 2pm. High near 40, with a northwest wind around 5 miles per hour.

Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy with a 60% chance of snow. Low near 30, with a continued light northwest wind. New snowfall accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

Icy interior to begin Monday, another potential snowstorm midweek

GFS Model showing a snowstorm impacting our area Wednesday Night into Thursday morning. Forecast models continue to struggle with handling the disturbance, and the eventual track will determine the impacts the storm may have on our area.

GFS Model showing a snowstorm impacting our area Wednesday Night into Thursday morning. Forecast models continue to struggle with handling the disturbance, and the eventual track will determine the impacts the storm may have on our area.

Monday Morning Brief: A Freezing Rain Advisory is in effect for parts of interior New Jersey, Southeast New York, and Connecticut through Monday. A period of light frozen precipitation is expected overnight Sunday into Monday. Travel may be slick/slippery and icy in these areas during the early morning rush hour on Monday — so be careful! The advisory does not include the NYC Metro.

An active weather week is ahead of us, and it begins with the potential for some freezing rain/wintry mix in the interior on Monday morning. This short lived wintry precipitation will be followed by a period of light rain during Monday afternoon, and clearing thereafter with a return to normal temperatures. Lows in the 20’s and 30’s are expected again by Monday Night into Tuesday, with high temperatures struggling into the 40’s on Tuesday. Despite the sun, blustery west winds will keep Tuesday feeling wintry with whatever snowpack remains (possibly a good bit especially in areas that received prolific snow amounts a few days ago).

Focus will then turn to another potential winter weather event, which forecast models are hinting could impact the area beginning Wednesday Night and continuing into Thursday. Although this event looks much more “moderate” than the Blizzard just a few days ago, some guidance still indicates the potential for several inches of snowfall in some areas should the storm track far enough north to impact the area. Others, however, keep the storm suppressed far to the south with minimal impacts. We’ll be keeping a close eye on it — and should have more confidence in the eventual track of the storm system (and resulting impacts) by Monday evening. Stay tuned here, and to our Facebook and Twitter accounts for updates throughout the day and night!

Blizzard Warnings issued as significant snowstorm takes aim at the area

NAM model showing prolific snowfall totals throughout the area by Saturday morning. White values represent 12 inches or more, red values represent 16 inches or more, with darker red indicating a forecast for over 24 inches of snow.

NAM model showing prolific snowfall totals throughout the area by Saturday morning. White values represent 12 inches or more, red values represent 16 inches or more, with darker red indicating a forecast for over 24 inches of snow.

A powerful nor’easter, developing off the coast of the Mid Atlantic states Friday into Saturday, will impact the area with heavy wintry precipitation and strong winds, with the potential for widespread prolific snowfall amounts. Forecast models have come into agreement on the track and intensity of the surface low, with the storm tracking off the coast of the Mid-Atlantic states and rapidly deepening before moving towards the 40/70 Benchmark by Saturday. As two pieces of atmospheric energy “phase” over the Mid-Atlantic states, significant precipitation will move up the East Coast…falling as a rain/snow mix and eventually very heavy snow throughout the area. Although it remains uncertain where the highest amounts will fall exactly, the potential for a foot or more of snow exists throughout a large portion of the forecast area. We break down the storm system below.

Why is the storm system developing? Two pieces of mid-atmospheric energy are poised to “phase” over the Mid-Atlantic states on Thursday into Friday. The moisture-laden piece of energy from the southern jet stream is heading northward from Southeast states, while the energy from the Northern jet stream will dive southeast through the Ohio Valley. The exact timing and interaction between the two features is key, and forecast models have trended towards a more robust phase and the potential for a very strong storm system developing as a result. In addition, a strong high pressure system to the north will supply additional cold air once the storm system begins to deepen off the coast.

What kind of impacts can we expect? Heavy snow and strong winds will be the main threats, but coastal flooding and ice/sleet may also become issues during the storm system. Impacts could begin as early as Friday morning with rain/snow falling throughout the day. Significant travel impacts are anticipated throughout the area including road travel and airports.

What kind of snow accumulations are expected? We are expecting 8-14 inches of snow throughout the majority of the NYC Area and Northeast New Jersey. Farther to the south, a gradual decrease in amounts is expected once one nears Trenton and Central NJ. Farther north and east, more prolific snowfall totals are likely..especially over Long Island and Connecticut, where upwards of 18 inches of snow is becoming more likely with time. On the top right of the page, a widget displays our latest snowfall map which will be updated Thursday Evening and again Friday morning.

When will the storm start, end, and when will the worst be? Snow and rain could begin as early as Friday Morning throughout the area and will continue through Friday afternoon. By mid afternoon on Friday, precipitation is expected to become heavier and steadier. Southern and Central NJ will see a transition to rain/sleet by this time. However, areas farther north over Northern NJ, NYC, CT and Long Island will begin to see very heavy snowfall. After sunset on Friday, and continuing through the overnight, very heavy snow is expected throughout all of Northern NJ, New York City, Long Island, and Connecticut. The snow will continue, heavy, through Saturday.

Strong winds, very heavy snow with significant blowing and drifting is possible. Significant delays or closures at airports are a certainty. Roads will become difficult to travel and we recommend that you stay off them under all circumstances. Visibilities could drop to near zero at times during the heaviest snow.

Stay tuned here, and on our social media network accounts for up to the minute details on the system as it approaches.