Visible satellite imagery from the evening of May 9 2013. You can visualize the circulation of the upper level low, located just east of Long Island.

PM Update: Warm, stormy end to the work week

Unsettled weather has gripped the area over the past day or so — after a prolonged period of pleasant and dry weather. Over 2 inches of rain fell in New York City on Wednesday as an upper level low moved near the area and moisture streamed into the area. Thursday featured some rain as well, but it was more spotty and scattered as opposed to the synoptic type heavy rain which fell along the warm front Wednesday. The forecast will remain unsettled through the end of the work week and into the weekend, but a warming trend will also be noticeable. This will be especially true on Friday, ahead of a cold front, when temperatures could warm into the upper 70’s to lower 80’s throughout much of New Jersey towards New York City.

The catch, however, will be the disturbance approaching aloft — and the cold front approaching at the surface. Showers and thunderstorms will become scattered by Friday afternoon over Pennsylvania and Western New Jersey and could move into the area overnight Friday into Saturday. Although Saturday will likely be warm as well, thunderstorms and periods of rain appear likely with the frontal boundary near the area. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the area in a 5% risk of severe thunderstorms (a tier below the 15% that would trigger a “Slight Risk). Clearing is expected by Sunday with colder temperatures moving into the area behind the front.

Stay tuned over the next day or so for updates on the approaching disturbance and cold front, as well as any potential thunderstorms and associated watches and warnings.

For a day-by-day breakdown of the forecast, check out our Forecast Brief. If you’re looking to get more details and technical reasoning, check out our Technical Forecast Discussion. Have a great night!