Pleasant weather, which had settled into the area over the last few days, will give way to more clouds this evening. A mix of sun and clouds had been the story today, but it had remained mostly dry throughout the area despite some widely scattered showers. However, a disturbance to our north — dropping south and east along the periphery of a mid level heat ridge over the Central US — has sparked an area of showers and thunderstorms over New York State and Northwest Pennsylvania.
Forecast models are at odds with the overnight storms and their impact on the forecast area. A low pressure system is forecast to develop along a weak frontal zone over New England by later this evening, which adds confidence to the continued southeastward motion of the showers and storms over New York State. That being said, some weakening is likely as instability is much less over New Jersey and Southeast New York than it is currently over New York State. This lends confidence to the fact that showers will impact the area later tonight, but strong/severe thunderstorms look unlikely.
The Storm Prediction Center maintains a 5% risk for severe weather (less than a Slight Risk), for the potential of an isolated strong wind gust in any thunderstorm. Bring an umbrella if you’re headed out tonight, especially after the evening commute.
Tonight: Partly to mostly cloudy, becoming mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Chance of precipitation 70%. Low temperatures in the upper 60’s to lower 70’s. The evening commute should remain dry, but overnight looks wet.
Tuesday: Scattered showers early, becoming partly cloudy with a high in the middle 80’s. West winds around 5 miles per hour. The wet weather early on will give way to rapidly warming conditions. Depending on the amount of sun, some areas could approach 90 degrees.