John Homenuk

Pleasant weather, wet weekend, foliage update

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The weather over the past several days has been astonishingly pleasant – with highs in the low to mid 70’s, abundant sunshine and low humidity. A Canadian high pressure, which settled into the area earlier this week, has modified a bit — but continues to provide benign weather and comfortable air. The low humidity and near-average highs for this time of the year are comfortable by nature. The deep blue skies will continue for another day on Thursday, with highs expected to reach into the middle to upper 70’s. A few clouds could sneak in on Friday, but the idea of calm weather and comfortable air will continue. Thursday Night will still be a bit brisk, with lows falling into the 50’s.

 

Surface analysis and observations from the morning of September 19th, 2013 in the Northeast US, showing a high pressure in control but beginning to weaken.

Surface analysis and observations from the morning of September 19th, 2013 in the Northeast US, showing a high pressure in control but beginning to weaken.

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John Homenuk

Wednesday to bring another gem, another launch

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The weather on Tuesday was amazingly comfortable, with plenty of sun and a light breeze. When we said earlier this week that the weather would be incredible this entire work week, we weren’t kidding. Another gem of a day is expected on Wednesday, as highs will moderate only a few degrees towards the lower to mid 70’s. A Canadian high pressure system will remain in control through Friday, and highs will rise a little bit each day as the airmass modifies. But clear skies and light winds are expected once again on Wednesday — making the midweek day especially pleasant. A chilly start can be expected once again for the morning commute on Wednesday, as lows will dip into the upper 30’s and 40’s in the suburbs for the second straight morning.

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John Homenuk

North and West of 287: Not just urban legend?

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“The best snowfall accumulations should be relegated to areas North and West of 287 in New Jersey.”

For anyone who has been around meteorology, public forecasting, or snowfall forecasting in the media and television over the last 10 or more years, this has been a phrase which will ring many bells and bring back many memories. The media, news outlets, and other forecasters have used the saying of sorts as a way to discern where the higher snowfall totals may occur over the hills and elevated areas of interior Northwest New Jersey. Whether it be via cooler temperatures at the surface, aloft, or a longer duration event in general, it seems that areas North and West of 287 often benefit from their location and elevation in winter storms.

With winter only a few short months away, and the first murmurs beginning in our offices about winter forecasting and seasonal forecasting, the saying brought up a few questions — and the potential for some research. Is “North and West of 287” a generalized phrase, or can it actually be used to differentiate between parts of New Jersey which receive more snow than others? We took a look into the location of I-287 in New Jersey compared to storm specific, seasonal, and long term snowfall averages and found some very surprising results.

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John Homenuk

Forecast: Pleasant work week ahead

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Although it may still technically be summer on the calendar, meteorological seasons seem to be the better indicator of sensible weather so far this week — especially this morning as low temperatures fell into the 40’s and 50’s with some upper 30’s in the northwest suburbs. The cool temperatures are occurring as a result of a cold front, which passed through last night and ushered in a cool (but progressive) airmass from Canada. These airmasses typically become increasingly common as the autumn goes on, but don’t stick around for too long early in the season. This year will be no different, as the week will feature pleasant weather but moderating temperatures.
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