Three weeks from perihelion, ISON still puzzling

With perihelion fast approaching, Comet ISON is brightening steadily as it makes its first and only trip towards the inner solar system. The comet, once dubbed “Comet of the Century” by amateur astronomers after it was discovered at an alarmingly bright magnitude over a year ago, has fallen short of expectations since then. But studies by various scientists have only left confusing results and differing opinions. Some say the comet is on its way to disintegration, others are expecting an outburst of brightness within the next two weeks. ISON, however, will do what it wants — as it continues its trek towards the sun, and then outward into space once again.

Comet ISON, imaged November 3rd 2013 by Rolando Ligustri.

Comet ISON, imaged November 3rd 2013 by Rolando Ligustri.

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Cold start, slowly warming this week

The growing season ended early Monday morning throughout much of the interior, down to the immediate suburbs of Western Union and Essex counties. The winds kept radiational cooling from performing too well, however, and much of the 5 Boros of NYC remained above freezing — so the growing season will technically continue there until the next freeze. Although it may seem very brisk today (temperatures will struggle into the 50’s Monday afternoon), the cold air will be rather brief. Temperatures are expected to slowly warm this week, with highs reaching into the 60’s by later this week ahead of a cold front. The roller coaster of temperatures has been a trend of late, with a similar event occurring last week ahead of a front and storm system.

HRRR model showing dew points in the teens throughout the area on Monday afternoon.

HRRR model showing dew points in the teens throughout the area on Monday afternoon. Courtesy Weatherbell.

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Forecast: Warmer, strong winds possible Friday

For the first Halloween in three years, the weather hazards in our area will be kept to a minimum. After a damaging snowstorm in 2011, and the recovery from Hurricane Sandy in 2012, today’s weather will feel like a major relief. Additionally, it will feel like the top of a week-long roller coaster of temperatures. Highs today will top out in the upper 60s to lower 70s, but the humidity will make it feel muggier than it has been in several weeks. A few showers are possible across the north and western suburbs later this evening.

Water Vapor Satellite imagery from the morning of 10/31/13, showing moisture streaming towards the area ahead of a storm over the Central US.

Water Vapor Satellite imagery from the morning of 10/31/13, showing moisture streaming towards the area ahead of a storm over the Central US.

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PM Update: Pleasant, warming trend begins midweek

The cooler than normal weather which has dominated the pattern over the past week or so will take a brief respite over the next few days, as a storm system surges towards the Central US and brings a warm front towards the region. In the meantime, pleasant weather is expected tonight — with temperatures falling from the middle 50s into the 40s overnight.

NAM model showing high temperatures in the middle to upper 60's throughout the area on Halloween (Thursday).

NAM model showing high temperatures in the middle to upper 60’s throughout the area on Halloween (Thursday).

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