Nice fall weather today and tomorrow, scattered showers to end the week, potential pattern change to colder weather next week

On this Columbus Day afternoon, our area is seeing lovely fall weather with temperatures in the mid 60s, and a few mid and upper level stratus and cirrus clouds off to the west.

High pressure over the area is giving us nice weather. The Low pressure in the Plains will affect us later this week.

High pressure over the area is giving us nice weather. The Low pressure in the Plains will affect us later this week.

This is in large part thanks to the high pressure system that has settled in over our area, as seen in the above image. Sunny skies with thin clouds off to the west will continue for the rest of this afternoon. The high pressure is promoting some easterly flow off of the Atlantic, helping to usher in cool air off of the ocean — which is why temperatures will struggle to get out of the mid 60s.

The thin clouds are caused by a weak frontal system off to the west associated with the thin band of clouds in Upstate NY and Central PA. This front will dissipate as it heads east, but not before bringing in a few additional mid-level clouds for tonight. This will keep temperatures from really plummeting — lows should be in the upper 40s in cool spots, with low to mid 50s elsewhere.

Tomorrow looks to be a bit warmer thanks to the high pressure system in the Great Lakes building in. Winds will have a bit more of a westerly component, helping to create some downsloping, yielding temperatures around 70 degrees.

The forecast becomes a bit tricky starting on Wednesday, as the low pressure system in the Plains approaches the area and an inverted trough develops offshore. Clouds will be on the increase for Wednesday, and the inverted trough may help to spark a few showers for Wednesday well ahead of the front. Highs should approach the lower 70s. The front itself should cross the area for Wednesday night and Thursday morning, perhaps giving the area a a brief bout of steady rain — though the heaviest rain should be to the north and west of our area.

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Update: Cloudy and drizzly now, heavier rains tonight

After a brief bout of rain this morning, most of the area is currently in a dry-slot. Lots of dry air has filtered into the region thanks to a high pressure system to the north. And considering the storm is still well to the south of the area, there is not enough lift in the atmosphere at our latitude to consistently supply rain. This is why our forecast called for the heaviest rain to be tonight and tomorrow morning, rather than today.

 

The water vapor imagery shows dry air filtering into our storm system, but lots of cold cloud tops to the east that will eventually head our way.

The water vapor imagery shows dry air filtering into our storm system, but lots of cold cloud tops to the east that will eventually head our way.

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Nor’easter to bring rain, wind over next several days

Sunny, warm and pleasant conditions will become a distant memory during the second half of this work week. A coastal system, or Nor’easter, will develop off the Mid-Atlantic coast today and shift slowly northward. The developing system is actually the weak remnants of Tropical Storm Karen, now a mid level disturbance shifting up the Eastern Seaboard. Although not featuring a very strong center of low pressure, the system will push north with a tight gradient developing between the low pressure area and the high pressure holding firm to the north. The result will be east/northeasterly winds (an onshore flow) for a prolonged period of time, as well as gusty winds and periods of rain.

Gale Warnings and Coastal Flood Statements have been issued by the National Weather Service in advance of the system.

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Comet ISON, expected to thrill, may be dying

What was once heralded as the potential “Comet of the Century” may be an equally large disappointment. Although previous reports of the comets demise may have been significantly exaggerated, new information reveals that not only is the comet underwhelming as it races towards the sun — it is also smaller than expected, and tracking in a very dangerous area for comets that wish to survive.

The comet recently passed near Mars, where NASA utilized several imaging tools to view it. It was this imaging, coupled with thousands of others which have been taken over the last several months, which revealed that Comet ISON may not be what it was initially perceived to be. The comet, which was discovered over a year ago and began brightening ahead of schedule, would have eventually reached a magnitude of -17 if it had continued to brighten at such a rate. But, over the last 4-6 months, the comets brightening has “stalled”. And this is bad, bad news for those who are hoping for a bright comet this autumn and winter.

Comet ISON as observed by the Hubble Space Telescop, near Jupiter, in April of 2013.

Comet ISON as observed by the Hubble Space Telescope near Jupiter, in April of 2013.

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