Labor Day weekend forecast takes a pleasant turn

A forecast which initially looked somewhat dreary, with clouds and thunderstorms widespread, has taken a positive turn on the upcoming Labor Day Weekend. Forecast models have converged on a solution which will bring multiple perturbations in the mid level flow to the north and west of our area, instead of over our area, from Friday through Sunday. And while the exact solution remains uncertain, the idea that the disturbances will pass north and west of us is gaining traction — and is a very positive sign for those of us looking to spend some time outside this weekend.

What we will first deal with is the passage of a frontal zone, bringing scattered showers and storms to the area early in the morning hours on Thursday. These will clear fairly quickly, moving seaward by Thursday morning’s commute. Westerly winds will have built back in by that time, and decreasing low level temperatures will keep surface temperatures nearer to 80 degrees when compared to the 90 degree temperatures on Wednesday. The air will feel less thick and humid as well.

NAM model showing highs barely reaching 80 degrees on Thursday afternoon.

NAM model showing highs barely reaching 80 degrees on Thursday afternoon.

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PM Update: Warmup midweek, unsettled weather ahead

Monday was the first in a set of what will likely be three summery days — with high temperatures in the 80’s and a warm sun. Autumn-like weather has taken its grip on the areas weather over the last week or so with pleasant days and cool nights. But the below normal temperatures will take a hiatus, however brief it may be, during the next few days. A building ridge in the mid levels of the atmosphere will aid in the development of a southwesterly flow, which will yield increasing mid level temperatures and warmer surface temperatures as well.

High temperatures on Tuesday will reach into the upper 80’s, feeling a bit warmer than Monday. Drier winds, as opposed to the onshore flow which has kept things cooler for the past few days, will make the air feel even pleasantly warm. Humidity will begin to increase as well, but won’t become noticeably uncomfortable until Wednesday. This will signal the approach of a frontal boundary later Wednesday, which will eventually bring an end to the warmer and more summery weather.

NAM model forecasting temperatures in the 90's on Wednesday afternoon with approaching thunderstorms. (Temperatures top left, precipitation top right).

NAM model forecasting temperatures in the 90’s on Wednesday afternoon with approaching thunderstorms. (Temperatures top left, precipitation top right).

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Muggier, warmer weather returns this week

Although the weekend may be coming to a close, too quickly as it always seems to be, there is some good news in the forecast for the upcoming week. A building ridge (we haven’t heard that statement in a while) will bring increasing mid level temperatures and rising heights aloft. The presence of high latitude blocking and a persistent ridge out west have, for the most part this summer, inhibited the development of any ridging in the Northeast United States. But, as is the case with all patterns, there are exceptions — and eventually changes. For this week, we’ll see the return of a southwesterly winds and warmer temperatures as well as increasing humidity.

High temperatures by the middle of the week could flirt with 90 degrees in the urban corridor of Philadelphia to New York City. This will be especially true on Wednesday, when mid level temperatures will peak around 18 C, typically supportive of temperatures over 90 degrees. The warm weather won’t last forever, but while it’s around during the early to middle part of this coming week it will certainly feel more like summer. Or more like August should feel, compared to the Autumn-like air we’ve become accustomed to over the last week or two.

NAM model showing temperatures in the upper 80's on Tuesday afternoon.

NAM model showing temperatures in the upper 80’s on Tuesday afternoon.

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Announcing premium forecasts, weather models

Today, we are extremely excited to announce the overhaul and re-structuring of our premium and subscription forecast packages. For the past few years, New York Metro Weather has begun to offer subscription forecast packages to clients and subscribers who are looking for more detailed information or location-specific forecasts. Essentially, subscribing will allow you to have personalized forecast for your home or office, with 24/7 access to our staff of meteorologists. The features and benefits of the relationship which you develop with New York Metro Weather will bring you unprecedented accuracy in forecasting, and peace of mind regarding weather hazards and information. Additionally, the pricing on these packages will fall well under the market average for these services. For information regarding our subscription packages and availability, Click Here.

Upon subscribing, you will immediately receive an email from one of our meteorologists — and we will start talking with you to tailor our forecasts specifically to you and your location.

Despite offering these subscription packages, the core of what New York Metro Weather offers will remain free — as it always has. Our articles, Forecast Brief and Discussion will remain available to everybody — and our social media accounts will continue to work exactly as they have before. But we’re taking it further. On September 1st, 2014 we will be rolling out the Beta Version of our Forecast Model hub, a central place to access our own in-house weather models. This page will be completely free. We will never charge you for any of our forecast model images or information.

Subscribe Now | Check out samples of our new model page | Buy an awesome T-Shirt 

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