John Homenuk

Cooler, but still pleasant weather this weekend

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In response to warm southerly winds and a mid level atmospheric ridge, temperatures on Wednesday rose into the 70’s throughout much of the area. Temperatures on Thursday will behave similarly, rising again into the mid 70’s in many areas. Southerly winds will continue and, for the time being, the mid level atmospheric ridge will remain over head. But the pattern — in case you haven’t noticed, with below freezing temperatures on Monday — is transient, and the warm temperatures will be scoured out by a cold front by Friday.

Not all is lost, however. After a few showers late Thursday into Friday morning, cooler air in the mid levels of the atmosphere will move overhead, and the wind direction at the surface will turn more west/northwesterly. But pleasant conditions are expected to continue. High temperatures will be notably cooler on Friday than they were on Thursday, but the weather will remain pleasant — a trade off that most of us will surely take, this time of year.

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John Homenuk

Classic ‘Indian Summer’ will warm up the area midweek

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The bitter cold temperatures which caused a hard freeze in much of the area on Monday morning are a distant memory, for now. Temperatures during the middle of the week will warm up into the mid 70’s, as a mid and upper level atmospheric ridge builds throughout the area. Southerly winds at the surface will draw warmer, slightly more humid air into the area by Wednesday and Thursday. While temperatures will obviously be a bit cooler near the coast, the air will feel downright balmy compared to what we experienced earlier this week.

The warmth will be driven, as mentioned, by a building mid level atmospheric ridge. Southerly winds, even this time of year, can help to advect in very warm air. This week will be no different. Occurring after the first hard frost freeze, the warmer temperature and southerly winds are a classic ‘Indian Summer’, which by definition occurs “as the thunderstorms and severe weather of the summer give way to a tamer, calmer weather period before the turbulence of the winter commences,” per the National Weather Service.

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John Homenuk

Annual Orionid meteor shower peaks late tonight

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Favorable viewing conditions are anticipated for the peak of the Orionid meteor shower tonight, as Earth passes through the debris field of Haley’s comet. The annual meteor shower occurs with varying intensities, but astronomers struggle to differentiate between individual “Forecasts” for the amount of meteors streaking through the night sky. Instead, the shower remains relatively variable and dependent on the density of debris that the Earth passes through.

Regardless, the weather tonight is expected to cooperate. A frontal boundary will be situated well to our north, and our area will remain generally under high pressure. While there could be a few clouds moving in and out of the area, there certainly won’t be any overcast conditions — or low clouds, like the ones that obscured our view of the lunar eclipse last month.

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John Homenuk

In Autumn, many eyes drawn to the North Pacific

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With Autumn very obviously and officially underway (have you been outside the past few days?), the questions have begun to surface regarding the upcoming winter — and if the Autumn pattern will foreshadow it. Unfortunately, it isn’t quite as simple as “A cold October means a cold winter” or ” A warm November means a warm winter”. If that were the case, we’d have long range forecasting figured out by now, and there would be much less urgency to winter outlooks. The best we have for now are correlations, analogs, and pattern drivers. When used together, the summation of these factors provide a higher probability of success in medium to long range forecasting. But these methods are far from perfect. The evolution of these different atmospheric oscillations during the autumn season can often give us substantial clues into the ensuing winter’s dominant index modalities.

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