John Homenuk

Cool Friday will lead us into a pleasant weekend

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Yes, it was cold out this morning. Temperatures fell into the upper 20’s in the interior early on Friday morning, and the middle to upper 30’s nearer to the city. Urban heat allowed for many areas to stay closer to 40. Regardless of the exact numbers, it was very chilly and a few mangled snowflakes even made it down to the surface as a very weak disturbance kicked off some showers and snow showers this morning. This weather resembles March more than late April, for sure.

The good news is that over the next 24 hours, things will improve. Despite a continued colder than normal pattern, a mid level disturbance will slide south of the region on Saturday. A modifying airmass will allow for temperatures to warm up in the mid levels and at the surface by Saturday afternoon. Think of it this way: An airmass that surges into our area from Canada, this time of year, can’t maintain it’s severity if it’s cut off from the source of the cold air. This allows the airmass to modify to its surroundings, hence why cold air like what we saw this morning doesn’t typically last more than a day or two.

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John Homenuk

PM Update: Freeze Warning in effect for many areas tonight

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On the heels of a strong cold front which moved through the area yesterday, cold air both aloft and at the surface has settled into the region today. This air is unseasonably cold, in fact, with mid level temperatures several degrees below normal and surface temperatures only topping out in the lower 50’s this afternoon in many locations throughout the area. The cold air aloft even aided in some snow and graupel showers throughout the area during the afternoon today.

Nevertheless, tonight will be a cold one. Forecast models are in good agreement on mid level temperatures falling to even colder levels tonight than they did today. At the 850mb level, for example, models suggest temperatures will fall to near -10 C later tonight. That is a value much more common in the middle of winter, and not often seen in late April.

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John Homenuk

Chile’s Calbuco erupts for first time in 40+ years

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Yes, we are a New York Metro Area forecasting website. But there are times when it becomes prudent to venture out a bit — especially when a worldwide event occurs such as this one.

Chile’s “Calbuco” volcano erupted yesterday, for the first time in more than 40 years. The first eruption, Wednesday afternoon, spewed massive amounts of ash into the sky a few hours prior to sunset. A second eruption overnight was stronger than the first — with massive amounts of ash and lava continuing to erupt.

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John Homenuk

High latitude blocking puts Spring on hold

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It’s almost too fitting. For much of the winter, meteorologists and hobbyists alike spend countless hours attempting to forecast and predict the likelihood of high latitude blocking development. This year, stratospheric warming events were expected to kick off changes that would eventually lead to the development of said high latitude blocking, and change our pattern to a cold and snowy one. While the pattern turned cold and snowy for sure, the high latitude blocking never came to fruition. In fact, the NAO stayed positive for much of the winters duration.

Well, it’s finally here. Just in time for Spring.

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