Doug Simonian

Record-breaking cold tonight, followed by an active weather pattern

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The theme for this month so far has been cold, cold, and more cold. And that is expected to continue. Most locations in the NYC area are running around ten degrees below average, which currently places us in the top-5 for coldest Februaries on record.

Tonight, another Arctic blast is on its way, as a large chunk of the Polar Vortex will dive into the US. This is the most impressive Arctic blast yet. Had last year’s Polar Vortex phenomenon not been so strong, this Arctic outbreak would be getting a lot more attention. The Arctic cold will be combined with NW winds at around 20mph, gusting to 30mph, leading to dangerously cold Wind Chills.

The big question among us meteorologists is whether NYC will hit 0 or below tonight. The airmass looks cold enough, as 850mb temperatures (about 4500 feet in elevation) look to drop to -27C at 1:00am, and 925mb temperatures (about 2200 feet in elevation) look to fall to -26C at 7:00am.

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John Homenuk

Here’s why a cold, wintry pattern will continue

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We know, it’s been relentless. But we warned you of this. The past two to four weeks have featured a near constant parade of storm systems with winter weather, as well as bitter cold both during the systems and surrounding them. The pattern has been “locked and loaded” as meteorologists like to say. The atmosphere has settled into a routine, and it’s one that continues to dislodge arctic air farther south than usual while maintaining an active jet stream of energy. This has resulted in countless chances for snow with a train of storm systems moving across the country into very cold air. In terms of snowfall, New England has benefited the most — many weather stations are running toward all time snowfall records.

A breakdown and overview of the hemispheric setup offers us some clues as to why this pattern has become so relentless, and why it’s likely to continue for at least another 7 to 10 days before any hint of moderation. As meteorologists, long term forecasting is rarely as straightforward as “colder than normal with the potential for snow”. But the next 7-10 days offer just that.

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John Homenuk

Another winter weather event possible Tuesday

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In what now seems to be a never-ending parade of winter weather, forecast models have come into agreement on the potential for another winter weather event on this coming Tuesday. Here’s the change-up with this one: The wintry weather seems more likely to stay south of New York as opposed to north.

A mid level shortwave trough will eject northeastward from the South-Central United States early this week, and in doing so will spawn the development of a surface low over the Mississippi Valley. This surface low will shift northeast with time, toward the Mid Atlantic states on Monday and Tuesday. While the mid level energy de-amplifies a bit, the storm system will move toward the coast.

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John Homenuk

We’re shipping up to…Provincetown

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Call us crazy. But we’re heading up to Provincetown, the northern tip of Cape Cod, for the upcoming Nor’Easter this weekend into Presidents Day. And while this may seem somewhat insane to you given the degree of snowfall in New England and the predicted power of this Nor’Easter, look on the bright side: You’ll get to experience the wrath of the Nor’Easter through our website. For us, this is likely to be the thrill of a lifetime. Don’t worry — we’re still fully staffed for the storm in New Jersey, New York City, and Long Island.

Forecast models are in good agreement on the track of the Nor’Easter — which will move from the Northeast States to a position off the coast of New Jersey and eventually southeast of Cape Cod and into the Gulf of Maine. Meanwhile, a mid level center will shift south of Long Island and Southeast of Cape Cod, with impressive mid and upper level dynamics driving the potential for heavy precipitation. Snow is expected to develop later Saturday and continue into Sunday, when it will be heavy at times.

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