John Homenuk

What to know about Hermine and how it may affect the Northeast

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Tropical Storm Hermine formed earlier today in the Central Gulf of Mexico, after several days of being tracked and obsessively monitored by meteorologists and weather hobbyists alike. Regardless, the storm has strengthened over the last 24 hours and is expected to continue to do so as it moves northeastward towards the Florida Peninsula. Thereafter, forecast models have taken a dramatic turn in their handling of the storm system.

Current forecast model guidance and ensemble data suggests that Hermine, after making landfall along the Florida Peninsula, will track northeastward along the Southeast Coast before re-emerging off the Mid Atlantic shoreline. As this occurs, the storm will begin to interact with an upper level system which is forecast to drop southward through the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic States. This interaction may pull Hermine westward back towards the Mid Atlantic and/or Northeast US coasts by late this weekend into Labor Day.

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Miguel Pierre

(Premium) Tropical Storm Hermine Increasingly Likely to Affect our Region

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We continue to carefully monitor developments with tropical storm Hermine currently over the Gulf of Mexico. It is forecast to make landfall near around the Florida Big Bend area, as a tropical storm. But it could intensity more — into a Category 1 Hurricane — before making landfall. Therefore, a hurricane watch has also been issued for this region. The main threat will still be heavy rainfall and perhaps some coastal flooding and storm surge along the coast, due to the new moon cycle.

For our region, we watch for at least the remnants of this system to affect our area. Model guidance has been indicating that a northern stream shortwave will break off the upper-level trough that will passing through the Northeast tonight and tomorrow. This will trail the that trough and create a new, powerful shortwave trough in the Ohio Valley — similar to what we sometimes see during our strongest snowstorms. Then this shortwave trough and energy will amplify the downstream pattern, and thus interact with the shortwave energy from Tropical Storm Hermine, as it moves up somewhere near the Georgia and Carolina coasts on Friday.

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Miguel Pierre

Tuesday Overview: Nice Today, Showers/T-storms Possible by Wednesday night

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Today is shaping up to be beautiful day with plenty of sunshine for most of the region. Temperatures this afternoon will warm into the middle 80s with humidity remaining comfortable. Some sea-breezes later this afternoon may keep areas near the shore a little cooler. Tonight, humidity will start to increase with light winds becoming more southeasterly. Clouds will also increase later tonight, which will keep temperatures from dropping as much as last night.

More southwest flow tomorrow, will cause humidity to increase. More clouds will be likely be around tomorrow, with a cold front and upper-level trough approaching from the west. If there is still enough sunshine, temperatures will likely reach the upper 80s to around 90, away from the shore.  Some isolated or widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon or evening. But are more likely later tomorrow night and into Thursday morning, with more tropical moisture coming northward along the front. Some heavy downpours are possible. Clearing will begin taking later Thursday afternoon as front moves east of region. Some other highlights for next several days.

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Miguel Pierre

Weekend Overview: Very Warm and Dry Weather Through Sunday

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Beautiful, summery weather is store for this weekend with high pressure north and east of region in control.  Today will have plenty of sunshine with temperatures rising into upper 80s  around 90 this afternoon, especially inland. Light easterly winds may keep some areas near the shore a little cooler in the lower to middle 80s. These temperatures, are still several degrees warmer than average for this time year. But humidity will be more comfortable. Skies will remain mostly clear tonight with temperatures dropping into lower 70s over NYC metro and down into 60s in suburbs overnight.

Sunday will be mostly sunny again with high temperatures likely in middle to upper 80s, at least over inland sections. However, with high pressure further shifting northeast of the region, this will cause more southeast winds and sea-breezes to develop during the afternoon, especially over parts of Long Island and other south-facing shore. Which may see high temperatures only in the lower to middle 80s tomorrow. Which is still slightly above average. Some other highlights for the next few days:

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