Miguel Pierre

Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Update: Rain, Winds, Rough Surf for the Mid-Atlantic Coast Tuesday

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Good afternoon! Our forecasting team continues to monitor Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten, currently sitting off the South Carolina coast. The system still looks lacks a well-defined center of circulation this afternoon. However, deep convection has increased around and east of the center. It still possible that storm will gain enough organization for it to be classified as tropical depression or Tropical Storm Irma tonight or Tuesday. Tropical Storm Warnings have now been issued for parts of the North Carolina coast.

The storm is still underneath some strong west-southwesterly shear. If this becomes a tropical cyclone, it’s unlikely that this system will intensify into a hurricane before becoming a non-tropical storm or Nor’easter by Tuesday night or Wednesday off the Delmarva. Regardless of classification, potential impacts are not likely to change along the Mid-Atlantic and Southern New England Coasts. Heavy rainfall will likely spread northward over Eastern North Carolina and Southeast Virginia later tonight. Rainfall totals between 2” to 4” with locally higher amounts are likely. East-northeast winds will likely gust to tropical storm force between 40mph and 60mph.

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Miguel Pierre

Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten: Significant Impacts in the Carolinas Possible

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Plenty of attention has been on Harvey this weekend making landfall as a major Category 4 hurricane near Rockport, Texas, and then causing catastrophic flooding in and near the Houston Metropolitan area. This will likely not change over the next several days, as Harvey continues to meander over South Texas, dumping waves of heavy rainfall. But another storm is beginning to take shape off the Southeast Coast. This storm has been classified by the National Hurricane Center as Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten, which was previously invest 92L that was followed since it was way out in the Atlantic. Wind shear and dry air over much of the Western and Central Atlantic had kept this system from organizing. However, this system has become better organized just off the South Carolina and Georgia coasts this afternoon.

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Miguel Pierre

Hurricane Harvey Midday Update: Devastating Impacts Expected in South Texas

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About six days ago, our forecasting team got together to discuss the possibility of tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico. After some debate, we decided to push an update out to clients that detailed the potential for Harvey — then an open wave — to regenerate into a tropical storm again and pose a threat to the Gulf Coast, perhaps reaching minimal hurricane strength. However, we never could have imagined, at the time, that the situation would become this dire or significant, as Harvey rapidly intensified from a tropical depression into a category 2/3 borderline hurricane over the past 24-36 hours. It’s usually quite difficult for an open wave to rapidly intensify after days of weakening over the Yucatan Peninsula. But Harvey defied those odds, which will result in devastating impacts.

Hurricane Harvey continued to strengthen slowly this morning, with the pressure slowly dropping into the 940mbs. As of 11am maximum sustained winds were still at 110mph, just underneath Category 3 strength. The hurricane continues to move north-northwest with outer rain bands now reaching the Texas Coast, with some tropical storm force winds. Harvey is expected to continue to intensify today into a major hurricane, while it moves over very warm sea-surface temperatures and heat content over the Western Gulf of Mexico, with a continued very favorable mid-upper atmosphere for strengthening.

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John Homenuk

Midday Update: Harvey now a hurricane, major hurricane likely before landfall

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Harvey has been strengthening this morning, with dropping pressure and increasing winds per the latest information from the hurricane hunter aircraft and dropsondes. In fact, a special 1:00pm EDT update has confirmed that Harvey has already strengthened into a hurricane, with winds of 80mph and a pressure down to 981mb. Based on latest satellite imagery, which shows thunderstorms exploding around the eye, as well as the aforementioned new observations, Harvey may be starting to rapidly intensify. It is now expected that the storm will strengthen into a Major Hurricane prior to landfall in Texas.

The potential for the storm to strengthen into a Major Hurricane prior to landfall has been present all along, but remains highly dependent on the exact speed and track of the tropical system. As it stands today, however, the conditions surrounding Harvey are highly favorable for rapid intensification. Within a low shear environment and underneath a larger, broad anticyclone, Harvey appears likely to develop asymmetrical outflow characteristics with a strong, deep core and eyewall.

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