After battling through a few weeks of colder than normal weather, we have now made the jump straight to high humidity and warmth. How exciting! In all seriousness, summer-like weather is, at least for the time being, here to stay. Temperatures today will approach the 80’s and humidity levels will once again be sky-high with rising dew points and atmospheric moisture content.
Read more
Showery and drizzly weather over the past 24 hours has been the sign of an incoming storm system. A warm front is lifting slowly northward through the Mid-Atlantic states this evening, and will make its way through NYC during the morning hours on Friday. Warm air (thanks, southwest winds!) will then come surging in. Here’s how the forecast will shake down over the next few days:
Read more
The active weather pattern is expected to continue in the Northeast this week. Temperatures will fluctuate quite a bit, and a few rounds of showers are likely. Here’s the breakdown over the next few days
The week will start off quiet enough, but temperatures will remain quite cool. Highs are expected to reach only into the middle to upper 40’s on Monday, as a cooler airmass temporarily swings by. Clouds will increase later in the day.
Showers are expected by Monday evening and could continue into Tuesday as a disturbance passes by. Moisture isn’t overly impressive, but there will be enough lift in the atmosphere for showery conditions. We aren’t expecting any areas of heavy rainfall. Temperatures on Tuesday will be noticeably warmer, in the middle to upper 50’s.
The nicest day of the week by far looks to be Wednesday. Temperatures will reach into the mid 50’s with lots of sunshine anticipated behind the aforementioned disturbance.
The weather pattern will take an unsettled turn again later in the week. A storm system ejecting into the Plains states will send moisture surging northward, with a disturbance reaching the Ohio Valley. Expect periods of showers as soon as late Wednesday evening.
Some periods of heavy rain are possible on Thursday as the low pressure center passes near our area. Showery conditions will likely persist well into Friday as the main surface low then moves into the Great Lakes.
Temperatures will trend much warmer by Friday, with highs possibly reaching into the 70’s. Showers and clouds are likely to be around, but it will certainly feel like Spring.
The system clears out of the area by Saturday with cooler temperatures returning again. The roller coaster of temperatures is fairly common for Spring, but will be accentuated by a few storm systems this week.
We’ll have further updates on the pattern as it evolves over the next few days.
Forecast model and ensemble guidance continues to suggest that a strong coastal storm will develop later this week. A disturbance diving southward from Canada is the main culprit, as it interacts with a secondary disturbance near the US East Coast. The exact timing and details of the disturbances evolution will go a long way towards determining impacts in the Northeast US.
While not currently anticipated, winter weather could become a possibility with this system. This would be especially true if the coastal storm is able to rapidly strengthen near or south of our latitude.
As is the case with most coastal storms, the setup is quite intricate. There are a few key components:
Ensemble guidance strongly suggests that the disturbance over the Great Lakes region (Disturbance No. 2 above) will drive southeastwards. This will allow it the opportunity to interact with, or potentially phase with, the disturbance over the Mid Atlantic coast (Disturbance No. 1 above).
The result of this interaction and amplification could be the development of a strong coastal storm. As you might imagine, the exact details of how these two features interact will have huge implications on the coastal storm that develops and the resulting forecast.
At the moment, ensembles are in unusually strong agreement that a notable coastal storm will develop. The exact track of the system is uncertain, but the signal is strong for this range (3-5 days) with almost all ensemble members indicating a storm of some sort.
A myriad of impacts are possible throughout the Northeast states from this system, including but not limited to significant snowfall, snow squalls, coastal flooding, and strong wind gusts. Exactly how the system evolves will have a huge impact on the weather observed in our area.
At the moment, the storm looks likely to rapidly strengthen just – and we cannot stress this enough, just – far enough east for the NYC Metro area to avoid significant impacts. Still, even with the current thinking, the potential for snow squalls and blustery winds will exist.
The potential exists for a late season winter storm with this system, particularly in parts of New England. The further south/west the storm tracks, and the faster it strengthens, the more widespread wintry weather impacts could be – even in our area. The further east or more progressive it remains, the less likely impacts will be.
Stay tuned over the next few days for more details, and be sure to follow along on our social media accounts for more updates on the potential storm system.