Steven Copertino

Public Analysis: More Dreary Weather Likely Thursday, Improvements This Weekend?

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Good Evening!

Most of the area saw a rather damp and dreary start to the work week today as areas of moderate to heavy rainfall moved over portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. This is due in part to a large upper level system over the central part of the country that will be gradually strengthening and progressing eastward over the rest of the week. This should allow for more damp and unsettled conditions down the line, especially on Thursday and Friday. A break from this pattern may be possible by the time we reach the Memorial Day Weekend, but this will all depend on the evolution of the previous systems this week.

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Today Into Tonight

Most of the tri-state area and portions of southern Pennsylvania saw a rather damp and cool day today with highs only reaching into the mid 50’s to lower 60’s. Though much of the area saw rain today, the heaviest bulk of the rain was concentrated to portions of central and southern New Jersey, where localized amounts over 2″ were seen. Further north totals were more in the trace to half-an-inch mark, especially in northwestern New Jersey, southern New York, as well as Connecticut. The rain has begun to pull away from the area, with only coastal sections of New Jersey and Long Island still stuck under steadier showers. Drizzle is likely to last for some locations until after dark, but overall conditions should begin to improve despite mostly cloudy skies. Some clearing may take place towards the late evening hours, or early tomorrow morning, but the cloud cover should be able to hold overnight lows into the lower to middle 50’s for much of the area, including the coast.

A cold front will pass through the area later this evening and usher in a much drier, but also temporary air-mass from the north and west that will work to end any lingering showers that may exist over the area. An area of weak high pressure just north of the region in addition to the introduction of drier air will decrease cloud cover tomorrow afternoon. A weak wave of low pressure will develop along the cold front that passed over our area and this low pressure will begin to move northeastward by later tomorrow afternoon.

Most of this afternoons model guidance keeps this small area of low pressure to the south and east of the area, but there is the possibility that at the very least this low will lead to an increase in cloudiness, but some rain showers are possible along the coastal sections of New Jersey and Long Island. Highs tomorrow will be just slightly warmer than today as highs are able to reach into the upper 60’s and lower 70’s across the area, and some locations may see slightly warmer highs if they are able to experience prolonged periods of clearing. These highs will be slightly below-normal over much of the region, with departures around 5 degrees below-average. With increased cloudiness and windier conditions possible, lows tomorrow evening will likely remain in the middle to upper 50’s, with the possibility of isolated locations holding in the low 60’s.

Latest regional radar data, stations plots, visible satellite imagery , and temperature plots as of this evening showing cloudy, cool, and damp conditions persisting over portions of the area (Courtesy of College of DuPage)

Latest regional radar data, stations plots, visible satellite imagery , and temperature plots as of this evening showing cloudy, cool, and damp conditions persisting over portions of the area (Courtesy of College of DuPage)

Wednesday and Thursday 

Some light rain showers may linger along the coast on Wednesday morning, but as the weak area of low pressure begins to pull away, any potential impacts will begin to diminish. This will lead to improving skies during the afternoon hours with peaks of sunshine, allowing highs to reach into the upper 60’s to middle 70’s over the entire area.

The large upper level low that we have been talking about for over a week now will likely be rotating into the Great Lakes region and portions of the Northeast by late Wednesday evening or very early Thursday morning. As this large system begins to lumber towards us, it will drag up an impressive amount of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and southwestern Atlantic and begin to transport it northward towards our area. Once this upper level system begins to mature and strengthen, it will spawn a primary area of low pressure over the Appalachian mountains, and potentially another low that may develop just off the Mid-Atlantic coast.

There are some uncertainties regarding this system, but steady, heavier rain is likely during the day on Thursday, especially if the secondary low develops off the coast. However, if the system turns out to mature quicker and becomes more disorganized once it reaches our area, then the rain may be more sporadic and in the form of convection, but will still have the chance to produce some heavy rain.

This afternoons American model showing very impressive upper level jet structure that looks to be quite favorable for heavy rainfall over portions of our area on Thursday (Valid 8am Thursday)

This afternoons American model showing very impressive upper level jet structure that looks to be quite favorable for heavy rainfall over portions of our area on Thursday (Valid 8am Thursday)

Friday and Beyond

This area of low pressure looks to begin to fill-in and stall somewhere over the Northeast on Friday morning due to the high-latitude blocking that has persisted near the Canadian Maritime region and portions of Greenland. This should allow cloudy conditions, cooler temperatures, and  the threat of showers to last throughout the rest of the day as the low lingers around the region during the day.

Some improving weather looks likely for the start of the first big holiday weekend of the Summer,  at least on Saturday and no washouts are anticipated each day. So don’t cancel or change any outdoor plans yet!

However, there may be some left over blocking and some upper level ridging over the West Coast, which may continue to support a somewhat unsettled and potentially active weather pattern into this weekend. At this time, model guidance is beginning to suggest that another storm system tracking northwest of region, that could bring some showers to the region, sometime on Sunday or on Memorial Day. But more forecast details will likely be fined tuned throughout the week.

This afternoons American model showing showing yet another potential system working its way down from Canada around the Memorial Day time frame

This afternoons American model showing showing yet another potential system working its way down from Canada around the Memorial Day time frame

Stay tuned for another for more updates, with discussion on later this week and Memorial Day Weekend!

For more information and posts like this one, make sure you sign up for Zone Forecasts — where multiple detailed articles, videos, and interactives are posted each day. Also, come interact with our staff and many other weather enthusiasts at 33andrain.com!

Have a great evening!

Steve Copertino

Steven Copertino

Public Analysis: Calm and Cool Weekend, Turning Unsettled Next Week

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Good afternoon and Happy Friday! 

Today has been yest another hot and relatively muggy day in a strong of abnormally warm, summer-like heat. This heats time is very limited as a cold front is set to move through the region, leaving much cooler and stable conditions for the upcoming weekend. As discussed over the past week or so, high-latitude blocking over Greenland and Atlantic Canada will set the stage for a large upper level trough to set up over the eastern two-thirds of the country. This trough will likely bring a few shots at some heavy precipitation, potentially lasting through much of the work week as we draw closer to the Holiday Weekend!

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Today and This Evening

This afternoon we saw temperatures shoot back up into the upper 80’s and lows 90’s across the entire region, with some stations like La Guardia Airport and Caldwell, New Jersey seeing highs shoot into the mid 90’s (95F)! Despite the clear skies and slight breeze today has also felt relatively muggy as dew-points rose into the lower to mid 60’s. This muggy air-mass has also allowed instability to build over much of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast states, and combined with some modest wind-shear, has allowed some very isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop across portions of New Jersey and Southeastern Pennsylvania. Due to the fact that the best instability and wind-shear are disjointed from each other, the prospects of widespread, organized thunderstorms is quite low. However, very isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible, especially over southern New Jersey and Southeastern Pennsylvania. The main threat from these showers and storms will be gusty winds of around 40-50 mph, however small hail and frequent lightning may be possible with some of the stronger storms.

As we head into this evening, a cold front located over southern New England and central New York state will continue to sag south and overspread the region late tonight and into very early tomorrow morning. The flow behind the front will begin to change from very warm southerly winds, to much cooler northerly winds from Canada. These will bring lows down into the 50’s for much of the area, which will be quite the departure from what we have seen over the past few days.

Latest visible satellite imagery, station observations, and regional radar mosaic over the area, showing yet another warm and muggy afternoon. (Courtesy of College of Dupage)

Latest visible satellite imagery, station observations, and regional radar mosaic over the area, showing yet another warm and muggy afternoon. (Courtesy of College of DuPage)

This Weekend

As we start up the weekend tomorrow morning, we should see some relatively cloudy skies behind the cold front as an area of mid-level moisture works in over cool easterly winds coming off of the Atlantic which should produce areas of overcast and scattered clouds throughout most of the day. Temperatures should be relatively cool with highs in the upper 60’s to lower 70’s, which will be 20-25 degrees cooler than the past three days for much of the area. In addition to these cooler conditions, the Canadian/Maritime airmass will limit any chance for measurable precipitation throughout the day. As we head into tomorrow evening, an area of high pressure will be moving to our north and will work to reinforce the maritime airmass over our area. This will allow temperatures to drop into the upper 40’s and lower 50’s across much of the area, with partly cloudy conditions remaining.

We should see more clouds on Sunday as the continued maritime airmass and weak mid-level moisture hold over the area. Temperatures should be in the upper 60 to lower 70 range once again, but these highs should be quite variable as any areas that see prolonged peaks of sun may raise above the lower 70’s, while areas closer to the coast that may see prolonged cloudiness and southeasterly winds could wind up staying in the middle 60’s. Moisture will begin to increase later Sunday as the area of high pressure begins to shift off of the New England coast and as an area of low pressure moves through the Great Lakes region. This area of low pressure will drive a warm front through the Mid-Atlantic region, just south of our area. As time progresses, cloudiness will be on the rise and will likely become overcast towards the end of the evening as winds shift from easterly, to southerly once again. This afternoons model guidance was not in agreement on the exact timing, but the aforementioned cold front will likely not be able to progress east enough to produce widespread showers by Sunday evening. Overnight lows should remain quite moderate, with temperatures likely staying in the low 60’s to upper 50’s for most of the area.

This afternoons European model showing moisture beginning to build to the south of the region as a cold front associated with an area of low pressure in the Great Lakes begins to trudge eastward (Courtesy of AccuweatherPro)

This afternoons European model showing moisture beginning to build to the south of the region as a cold front associated with an area of low pressure in the Great Lakes begins to trudge eastward (Courtesy of AccuweatherPro)

Next Week

This afternoons model guidance did differ on the exact timing and placement of the cold front by Monday morning, but indications are that it should be located over eastern Pennsylvania by the morning commute. With moisture surging up to the east of the front, substantial cloudiness is likely to be present over the region, but depending on just where the warm front is located, some isolated peaks of sun will be possible. High temperatures on Monday will be very dependent on where the warm front is located as this will dictate where partial sunshine will be possible. By late morning, the actual cold front will likely move through the region and will likely have the potential to bring some showers and thunderstorms over the region. A strong southerly jet will continue to feed moisture north over the area for six hours or so and there will be the potential for some heavy rainfall with training storms. Although it doesn’t seem overwhelmingly likely, there may be the potential for some localized flooding, so make sure to stay tuned for further updates!

Tuesday will likely be a calm and cooler day as another storm begins to gather to our south with more possible moderate to heavy rainfall for the area on Wednesday. This will continue to be the theme for the week as a large upper level trough will be cemented over the central and eastern states due to another period of prolonged high latitude blocking that will allow multiple systems to slow down and congeal together to our south. While it is possible that this trough produces multiple rain threats over the next week, there is also the potential that we return to another period of below-normal temperatures coming down from Canada. Though it’s around ten days out as of today, there are some indications that this period of cooler and unsettled weather may last into the Memorial Day weekend. Stay tuned for the numerous upcoming rain threat as well as details on the upcoming Holiday Weekend!

This afternoons European model showing a very large and very anomalous upper level trough parked over the Ohio Valley and Eastern US that has the potential to bring multiple shots at heavy rain and below-normal temperatures (Courtesy of Accuweather Pro)

This afternoons European model showing a very large and very anomalous upper level trough parked over the Ohio Valley and Eastern US that has the potential to bring multiple shots at heavy rain and below-normal temperatures (Courtesy of Accuweather Pro)

or more information and posts like this one, make sure you sign up for Zone Forecasts — where multiple detailed articles, videos, and interactives are posted each day. Also, come interact with our staff and many other weather enthusiasts at 33andrain.com!

Have a great weekend!

Steve Copertino

Steven Copertino

Public Analysis: Brief Taste of Summer, Cooler Conditions Likely This Weekend

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Good Afternoon! 

Earlier this week we mentioned that there was a strong likelihood that much of the area would be seeing temperatures rising into the mid to upper 80’s, and possibly 90’s starting today. This has indeed turned out to be true, with many stations this afternoon reporting highs in the lower 90’s across Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York, and Connecticut. Tomorrow looks to be even warmer, with highs possibly reaching the mid 90’s by lunchtime tomorrow. However, this heat looks to be short-lived as another cool shot from Canada will likely bring temperatures back down to seasonable levels by this weekend!

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Due to the rather clear and calm conditions over the area last evening, most locations were able to drop down into the lower 50’s and upper 40’s during the early morning hours today, which made for a cool start to the day for anyone who was active before today’s sunrise. After sunrise, the clear and calm condition’s allowed temperatures to shoot up into the upper 80’s and lower 90’s across the entire region, with locations in Long Islands and coastal Connecticut seeing lower temps due to southerly winds coming off the of the cooler Atlantic ocean. This was quite the impressive rebound, and the 40+ degree rise in temperatures this afternoon actually helped a few record highs get surpassed, with LaGuardia Airport(NY), Monticello (NY), Danbury (CT), Hartford (CT), and Belmar (NJ) all beating their daily high temperatures. The rest of the afternoon should continue to be quite warm and pleasant, with the sea-breeze likely working its way deeper into portions of New Jersey, Southeastern New York, and Connecticut.

Later this evening, temperatures should stay relatively mild as the humidity begins to increase as a subtropical high pressure system off of the southeast coast continues to move eastward and pump up moisture from the Gulf and Atlantic. Clouds may begin to increase during the evening, as increasing high-level clouds were noted on the latest visible satellite imagery. Overnight lows should remain in the upper 50’s to upper 60’s across much of the area, with the exceptions of coastal communities, which may see lows in the middle 50’s due to continued southerly winds blowing in from the cooler Atlantic.

Latest visible satellite, surface temperatures, offshore buoy data, and regional radar mosaic showing very warm temperatures over the area this afternoon. Also note the cooler temperatures over Long Island and Connecticut due to the southerly winds from the Atlantic

Latest visible satellite, surface temperatures, offshore buoy data, and regional radar mosaic showing very warm temperatures over the area this afternoon. Also note the cooler temperatures over Long Island and Connecticut due to the southerly winds from the Atlantic

If today wasn’t a good enough taste of summer for you, then tomorrow will likely deliver what you desire. While we may see some overcast and broken clouds over coastal areas tomorrow morning due to the southerly winds and enhanced moisture in the lower-levels, these clouds will likely break up quite quickly during the early afternoon hours. With low-level temperatures already quite warm, clear skies, and great southerly flow, tomorrow looks to be on track to hit the upper 80’s to low 90’s across much of the area tomorrow. Some portions of Northeastern New Jersey and Connecticut may even see highs in the mid 90’s, while coastal areas of NJ, NY, and CT see cooler temperatures overall, especially once the sea-breezes begin to set in. With temps in the lower to mid 90’s, tomorrow has a high chance of breaking quite a few daily high temperature records, even more so than today did. These warm and humid conditions will likely remain well into Thursday evening, as the model guidance over the past few days has really delayed the timing of the next cold front. Expect lows to range from the upper 60’s to lower 70’s across much of the area (excluding coastal locations)

With the increasingly humid and hot conditions expected to persist into tomorrow afternoon, the National Weather Service has issued an Air Quality Alert for the entire region. Sensitive individuals including the very young, the elderly, and persons with respiratory diseases such as asthma, should avoid strenuous outdoor activities during the afternoon and early evening hours.

High resolution North American Model showing highs in the upper 80's to mid 90's tomorrow afternoon (Courtesy of Tomer Burg)

High resolution North American Model showing highs in the upper 80’s to mid 90’s tomorrow afternoon (Courtesy of Tomer Burg)

Friday Into This Weekend 

Friday will likely be warm, but not quite as warm as Wednesday (today) or Thursday were. Winds should begin to shift to more of a westerly direction during the day on Friday ahead of an approaching cold front located in Northern New York. However, it is likely that this cold front may take its time reaching the area, and with clear skies and southwesterly/westerly winds temperatures should easily reach into the mid 80’s across most of the region. Even though temperatures will remain rather warm, we should begin to see the humidity really drop off as the front ushers in drier Canadian air. Temperatures will gradually begin to fall off as the front should move through the area by late Friday afternoon or early evening. As this front drops southward through the area, temperature will drop into the more seasonable levels, with a more pronounced northwesterly wind developing.

It is worth noting that there is a potential that they delayed timing of the frontal system on Friday may allow instability to build up enough to the point that we may see isolated showers and thunderstorms develop. However, due to the dynamics that would allow the shower and thunderstorms to grow and become more widespread remaining concentrated to the northwest, it seems unlikely that any organized activity will be likely during the day on Friday.

High pressure coming from Canada will begin to move in during the evening hours on Friday, bringing a rather substantial change in air-masses. As the high pressure moves to our north on Saturday afternoon, cooler and drier conditions are likely to persist throughout the day as a more moderate maritime air-mass replaces the warm tropical air-mass that has been over our area. Highs will likely remain in the upper 60’s to lower 70’s across the entire are, with the exception of coastal locations on both Saturday and Sunday. Lows for both days will likely be quite cooler, reaching down into the mid to low 50’s once again. These temperatures will be quite a change, with highs being 12-15 degrees below-normal. Overall, it looks like a much more pleasant and seasonable weekend is on tap, so make sure to enjoy it!

This afternoons European model showing the potential for a pretty large-scale pattern change, with a deep trough located in the east for the middle half of next week and beyond

This afternoons European model showing the potential for a pretty large-scale pattern change, with a deep trough located in the east for the middle half of next week and beyond

The next rain threat looks to be on Monday as some showers and potentially a thunderstorm or two will be possible as another cold front associated with an area of low pressure will be moving through the Northeast.

This afternoons model guidance suggests that the negative NAO will once again flex its muscles, allowing for a large trough to dig into the central portion of the country and gradually progress eastward next week. This will help to once again create a stronger chance at below-normal temperatures and even the threat for a significant precipitation in the long-range as blocking continues to take shape over Atlantic Canada.

Some pleasant, warmer or drier weather could still return at times, as synoptic features in pattern still shuffle around somewhat. But no prolonged heat is expected.  Make sure to stay tuned as we get closer to Memorial Day and begin to get a grasp of what may be on the table for the holiday weekend!

For more information and posts like this one, make sure you sign up for Zone Forecasts — where multiple detailed articles, videos, and interactives are posted each day. Also, come interact with our staff and many other weather enthusiasts at 33andrain.com!

Have a great evening!

Steve Copertino

 

Steven Copertino

Public Analysis: Much Quieter and Drier, Summerlike Conditions Possible Midweek

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Good Evening!

We are finally starting to see the last of the lingering effects of the large Nor’Easter that brought heavy rains, gusty winds, and just dreary conditions in general over the past few days to the entire Northeast. Today was a rather large improvement across much of the area from this previous weekend as clouds began to diminish from west to east earlier in the day, giving way to mostly clear skies. Due to the lack of clouds and a much drier air-mass in place, temperatures were able to climb into the middle 60’s and even the low 70’s across the area. Today was also quite gusty at times across the region due to a rather impressive pressure gradient over the area as a developing area of high pressure began to move in over the Great Lakes and the decaying coastal storm began to slowly move out to the east over the open Atlantic.

As we continue on through this evening, mainly clear conditions are expected, with the exception of eastern portions of Long Island and Connecticut due to lingering clouds from the area of low pressure off of Cape Cod. The area of high pressure over the Great Lakes will move over portions of western Pennsylvania just after sunset, so we can expect any remaining windy conditions to die-off considerably after dark. As the high pressure moves in, it will also usher in drier air throughout all levels of the atmosphere which will allow for rather clear conditions to persist throughout the evening. With clear skies, dry air, and light winds, we can expect temperatures to drop quite a bit this evening through radiational cooling. Low temperatures should drop into the upper 40’s to low 50’s across the majority of the area, with some locations (especially in the Pine Barrens and to the NW) dropping well into the 40’s.

Current regional radar mosaic, surface temperatures, and visible satellite imagery showing much-improved conditions across much of the area

Current regional radar mosaic, surface temperatures, and visible satellite imagery showing much-improved conditions across much of the area

Tuesday Through Wednesday

Tomorrow will be the start of a rather significant warm-up across the region as a strong ridge of high pressure begins to build over our area through the next few days. Tomorrow will likely start off rather cool, but with clear skies and winds shifting from the west, to more southerly throughout the afternoon, temperatures should be able to climb quite significantly. Highs will range from the middle 70’s to lower 80’s across much of the region, with even coastal sections seeing the much warmer temperatures, as sea-breezes will likely hold off until later in the day. The dry and warmer conditions will last throughout the day and into the evening, with the southerly flow aiding in temperatures only falling into the middle to upper 50’s tomorrow night.

As the ridge begins to flex its muscles on Wednesday, we will see much of the same conditions once again, with temperatures quickly rising by late morning and into the early afternoon hours. As mid-level temperatures rise quite significantly, highs will soar well into the 80’s under clear skies and southwesterly winds. Some locations to the south of the city may actually get quite close to 90 degrees on Wednesday, with the most likely spots being in southern New Jersey and Southeast Pennsylvania. Again, the southwesterly flow will limit lows on Wednesday, and possibly keep them in the lower 70’s across much of New Jersey and Connecticut, with coastal sections of Long Island and Connecticut seeing lows drop down in the 60’s.

Afternoon European model showing the strong mid-level ridging taking shape over the Northeast United States on Wednesday (Valid 2pm Wednesday)

Afternoon European model showing the strong mid-level ridging taking shape over the Northeast United States on Wednesday (Valid 2pm Wednesday)

Thursday and Beyond 

Thursday is likely to be the warmest day of the year thus far, with the ridging over our area likely to be at its peak. This should allow mid-level temperatures to become quite high over the area, which will allow for temperatures to once again soar into the upper 80’s and even lower 90’s across the entire area by the late afternoon hours on Thursday. Thursday should be quite beautiful with, light southerly winds, clear skies, however it may become more humid during the afternoon as dewpoints reach into the lower 60’s across the region. These high temperatures will be quite anomalous for this time of year, with departures likely reaching 20-30 degrees above normal. It is worth noting that afternoon sea-breezes will be capable of knocking down temperatures a good 10-15 degrees in a short period of time near coastal sections of Long Island, Connecticut, and New Jersey on Wednesday through Thursday.

This afternoons latest model guidance continues to suggest that a cold front may sweep through the region later in the day Thursday and into the early morning hours on Friday. Whether or not we see any measurable precipitation will be highly dependent on the overall timing of the frontal system, but there will be the possibility for some showers and even some thunderstorms ahead of the front, which could have the potential for some gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall, but at the moment, this activity is not expected to be widespread. Temperatures on Friday and the weekend will likely drop a bit, with highs in the 70’s seeming possible at this time.

Overall, the latest guidance suggest that some high-latitude blocking will return again over next couple weeks. This will support more troughs with periods of cooler or unsettled weather over Northeast and Mid-Atlantic region. So enjoy another taste of summer weather this week. As it will be short-lived again. No prolonged warmth or heat appears to be coming the foreseeable future. Stay tuned for more forecast update through this week!

European Model 500mb Height Anomalies, showing a return to high-latitude blocking and a return to cooler weather once again

European Model 500mb Height Anomalies, showing a return to high-latitude blocking and a return to cooler weather once again

For more information and posts like this one, make sure you sign up for Zone Forecasts — where multiple detailed articles, videos, and interactives are posted each day. Also, come interact with our staff and many other weather enthusiasts at 33andrain.com!

Have a great evening!

Steve Copertino