John Homenuk

High latitude ridging, and the return of a colder pattern

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Just a week ago, we spent time in our Public Threat Analysis speaking of about the return of a Southeast Ridge towards the end of December. Just 7 days later, we’ll be discussing the return of a colder, more active weather pattern as we move forward through the next 10 days and into early and middle January.

Far away from the Northeast United States, a strong storm system in Eastern Asia is set to kick off a chain of events — a wave breaking event — in the Pacific Ocean, which will help change an otherwise stagnant pattern there. Ridging is forecast to develop over the Northeast Pacific from the Aleutian Islands into Alaska and become quite anomalous by this upcoming weekend.

This may not initially seem overly significant, but it is. Large, anomalous ridges that develop from the Aleutian Islands towards Alaska and build northward work effectively to both dislodge cold air further south, and amplify the weather pattern across the Lower 48 of the United States. The pattern being advertised is much different than the one we have been experiencing over the last week.

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John Homenuk

Winter hiatus expected to close out December

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After a two week period featuring a polar vortex intrusion, colder than normal temperatures, and frequent winter weather opportunities (especially in the interior) the pattern this week will be one of transition. The hemispheric pattern is undergoing some fairly significant changes, which are working to take then cold air back to its source region by late this week, over the arctic and north pole.

Yes, the arc is swinging back the other way, as the same cold air which was disrupted and pushed southward into the Northern 1/3 of the United States is retreating fairly dramatically. In the stratosphere, the polar vortex is tightening and strengthening over the North Pole, a dramatic difference from the vortex we observed earlier in the season which was stretched, nearly split, and elongated.

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John Homenuk

Impactful winter storm expected Saturday AM

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Colder trends, discussed at length over the past few days, have come into better focus over the past 12 to 24 hours, with mesoscale forecast models and short term weather observations lining up with those ideas. The result will be an impactful winter storm throughout much of the area — save for Southern New Jersey and some coastal locations — with the focus on interior Northern New Jersey, Southeast New York and Connecticut.

As always, our latest products are available and break down the threat for snow, freezing rain, and sleet throughout the area. We invite you to watch our latest Premium Discussion video, which includes a narrative of images and ideas with details of how we compiled our forecast.

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John Homenuk

Arctic air, storminess, and pattern longevity

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Synopsis: Arctic air drops into the Northeast US late this week, with temperatures 20 to 30 degrees below normal. A storm pattern continues with another winter storm expected this weekend. The longevity of this cold comes into question as Christmas week approaches with the return of a Southeast Ridge.

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Lets face it — there has been a ton of conversation in regards to this colder pattern over the past few weeks. Our team of forecasters has been talking about it for more than a few weeks now –and it is finally arriving this week. A piece of the polar vortex (yes, the one you hear about a lot) will drop southward into Canada and eventually through parts of the Northeast states late this week. This will lead to temperatures dropping well below normal over a large part of the region.

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