Miguel Pierre

Monday Overview: Oppressive Heat with Severe Thunderstorms Possible Today

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The fourth day of a heatwave — and likely the peak of it — is underway throughout the area. A stronger mid-level ridge and a deeper southwesterly flow will cause temperatures to reach the middle to upper 90s this afternoon. Some spots could reach 100F with enough sunshine. The big difference compared to the past few days, however, is that more humidity will cause oppressive heat today. Heat index values could be between 105° to 110° F this afternoon.

As a pre-frontal trough and then cold front approaches, some showers and thunderstorms are likely in the area from late this afternoon through the evening. There is some potential, with increasing instability and shear, for some more organized strong to severe thunderstorms. Damaging wind gusts will be the main threat from these thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center now has a slight risk for severe thunderstorms for most of the region this afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms could also produce frequent cloud to ground lightning and very heavy rainfall with localized flash flooding. Some other highlight for next few days:

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Miguel Pierre

Weekend Overview: Heat wave continues into early next week

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The heat wave started on Friday for most of the region with temperatures reaching the middle to upper 90s. Fortunately some strong to severe thunderstorms stayed mostly northeast of region last night. Today will be another very hot day, with sunshine and temperatures rising into middle to upper 90s again this afternoon — perhaps even touching 100°F in a few spots such as JFK and EWR. It will actually be less humid today than on Friday with drier, gusty west-northwest winds this afternoon. But heat index values will still be near 100°F this afternoon, with the very hot temperatures.

A weak cold front will pass through this evening, but we will remain dry. A slightly cooler and drier airmass behind it will be coming behind this cold front tonight and Sunday. It will still be very warm overnight then hot again on Sunday with temperatures reaching the lower to middle 90s again, over much of New Jersey and NYC metro. Some afternoon sea-breezes may bring some cooler relief near the coast. But humidity will also increase for those areas. Some other highlights for next few days below:

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John Homenuk

Monday Overview: Hot again, strong storms possible late

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The heat is back on, and it’s showing no signs of letting up. After a hot day on Sunday, Monday looks likely to be several degrees warmer throughout much of the area. High temperatures will approach the middle and upper 90’s, especially away from the area coasts. Heat index values in the upper 90’s, occasionally near 100, will make it feel oppressive at times.

In addition to the heat, a threat of strong to severe thunderstorms exists during the late afternoon and evening. This will be especially true across western portions of the forecast area. The Storm Prediction Center has placed western parts of New Jersey and Southeast New York in a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms on Monday afternoon and evening. Some highlights below:

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John Homenuk

Weekend Overview: Hot, unsettled pattern takes hold

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After strong and severe thunderstorms brought fairly widespread wind damage reports to the area on Thursday, many woke up expecting much cooler air this morning. They were wrong: Temperatures remained in the 70’s and even low 80’s in some spots overnight. Hot weather is again expected on Friday, with highs in the middle 90’s, and it may even be warmer than Thursday near the coast. The culprit? West offshore winds, keeping any seabreeze boundaries right near the coast.

The good news is that the ridiculous, nearly tropical airmass with dew points near 75 will be ushered out of the area by these westerly winds. Although high temperatures will reach into the 90’s, dew points closer to the middle 60’s are likely throughout the area, which will feel like a bit of a relief. A few scattered showers are possible Friday afternoon, but overall, calm and hot weather will be in control. The rest of the weekend looks likely to remain transitional and unsettled. We’ve got the highlights below:

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