Miguel Pierre

Tuesday Overview: More showers & t-storms later this afternoon

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Unsettled weather continues this afternoon, with a cold front and upper-level trough slowly approaching the region. Skies clearing to the west will cause instability to increase enough for showers and thunderstorms to develop over Central and Eastern Pennsylvania later this afternoon by early this evening. These thunderstorms will gradually move into western parts of New Jersey and the Lower Hudson Valley by early this evening. Strong or severe thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall and isolated damaging wind gusts. For this reason SPC has placed Northwest NJ and Orange County NY in slight risk for severe weather. 

A marginal risk remains for Northeast New Jersey New York City and rest of Lower Hudson Valley. More cloud cover and onshore flow will keep the rest of region in a more stable airmass, most likely causing stronger thunderstorms to weaken, as they approach the coast this evening. Some heavy downpours and lightning are still possible with showers and thunderstorms this evening.  Where clouds break for any sunshine later this afternoon, temperatures will slowly rise into the upper 70s or lower 80s. Other areas, especially closer to the Coast, may remain cooler. Showers and thunderstorms may linger around until late tonight with the cold front and shortwave trough still moving slowly through the region. This storm system could have an impact on the Yankees Game tonight. Read more

Miguel Pierre

Atmospheric pattern may support periods of heat by mid July

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Warmer temperatures have returned this week, with highs reaching back into the middle and upper 80s. But the pattern still has yet to change to support any type of heat waves — and it doesn’t look like it will over the next week or so. Another cooling trend during the latter half of next week will bring an end to the month of June. For those who are looking ahead to the warm, hot days of summer, or trying get a heads up on any excessive heat for crops — this may escalate the amount of questions in regards to how this summer will turn out. Are there any changes expected to the atmospheric pattern over the next few weeks?

A ridge amplifying over the West Coast early this week will lead to a large trough over much of the Central and Eastern US for the later half of this week and into the July 4th holiday weekend. This pattern evolution can be largely attributed current +PDO influence and MJO progression during neutral ENSO conditions thus far this meteorological summer. This pattern should continue for another couple of weeks, before any significant changes take place to support more heat over Northeast US..

Ahead of this large trough this week will be a slow-moving cold front that could cause some showers and thunderstorms with possibly some heavy rainfall from late tonight through Wednesday. After this cold front moves passed the region, high pressure builds in briefly for Thursday with temperatures near average in lower or 80s. Then more embedded disturbances moving around this trough could provide more chances for showers and thunderstorms on Friday and then possibly over the July 4th holiday weekend.

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500mb Vort
Miguel Pierre

Monday Musings: Pleasant, warm weather continues today, more showers & t-storms possible by Tuesday

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We know it’s the Monday blues for many of you. It was a beautiful, pleasantly warm weekend that we just didn’t want to end either.  For the most part, today will continue our stretch of pleasant, warm weather with more sunshine and temperatures rising into lower to middle 80s again this afternoon. Southerly winds will keep areas over Long Island and other south-facing shores possibly in the 70s.

A storm system slowly approaching from the Great Lakes will begin to cause some clouds to increase and thicken later this afternoon. There is a slight chance of some scattered showers and thunderstorms in parts of the region late this afternoon or this evening with a weakening cold front or pre-frontal trough approaching from the west. But most of this activity should remain well north and west of NYC.

Dew points will remain low and this should generally prevent any showers from making it through the region during the daytime hours. Instead, showers should remain focused near areas of better lift for precipitation, over Eastern Pennsylvania and Western New Jersey. Some weak shortwave energy moving over the region could lead to more scattered showers and thunderstorms later tonight and early Tuesday morning.

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Miguel Pierre

Friday overview: Pleasant, warm weather through the weekend

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Good news for beautiful weather lovers! High pressure to the north will provide the region with pleasant, warm weather today. Some more clouds may show this some weak passing with a weak upper-level disturbance passing through region. But overall expect sunshine to dominate today with temperatures reach in the lower to middle 80s this afternoon.

Now here’s some better news! This weekend will be gorgeous for most outdoor plans, as high pressure remains in control. High temperatures for much of the region, will be in the lower to middle 80s each day through Sunday. But if you are heading down to shores or beaches this weekend, temperatures will likely be a little cooler with a persistent light onshore flow, each day. Here are a few other highlights today for the region:

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