John Homenuk

Thursday Overview: Unsettled start, nicer finish

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The long stretch of sunshine and pleasant weather has ended! Well, sort of. A disturbance passing by this morning will bring periods of rain to the area, especially areas south and west of New York City. While clouds and showers will stick around for parts of the morning, clearing is expected as the day progresses.

Forecast models show the cloud deck meandering near the city itself, with partly to mostly cloudy conditions over Long Island and Connecticut. Meanwhile, much of Central and Southern NJ will battle showers until the late morning or afternoon hours. Once this disturbances slides seaward, however, clearing is expected throughout the area.

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John Homenuk

Strong storms possible Saturday, but uncertainty remains high

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A complex atmospheric pattern is expected to unfold on Saturday, and the evolution may lead to the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms in the Northeast states. As a mid level ridge builds toward the area from Friday Night into Saturday, a disturbance associated with a thunderstorm complex in the Northern Midwest states will ride over the top of this ridge, eventually diving southeast from Southeast Canada into the Northeast on Saturday. But, as you can imagine, forecast models are struggling with the exact details of its movement through the area.

Convection, inherently, is difficult to forecast. Models are likely to struggle with this disturbance as thunderstorms develop today over the Northern Midwest and head toward parts of the Great Lakes. More importantly, this disturbance will move northeastward into Southeast Canada, along the periphery of a mid level ridge, and then dive southeastward into our area later Saturday — and the timing of its approach becomes critical to the forecast.

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John Homenuk

Localized severe thunderstorm event possible Sunday

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A complex weather system will shift toward the area from late Saturday into Sunday, with tropical moisture surging northward as it moves into parts of the Northeast United States. The main surface low pressure area will track into Southeast Canada, while a secondary low pressure area will dip southward into New York State and New England. This will help draw in more southerly winds with moist, unstable air making its way toward the area as Sunday goes on.

At the surface, a warm front will move northward from the Mid Atlantic states towards Central New Jersey by Sunday afternoon. As it does so initially, showers with embedded thunder will likely shift northeastward through the area. Occasionally torrential downpours are anticipated as it does so. The main story, however, will come during the afternoon as the warm front sets up shop near Central New Jersey on a west to east axis.

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Miguel Pierre

Unsettled Weather Today…Stormy Sunday Possible

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More unsettled weather is likely today. A couple of upper-level disturbances embedded a inside larger trough, will be moving through region today. Skies will remain mostly cloudy with some scattered showers. A few isolated thunderstorms with heavy rainfall are also possible, especially northwest of New York City. Closer to the coast, a more stable marine influence from onshore flow will cause any convection to weaken. A cold front is expected to move through the region early tonight, with more showers and few isolated thunderstorms possible again. Temperatures tonight will drop into the middle to upper 60s.

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