John Homenuk

Coastal storm likely early next week

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Although it may seem like we’re beating the same old drum, here we are again — a significant coastal storm looks increasing likely early next week. Forecast models have come into much better agreement on the evolution of the mid and upper level atmospheric pattern across the Continental United States from late this week into this weekend. After a weekend rain event and weak disturbance, two additional disturbances in the mid levels of the atmosphere will move eastward from the West Coast. The first will settle into the Southeast States, while the second will be dropping southeastward from the Northern Plains into the Mississippi Valley. The two disturbances will interact, and possibly phase, early next week — and the end result will be a strengthening Nor’Easter on Tuesday.

The questions, now, become more related to specifics and the sensible weather that these features will bring. The strengthening coastal storm is likely to feature tremendous amounts of moisture and impressive dynamics aloft, but the exact track and intensity of the storm system will obviously significant impact what we see in our area. At this time, the potential is heightened for a multi-hazard Nor’Easter to impact our area from Tuesday into Wednesday, but our confidence in the areas impacted highest and the hazardous weather that our entire area experiences is low.

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John Homenuk

Rainy, unsettled weekend expected

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Although the pattern we have settled into may not necessarily be a “cold” one, it certainly is active. And after a Nor’Easter not much more than a week ago, we’ll deal with another low pressure system this weekend after making our way through a few weaker ones over the past 7 days as well. The low pressure system over the next few days will feature warmer air, southeasterly winds with marine influence, and plenty of rain — all of which will come on Friday and Saturday, much to the despair of those who were ready to head out on the town at the end of this work week. Not that some rain should stop you, really.

Initially, warmer air and partly cloudy skies will rule the day on Thursday. That general theme may even remain in control on Friday morning. But during the mid morning hours, winds will flip to southeasterly drawing in more moist ocean air. Low clouds will increase, winds will become a bit more blustery, and drizzle will work its way into the area. This damp, drizzly and showery weather will continue on and off during the day on Friday. Temperatures, meanwhile, will rise into the upper 40’s throughout the area. Steadier precipitation will likely begin to approach the area later in the afternoon on Friday.

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Doug Simonian

Weekend Update: Modifying temperatures, then variable weather next week

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We hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving! Today provided a chilly day for all of the Black Friday shoppers, though the airmass will be moderating over the next few days, before a cold front swings through on Monday night.

Tonight will be very chilly as high pressure slides just to our south tonight. With clear skies and diminishing winds, temperatures will fall pretty quickly tonight via radiational cooling. Clouds may increase a bit as we head closer to daybreak — particularly to the west of NYC — but that won’t be before temperatures generally fall to around 20 in most NYC suburbs, mid teens in snow-covered NW regions, and low-to mid 20s in NYC itself.

As we head to Saturday, the airmass will be modifying pretty quickly, as 850mb temperatures rise. This is because the high pressure will be moving to our east, giving us a return SW flow an an approaching warm front. However, the warm front will lead to an increase in clouds, which will prevent surface temperatures from rising much. Highs will be in the upper 30s, with the chance of some light snow showers and snow flurries — perhaps mixing with rain showers closer to the immediate coast. There is not a lot of lifting with the front, so precipitation will be spotty and not heavy — and any snow should not accumulate.

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John Homenuk

What to expect from Wednesday’s significant Nor’Easter

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An early season winter storm will impact the area on Wednesday, during one of the busiest travel days of the entire year. Making matters more difficult for forecasters is the fact that the system goes against most climatological analogs, not only including time of year but general atmospheric teleconnections as well. With a +AO value and +NAO value, the idea of this storm system producing snow in our area is quite far fetched. Yet, forecast models and the general evolution of the mid level and surface pattern argues that someone in our area will, in fact, see significant snow.

Forecast models are now in good agreement that a mid level shortwave will slide eastward from the lower Mississippi Valley to the Southeast States on Wednesday. A trailing disturbance, surging through the Plains states, will eventually interact with the initial disturbance over the East Coast. As this occurs, a surface low pressure system will develop off the East Coast of the United States. Forming initially off the Southeast Coast near the Georgia and Carolina coasts, the storm will slide northeastward while strengthening, eventually ending up at a position near the 40/70 Benchmark.

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