Warmer and unsettled weather which affected the area late this week is on the way out, being pushed away by a cold front which pushed through the region Thursday Night. The first in a series of expected cold fronts through late next week, cooler and less humid air will spill into the region by Friday afternoon. Luckily, along with the cooler air will come pleasant conditions with clearing skies and light westerly winds. This weekends weather will be characterized by plenty of sunshine, and temperatures topping out in the upper 60s. As it looks now, another gem on a long running list of great weekends which stretched back to September.
Visible satellite imagery from the morning of October 18th, 2013 showing improving conditions behind a cold front.
The combination of a weak coastal system, meandering off the Mid Atlantic coast, and multiple mid level disturbances moving through the Northeast US will result in generally unpleasant weather from Wednesday through the end of the week. The coastal system is weak but brings moisture and an onshore flow, as the decaying mid level vorticity slowly retrogrades towards the coast on Wednesday. Low clouds and drizzle are possible, despite the lack of any steady rain, especially near the coasts.
Mid level disturbances shifting northeast from the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys through the Great Lakes and Northeast will bring more unsettled weather through the end of the week — signaling the beginnings of a more active pattern. The weekend is expected to feature improving conditions once the frontal system eventually moves off the coast.
High resolution models showing increasing Precipitable Water values by later Wednesday evening.
https://www.nymetroweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Empire-2000-x-300-px-2.png00John Homenukhttps://www.nymetroweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Empire-2000-x-300-px-2.pngJohn Homenuk2013-10-16 07:47:312013-10-16 09:11:03Cloudy, drizzly and unsettled through weeks end
Despite the fact that pleasant weather has essentially dominated late summer and Autumn thus far, the pattern of late has trended a bit more unsettled. This is fairly typical for this time of year, as the first signs of wavelength changes are beginning to be seen in the atmospheric pattern and jet stream. However, a more dramatic pattern change is being forecast by most models in the medium range — with noticeable wave amplification throughout the Northern Hemisphere. In the short term, unsettled weather will begin to impact the area as early as Wednesday with a weak system meandering offshore beginning to back towards a coast slightly. Another frontal system back to our west will eventually approach and cross the area around mid-week, bringing in the first of several shots of cooler air.
NAM model showing multiple disturbances in the mid levels (500mb) of the atmosphere later this week.
On this Columbus Day afternoon, our area is seeing lovely fall weather with temperatures in the mid 60s, and a few mid and upper level stratus and cirrus clouds off to the west.
High pressure over the area is giving us nice weather. The Low pressure in the Plains will affect us later this week.
This is in large part thanks to the high pressure system that has settled in over our area, as seen in the above image. Sunny skies with thin clouds off to the west will continue for the rest of this afternoon. The high pressure is promoting some easterly flow off of the Atlantic, helping to usher in cool air off of the ocean — which is why temperatures will struggle to get out of the mid 60s.
The thin clouds are caused by a weak frontal system off to the west associated with the thin band of clouds in Upstate NY and Central PA. This front will dissipate as it heads east, but not before bringing in a few additional mid-level clouds for tonight. This will keep temperatures from really plummeting — lows should be in the upper 40s in cool spots, with low to mid 50s elsewhere.
Tomorrow looks to be a bit warmer thanks to the high pressure system in the Great Lakes building in. Winds will have a bit more of a westerly component, helping to create some downsloping, yielding temperatures around 70 degrees.
The forecast becomes a bit tricky starting on Wednesday, as the low pressure system in the Plains approaches the area and an inverted trough develops offshore. Clouds will be on the increase for Wednesday, and the inverted trough may help to spark a few showers for Wednesday well ahead of the front. Highs should approach the lower 70s. The front itself should cross the area for Wednesday night and Thursday morning, perhaps giving the area a a brief bout of steady rain — though the heaviest rain should be to the north and west of our area.
https://www.nymetroweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Empire-2000-x-300-px-2.png00Doug Simonianhttps://www.nymetroweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Empire-2000-x-300-px-2.pngDoug Simonian2013-10-14 14:16:302013-10-14 14:24:12Nice fall weather today and tomorrow, scattered showers to end the week, potential pattern change to colder weather next week
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