Doug Simonian

Sunday AM Update: Wintry pattern looms

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The RGEM model shows moderate snow in the NYC area at 5 p.m. Monday

The RGEM model shows moderate snow in the NYC area at 5 p.m. Monday

The NAO blocking has arrived, and much of the area saw periods of snow during the day on Saturday, enough to remind us that winter is still holding its grip on us, despite the calendar turning towards Mid March. We are also following the potential for two storm systems; one for Monday evening through Tuesday morning, and another one as we approach the March 24 period. Monday evening through Tuesday morning looks more rainy and messy than snowy, though further northwest of the city might be able to hold onto enough cold for minor snowfall accumulations along with some ice. However, March 24 is a period that needs to be watched for more serious snowfall potential, albeit it is quite far away, so caution should still be urged.

A stronger storm system will be developing to our west, as energy enters the United States from the Pacific Ocean. Considering we have a decently cold airmass in place right now, the precipitation that moves into our area could start off as snow, as warm, moist air overruns the cold air in place. If enough solid precipitation can break out to the east of the storm system, then we might see precipitation before the warm air advection would settle in. The RGEM model illustrates this well, as it shows a several hour period of snow for the NYC area, and then turning over to sleet.

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John Homenuk

Forecast: Cooler air, more sun through Friday

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NAM Model showing a sharp gradient in temperatures at the 850mb level across the Northeast on Tuesday evening. Notice the much colder air moving towards the region from the west.

NAM Model showing a sharp gradient in temperatures at the 850mb level across the Northeast on Tuesday evening. Notice the much colder air moving towards the region from the west.

A cold front, which crossed the area Tuesday Night, will begin to usher in a much cooler and drier airmass by Wednesday morning. The warm air which was present in the area essentially from Sunday through Tuesday has been kicked off to the east, and west-northwesterly winds are bringing in much cooler air both aloft and at the surface. Although high temperatures will still reach the upper 40’s on Wednesday with full sunshine, another shot of cold air is expected by late afternoon with a chance of scattered showers. Things will feel much cooler especially by Wednesday Night — and if you’re looking for warmth we have bad news, it looks like the cold pattern is here to stay through the end of March.

The weather is expected to remain relatively fair through Friday with Thursday being the coldest day of the remaining three this week (highs only near 40 and blustery northwest winds). A storm system (another front with a shot of cold air) approaches by this weekend. Although precipitation is expected to be mainly rain with this system (Saturday), the airmass which is brings in by the weekend will be plenty cold for frozen precipitation as we move forward into next week. Although there are no specific events on our long range radar, the potential is certainly higher than usual for a late-March snow event. We’re keeping a close eye on it. Until then, here’s your forecast to close out the week.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny with a chance of showers after noon. High near 50. West winds around 10 miles per hour.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers. Breezy, cooler, with a low around 30. West Winds 10 to 20 miles per hour.

Thursday: Sunny and cool with a high near 40. Northwest winds 15 to 20 miles per hour.

Friday: Mostly sunny with a high in the mid 40’s. West winds around 10 miles per hour.

John Homenuk

Clouds, showers expected through Tuesday PM

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NAM model showing heavy rain impacting the area Tuesday afternoon and evening along a cold front. Clearing is expected behind the front by Wednesday.

NAM model showing heavy rain impacting the area Tuesday afternoon and evening along a cold front. Clearing is expected behind the front by Wednesday.

Ahead of an approaching cold front, clouds and showers are expected to become more numerous throughout the area beginning late this Monday evening. Despite warm temperatures aloft (thanks to a mid and upper level ridge), southeast winds at the surface will keep the air cooler and damp through most of the area ahead of the approaching front. Low clouds and drizzle are a possibility throughout most of Tuesday. However, there is an isolated chance of some peaks of sun by Tuesday afternoon as winds turn more southerly. This usually occurs directly ahead of the front, so it will be short lived. A period of steady rain is likely Tuesday afternoon and evening as the front crosses the area from west to east, beginning in Western New Jersey and eventually making its way through NYC and Long Island.

Behind the front, winds will quickly shift from southeast to northwest with temperatures dropping accordingly. The new colder airmass will settle into the area by Wednesday with highs in the upper 40’s, but cold northwest winds keeping it chilly. The blustery west-northwest winds are expected to stick around through the end of the week — so enjoy the warm air while it’s still here!

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of drizzle. Lows in the lower to mid 40’s throughout most of the area, a bit warmer near the coast. Southeast winds 10 to 15 miles per hour.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with rain likely. The rain may be heavy at times. Highs in the mid to upper 50’s. Southeast winds turning southerly around 20 miles per hour.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy with rain likely early, then clearing. Lows in the upper 30’s to lower 40’s.  Southerly winds turning west-northwest around 20 miles per hour.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny with a slight chance of showers. Cooler, with a high in the upper 40’s. Blustery northwest winds around 20 miles per hour.

John Homenuk

FORECAST: LOW CLOUDS KICK OFF AN UNSETTLED WEEK

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Forecast Express: Mostly cloudy to start Monday with some peaks of sun late, high in the mid 50’s. Cool and damp Monday night, showers and a cold front on the way for Tuesday.

Details: Sunny and pleasant weather which closed out the weekend will be on the way out by Monday morning, as southeasterly winds off the cool ocean waters bring in low clouds. The low clouds are expected to stick around through Monday afternoon, before burning off a bit across the interior. Some drizzle is possible, especially near the coast. Overall, a cooler and more damp feeling will be in the air throughout the day. Despite the warm air moving into the area aloft (way above our heads), temperatures are expected to top out only in the upper 40’s to low/mid 50’s throughout the area. We see this often in the Spring and sometimes even early summer, with the onshore flow keeping things damp, cool, and cloudy in many parts of the area.

By Tuesday, winds are expected to turn more southerly. But plenty of clouds will still be around, ahead of a cold front which will approach by mid week. Temperatures are eventually expected to warm up just ahead of the front — but that will also be short lived. A period of moderate to heavy rain is expected as the front passes, with clearing by mid-late week and colder temperatures eventually following the front.

If you’re feeling ambitious and looking ahead to the medium and long range, a cold pattern looks to settle in with the potential for below-normal temperatures and snow (yes, we said it) through mid to late March. Stay tuned!