Doug Simonian

Forecast: Unsettled Tuesday, improving by mid to late week

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NAM Forecast model showing showers and plenty of clouds in the area on Tuesday Night into Wednesday morning. Clearing is expected by later on Wednesday afternoon.

A stationary front to our north will provide the area with cloudy skies and the chance of showers throughout today and tomorrow. Your morning commute should be dry, but once the afternoon rolls along, the chance of showers will increase. It will not be a washout, but it’s probably still a good idea to keep the umbrellas handy just in case. Temperatures will remain mild, however, with highs in the mid 60s, as the eastern half of the country remains in a ridge.

The best chance for heavier rain, however, will be overnight tonight into early tomorrow morning, as a weak shortwave moves into the area, enhancing the lift and moisture associated with the stationary front. The NAM simulated radar for tomorrow night shows the heavier showers pretty well. The showers for the most part will have moved out by tomorrow afternoon, but a few still may linger, and skies will still be mostly cloudy.

The front will clear the area by tomorrow night, and the resulting weather should certainly improve for Thursday and Friday. Some clouds will still linger, but the sun will be out and temperatures should rise into the upper 60s and lower 70s.

Today: Skies will become overcast and showers will be around the area for the afternoon, especially for locations north of the city. Highs will be in the mid 60s.

Tonight: Showers become a bit more numerous, with moderate to heavy rain even possible at times. The whole night won’t be a washout, but definitely have the umbrellas handy. Temperatures will fall into the upper 50s.

Tomorrow: Early morning showers should give way to primarily mostly cloudy and cloudy skies, with isolated showers around. Highs will be in the mid and upper 60s.

Keep reading for more details including an update on the potential tropical system this weekend..

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John Homenuk

Forecast: Sunday brings pleasant end to weekend

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NAM forecast model, showing low temperatures in the 40’s throughout most of the area Sunday Night through Monday morning. Notice the slightly warmer temperatures in NYC and on Long Island.

Another cool and pleasant autumn weekend is coming to a close — but first we have a pleasant Sunday on tap with beautiful mostly clear skies, cool temperatures, low humidity, and of course…football! Temperatures in the 50’s and 60’s are expected today with light west winds that could feel a bit breezy at times. Low humidity will be the main player in keeping things feeling fresh and comfortable, if not a bit chilly. Much of the same is expected through tonight. If you haven’t had a chance to catch the Orionid meteor shower yet, which peaked last night, get out tonight and check a few out before the shower dwindles by tomorrow.

Rest of Sunday: Gorgeous fall day will continue. Sunny, with high temperatures in the low to middle 60’s. Several degrees cooler than Saturday which featured warmer temperatures ahead of a front. But the sun will still be warm — with a light west wind. Get out and enjoy it!

Tonight: Mostly clear with low temperatures falling into the middle 40’s inland and around 50 in the city and metro areas (maybe a few degrees warmer in the usual warm spots). West winds around 10 mph will continue. Definitely bring a sweatshirt if you’re headed out.

Monday: Another gem — not much more to say. High temperatures again the middle 60’s with west winds continuing, mostly light with the occasional breeze.  Winds will shift northwest by the afternoon, but not much change in sensible weather.

Check out the full forecast at a glance in our widget to the right, or head over to the Forecast Brief and Discussion for all the full details on the week ahead. Don’t forget to follow us on Twitter and Facebook for constant updates!

 

John Homenuk

Periods of heavy rain, storms possible through Friday

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The NAM forecast model showing heavy rain with embedded thunderstorms throughout the NYC Area on Friday morning, in response to a warm front passing the area.  Courtesy of Penn State University.

A strong upper level low over the Central United States, which produced severe weather from Missouri to Alabama last night, will slowly shift eastward during the day on Thursday and will near the area on Friday. As it does so, increasing moisture owing to a south/southeast flow will bring more humidity and a setup conducive to heavy rain and thunderstorms to the NYC Area. The threat of rain will begin Thursday night, after clouds stream towards the area during the late afternoon hours on Thursday. A strengthening low level jet (strong winds and advection of moisture in the low levels of the atmosphere) on Friday morning will aid in the development of heavy rain and embedded storms, and more storms are possible later Friday afternoon ahead of a cold front.

The most likely timing for the heaviest rain and potential storms is between 6 and 9 am on Friday, with the passage of a warm front and the strengthening low level jet. In addition to the heavy rain and potential storms, the aforementioned low level jet could bring strong southeast winds off the water which will be especially prevalent over the NJ Shore and Long Island. The second round of storms, is expected to be less widespread, with scattered activity Friday afternoon ahead of a cold front after temperatures rise into the 70’s.

Keep reading for potential severe weather impacts and details on the potential hazards…

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John Homenuk

PM Update: Pleasant pattern, but late week storm crashes party

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Typically, in the transition seasons (autumn and spring) the atmosphere is more prone to large mid-level cyclones in the Central and Northern United States. These can include large upper level lows, cutoff lows in the mid levels of the atmosphere, and phasing jet streams. So far this autumn season, we haven’t seen any large low pressure system which feature any of the above. That will change on Thursday and Friday as a large upper level system forms in response to shortwave energy dropping southeast from the Pacific Jet and energy in Northwest Canada. The system will strengthen and slow over the Central US, pushing a cold front towards our area this weekend. Until then, pleasant weather is expected Wednesday Night through Thursday. You can check the details on the storm system by checking out our Technical Feature.

NAM Forecast model showing low temperatures Wednesday Night. Notice the warm air near the coast in response to southeast winds off the ocean.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, pleasant, temperatures in the mid to upper 50’s falling throughout the night. The winds will turn to south and east, bringing in an onshore flow overnight. Coastal areas will see more humidity and temperatures more near the upper 50’s even throughout the night. Cooler inland.

Thursday: Partly sunny, warmer ahead of an approaching storm system over the Central US. Temperatures will reach into the middle 60’s with afternoon sun. Feeling a bit warmer, with increasing dew points. Rain should stay to the west during much of the day, although by early evening we can’t rule out a shower or two across our far western counties in New Jersey and Eastern PA.

Look Ahead: Things take an unsettled turn Thursday Night into Friday. Instability increases and a large storm system approaches from the Central US. Chance of showers and thunderstorms will increase essentially from Thursday Night through Friday evening. The unsettled weather could continue through the weekend until the cold front crosses Saturday PM.

Check out the full forecast through the weekend. Also, if  you haven’t yet, check out our daily posts on Facebook and follow us for live updates and interact with our forecasters on Twitter!