Archive for category: Short Term Forecast

6z SPC Forecast, indicating a 10% tornado probability within 25 miles of a point (top) and a 30% severe wind (58mph gust or higher) probability within 25 miles of a point (bottom).

We have one of the most dynamic storm systems for the month of September in quite some time. The Storm Prediction Center has a “slight” risk of severe thunderstorms for the entire Metro area, but even more impressive is the 10% tornado contour and the 30% severe wind contour. There is also a 5% hail contour, but I would honestly be surprised if there were any hail reports.

We have a potent, amplified longwave trough diving down into the entire eastern half of the country with an associated powerful shortwave moving through the Northern Great Lakes and into Canada. This trough is phasing with ample tropical moisture to the south, helping to create a powerful, dynamic storm system. There will be a warm front moving across the area in the early morning hours, and a powerful cold front moving from west to east, crossing the Metro area in the late evening hours. There are two primary threats with this storm system: discrete low-topped supercells that may form some weak tornadoes, and a squall line entering the region in the late evening hours helping to produce very strong winds. Click “Read More” below to read full-length post. 

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Behind a cold front which brought widespread severe weather to the Northeast US on Saturday, a fresh new airmass has settled in, and it is expected to stick around for a while and provide gorgeous precipitation-free weather through the new

NAM Model showing low temperatures in the 40’s and 50’s throughout the area on Tuesday morning. Click for high resolution.

work week. High temperatures in the upper 70’s will kick things off on Monday and Tuesday, and crisp air with low humidity will make it feel even nicer. Overnight lows will actually be, dare we say it, “cool” with temperatures dropping into the mid 40’s in some rural areas away from the shore and the city. Mornings will feel much more like autumn at the start of the week as temperatures will be climbing out of the 40’s and 50’s to start, and eventually ending up in the aforementioned upper 70’s.

A bit of moderation in temperature is likely by the middle and end of the week, still, as mid level heights begin to rise and a ridge builds into the area. The increase in warmth will bring high temperatures into the 80’s. But as far as atmospheric disturbances go, things will remain mostly quiet. Thus, very little precipitation is expected through the end of the week. Its not often, especially in this area, to see a stretch of such gorgeous weather. So we hope you all are able to enjoy it.

Monday: A perfect day. High near 75 in the city, possibly a little cooler inland. North winds will be a little breezy at times, around 10 to 15 miles per hour. Low humidity, very comfortable.

Monday Night: Cool, clear. Lows in the 50’s in the city, possibly 40’s in some spots inland. North winds remaining a bit breezy around 10 miles per hour.

Tuesday: Another gem. Highs a degree or two warmer, but still near 76-77 degrees in many locations. Light north winds.

Wednesday: Trending warmer, with highs nearer to 80. Plenty of sun, and a light wind.