John Homenuk

Impactful winter storm expected Saturday AM

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Colder trends, discussed at length over the past few days, have come into better focus over the past 12 to 24 hours, with mesoscale forecast models and short term weather observations lining up with those ideas. The result will be an impactful winter storm throughout much of the area — save for Southern New Jersey and some coastal locations — with the focus on interior Northern New Jersey, Southeast New York and Connecticut.

As always, our latest products are available and break down the threat for snow, freezing rain, and sleet throughout the area. We invite you to watch our latest Premium Discussion video, which includes a narrative of images and ideas with details of how we compiled our forecast.

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John Homenuk

Threat Analysis: Weekend winter storm

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A well discussed storm system — with winter weather potential — is heading towards the Northeast US this weekend, in the wake of a brutally cold airmass associated with the polar vortex in the troposphere. This storm, however, will come with a vast amount of warm air advection — which occurs when warm air moves in multiple levels of the atmosphere. In this case, southwesterly winds are driving the storm system towards the Northeast as the polar vortex departs.

The resulting storm system will be one of transition, with a cold airmass in place to start, followed by a moist and warm airmass as the storm begins its departure. The transition itself will occur with quite a bit of complexity, and interior locations are likely to see a impactful winter storm on Saturday, particularly in the morning hours. Nearer to the coast, a change to rain should occur relatively quickly, alleviating widespread impacts.

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John Homenuk

Arctic air arrives, multiple wintry chances late week

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Lets face it, the term “Polar Vortex” has become overused and oversaturated over the past few years. This time, however, it is certainly applicable: A piece of the polar vortex will be swinging southwards this week through New England, bringing with it extremely cold temperatures and an arctic airmass which is decidedly unusual for this time of year.

We spoke a few weeks ago about how the intrusion of this type of air was likely, due to the presence of a large ridge building from Alaska to the North Pole. The time has finally come, and the airmass over the Northeast US by the end of this week will feature temperatures 20 to 30 degrees below normal averages for this time of year.

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John Homenuk

Wintry weather likely in the Northeast Sunday into Monday

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A much discussed storm system will finally make its trek east through the United States this weekend, arriving in the Ohio Valley and Northeast United States from Sunday into Monday. An initial disturbance pushes eastwards on Sunday, shearing out and weakening but still providing the impetus for some preliminary wintry weather. The more significant disturbance waits until Sunday Night and Monday to impact the Northeast US, bringing with it a significant amount of moisture and lift for precipitation. Snow is expected to shift northeastwards from the Ohio Valley gradually as Sunday evening goes on.

That’s where the complications begin: A surge of warm air associated with the system will be battling a departing high pressure, which will be on borrowed time as it moves away into the Atlantic Ocean. This spells the likelihood of mixed precipitation and transitioning precipitation types after a start as snow, especially near the coast where wintry precipitation amounts will be extremely limited. But inland, where cold air is expected to be more stout, a few inches of snow are possible before the changeover.

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