John Homenuk

Cooler risks, Harvey concerns over the next week

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A wonderful Tuesday morning to you, and thank you for joining us for our daily morning roundup. If you haven’t checked your email box for the latest details, we will (as always) lay them out in an understandable post-based format here. Today we’re jumping straight into discussion regarding the cooler risks in the weather pattern over the Central United States as well heightened tropical risks across the Western Gulf of Mexico late week and into the weekend.

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Miguel Pierre

The latest on Invest 99L and a look toward its future

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Good evening! During a quiet Tuesday afternoon weather-wise throughout a large majority of the Central and Eastern United States, attention has turned to the tropics. Tropical Storm Franklin continues to move towards the Yucatan and Invest 99L, a tropical wave well out in the Central Atlantic Ocean, continues a slow movement northwest. But how much of a threat do either of these systems pose to the U.S Mainland, specifically 99L?  Lets clear the air, discuss the synoptics, and shed any misconceptions about tropical threats over the next week or so.

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John Homenuk

The latest on Hurricane Matthew and his uncertain fate

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Hurricane Matthew continues to churn in the Caribbean this morning, and after briefly obtaining Category 5 strength this weekend, has steadily maintained Category 4 strength with winds near 145 miles per hour. Matthew was the first Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic Ocean in 9 years, making the storm significant in its own right before it made any landfall. But exactly where the storm tracks over the next several days will determine its legacy — and some forecast models continue to suggest that we may remember the storm for a landfall on U.S soil.

The pattern dictating where Matthew goes, however, is complicated. As it stands this morning, steering currents around Matthew are quite weak. They’ve been that way for a few days now, and not surprisingly Matthew has lingered, wobbled, and meandered in the warm waters of the Central Caribbean. He will begin a notable northward turn today, however, and as he moves northward toward more favorable mid and upper level winds, the storm is expected to pass dangerously close to the islands of Jamaica, Haiti, and Cuba. Forecast models currently suggest Matthew is most likely to track on the Eastern Shores of Cuba before re-emerging into the borderline hot waters of the Bahamas.

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Miguel Pierre

Hurricane Matthew’s Potential Impacts on the Caribbean and United States

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Matthew unexpectedly underwent rapid intensification to category 5 hurricane on Friday. This is despite between 20-30kts southwesterly shear over the eye. Today, Matthew has slightly weakened down to category 4  hurricane. But still remains a very powerful and dangerous hurricane.  Matthew has been moving very slowly west-southwestward over the Central Caribbean. But is expected to make gradual turn northward later tonight and Sunday. This will take the eye somewhere between Jamaica, Eastern Cuba and Haiti Bahamas by Monday. Then somewhere over the Bahamas by Tuesday and Wednesday. So will Matthew turn towards the United States or will go out to sea? Well alot depends how it interacts with incoming trough and how strong the ridge is over the Western Atlantic.

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