Posts

John Homenuk

Friday overview: No signs of spring, other than baseball

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Cold air has returned to the area this morning, which you’ve probably already noticed. This airmass will continue pushing into the area over the next several hours as west-northwesterly winds usher in the drier and colder airmass. A few scattered showers are possible today, but should remain generally un-impactful. The main story over the next day or two will be the potential for snow (yes, you read that correctly) on Saturday with a system developing off the coast of New Jersey.

Models are in agreement that a strong shortwave and atmospheric disturbance will drop southeastward from Canada into the Great Lakes and eventually underneath the Mid Atlantic states on Saturday. This is a pattern that is much more typical in January of February — not in April. Nevertheless, the storm system is well signaled on all models. The question, over the next several hours, will be pinning down when and where heavy precipitation will occur. Essentially, while most areas will experience rain with this storm, heavier precipitation rates can allow for “dynamic cooling” in the atmosphere, allowing precipitation in heavier bands to fall as snow.

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John Homenuk

(Premium) Intensity of weekend cold still uncertain

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After many of us geared up for Spring with warm weather in both the early and middle part of March, the atmosphere reminded us that no transition is as smooth as it may seem. Colder, blustery air has returned to the area, and although a mild stretch is expected during the middle of this coming week, very cold air will again surge into the area by this weekend. As we spoke about several days ago, forecast models have done an excellent job of signaling the overall pattern teleconnections and evolution, with a surge of cold air possible during the first week of April.

Over the past few days, however, the intensity and duration of this cold air has come into question. Forecast models have trended slightly weaker overall with the lobe of the Polar Vortex which will break off and head southward into Southeast Canada and Northern New England. Accordingly, the forecast temperatures in our area have moderated a bit. While the overall evoltion of the pattern still suggests anomalously cold air gets to our region, a more south-to-north gradient appears likely, with the coldest temperatures likely north of New York City and more slight to moderate departures from normal to the south.

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Miguel Pierre

April likely to begin with a shot of cold air

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The irony of this post, as we write it, is the fact that temperatures are currently surging into the upper 60’s and lower 70’s. A warm airmass is in place, and even behind some rain which fell this morning, highs will reach well above normal. Playoff hockey is just a few weeks away, as is opening day in Major League Baseball. Mother nature, however, has other plans — and she doesn’t seem ready to cooperate with the calendar just yet, as it flips to April.

A major transition in the atmospheric pattern throughout the northern hemisphere will begin next week. On Monday a fairly weak and fast moving storm system will move through the area, with some rainfall anticipated. Behind this storm system will be a Canadian airmass with temperatures perhaps slightly below normal for Tuesday. Model and ensemble guidance indicate a -EPO ridge developing over the Northeast Pacific and Alaska region for middle on next week. This ridge will cause energy to dig and cut over the Southwest United States. Heights will build over Central and Eastern United States with fair weather in local region Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures will likely rise to above normal levels again during the later part of next week.

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John Homenuk

(Premium) Long Range: Winter may take one final stand

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While visions of 80 degree temperatures still dance in the heads of many after the warmth which surged into the area last week, old man winter many have been conjuring up one last surprise for us all.

It is, after all, still March. Calendar winter continues until the 20th of the month. With the atmospheric pattern undergoing major changes over the next few days, the record-breaking warmth will become a memory. Instead, colder high pressure to our north, the return of a ridge near the West Coast of the United States, and an incoming piece of atmospheric energy will become the main headlines. And yes, the teleconnections involved in the pattern could support wintry weather.

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