Posts

Miguel Pierre

Sunday Evening Overview: Showers late tonight, colder drier mid-week

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After a beautiful, blustery day, winds will begin to diminish this evening. Then clouds will increase tonight as a weak clipper low approaches the Great Lakes. While moisture will be limited, some showers from this system are likely over parts of the region late tonight and into early Monday morning. Especially just northwest of NYC, where better forcing, just north of the low track, could even support a period of moderate rain. Temperatures will fall into middle 40s to lower 50s much of the region overnight.

Then clouds will clear for more sunshine, behind the clipper later Monday morning and afternoon. It will become breezy again with drier northwest winds. But winds will be as strong as this past weekend. Sunshine will help temperatures reach into the upper 50s to lower 60s. But a colder airmass will begin arriving tomorrow night with temperatures dropping into 30s and 40s over the  region. Some other highlights through midweek:

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John Homenuk

Monday Musings: Cold air, high pressure settles in

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Behind the ever-surprising Hurricane Matthew, which offered a last-minute change in track this weekend after several before that, high pressure and more benign weather will finally settle in during this week. While many are taking the day to relax, in recognition of Columbus Day, the chill and blustery winds have the air feeling just like Autumn should, if not a bit colder compared to average.

Much of the same is expected this evening, as the cold airmass settles overhead. High pressure will bring clear skies and calming winds, which will set up ideal radiational cooling conditions throughout the area tonight. We’ve got the highlights below:

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Miguel Pierre

(Premium) Will Warmer Weather Return Next Week?

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After much warmer than normal temperatures during March, April has averaged cooler than normal so far, with some unseasonable cold weather for some days. This weather might seem bit ironic since we’re moving further into the Spring season. Some major league baseball games have to been postponed due to more unseasonably cold weather and even wintry precipitation in Northern parts of the nation. There are signs of a warming trend going into this weekend and early next week. But there are signs that this may be interrupted again due largely to high-latitude blocking.

Later this week, a large, deep cut-off low over the Rockies will cause a strong ridge to build over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions. Another cut-off low will form on the downstream side of the ridge, off the East Coast. Initially, model guidance showed this cut-off low backing towards the region and affecting our weather this weekend. But high-latitude blocking weakening this week allows this low to remain farther offshore.

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John Homenuk

(Premium) Dynamic cooling may bring snow to some on Saturday

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While the calendar has pointed to Spring for several days, the weather pattern has not cooperated. This weekend will be no exception. Forecast models have come into better agreement over the past few days regarding the eventual development of a low pressure system off the Mid Atlantic coast, which will form as a result of a powerful mid level atmospheric disturbance dropping southward from Canada into the Great Lakes and Northeast.

A low pressure system is likely to develop from the Ohio Valley into the Mid Atlantic and off the coast of New Jersey. Precipitation is likely to develop on the northern end of the storm system, as moisture pushes northward from the low pressure area. This will allow for bands of precipitation to develop towards our area, likely falling as rain. The antecedent airmass is quite warm, and likely supports rain over any frozen precipitation, with melting of snowflakes occurring in the lower levels of the atmosphere. However, there is one main caveat in the setup: The potential for intense banding and dynamic cooling, producing heavy snow over some areas.

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