Posts

John Homenuk

Winter returns with multiple threats next week

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Temperatures will soar into the 50’s and 60’s during the day on Wednesday, as a strong low pressure system drives into the Great Lakes and eventually Southeast Canada.  This will, undoubtedly, leave many wondering if winter has taken its one and only stand with the blizzard at the end of January. Unbeknownst to most, however, is a large ridge driving into British Columbia and the Arctic Circle as we speak. This feature will help unload cold southward into Canada, and as a large ridge builds on the West Coast of the United States next week, multiple threats for winter weather will quickly make their way back into the forecast.

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John Homenuk

Premium: Midweek storm system hazards analysis

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A significant storm system will develop this week, moving from the Southwestern United States into the Central Plains states by midweek. In the Northern Plains, blizzard conditions are expected to develop, with significant snowfall and high winds. Farther south and east, across the Arklatex, Mississippi River Valley, and northward to parts of the Ohio Valley, severe weather is anticipated as the storm system progresses northeastward.

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John Homenuk

January 2016 Blizzard draws parallels to famous ’96 storm

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We’ve all heard it before: “There will never be another storm like the Blizzard of ’96”.

And then there was.

This past weekends blizzard will be remembered for many things. 30 inches of snow at Kennedy Airport, drifts above windows and along sides of homes, strong wind gusts and damaging coastal flooding (yes, Gov. Christie). Meteorologically, however, it will stand as a testament to the fact that analogs, no matter how wild they may seem, can be a tremendously useful tool in forecasting.

During the medium range period on forecast models, specifically between days 3 and 5, analog tools and algorithms were continuously signaling the Blizzard of 1996 (January 6-8, 1996) as a tremendously high percentage analog. The evolution of the storm system at multiple levels of the atmosphere was comparable to what forecast models were indicating. And as it turned out, the Blizzard of 2016 would have a very similar evolution and outcome to the famed ’96 Blizzard.

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Miguel Pierre

Winter Forecast Update: Colder February, increased snow chances

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What a turn around this winter has been able to pull off over the past week or two. Record-breaking warmth in December gave way to arctic blasts and a historic, crippling blizzard this month. We also saw an atypical fantastic performance prior to the blizzard by the NAM model for this region. We warned the winter could return with a vengeance in a public article we wrote shortly after Christmas. Pattern signals and ensemble guidance were strongly hinting at opportunities for more cold and snow.

While many aspects of our Winter Forecast published in November have worked out, there have been setbacks and surprises as well. This post will serve as an update and stepping stone for the several weeks of winter still left to come.

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