Posts

Steven Copertino

Public Analysis: Unusual Febuary Warmth, Unsettled Saturday

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Another very warm end to the work week is on tap with temperatures leveling off on Saturday as a cold front moves through the region and provides a chance for some much needed precipitation for the area.

After some overcast and lingering sprinkles this morning that moved over the Lower Hudson Valley and Long Island, the associated  overcast and showers have eased up enough to allow for temperatures to reach into the 50’s across much of the area this afternoon. With just middle to high level cloud cover persisting the rest of the afternoon, the Metro area should continue to see temperatures rise into the 50’s, with even some 60 degree readings possible in the southern half of New Jersey. As a very weak mid level disturbance dissipates while it quickly moves off to the east this evening, high pressure centered over the Atlantic will remain in control of our weather as we head into the evening and will help to provide a very light southerly flow. This southerly flow may introduce some moisture at the lower levels of the atmosphere very close to the surface that could produce areas of fog. The fog may reduce visibilities quite a bit in some locations, so use caution if driving. Otherwise, temperatures this evening will drop down into the 30’s for inland sections, and into the low to mid 40’s for the coastal areas which is just about average for this time of year.

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John Homenuk

Threat Analysis: Northern Plains/Lakes winter storm this week

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A potent disturbance is forecast to eject eastwards from the Pacific Ocean this week, reaching the Western United States and eventually moving northeastwards towards the Rockies during the middle of the week ahead. Meanwhile, northern stream energy (associated with the colder, northern jet stream) will be sliding across the Southern parts of Central Canada, just north of the international border. This reinforcing cold air, combined with the disturbance ejecting from the rockies, will lead to the potential for a winter storm in the Northern Plains and Great Lakes late this week.

A low pressure system will eject from the Central Rockies into the Plains states from midweek onward — essentially from Thursday into Friday. This low pressure area is expected to strengthen as it moves through parts of the Central Plains (Nebraska and Kansas) north-eastwards towards Iowa. Forecast models have struggled to pin down exactly where the low pressure center will track, which has led to considerable forecast uncertainty.

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John Homenuk

2.20 PM All Zones: Warm, tranquil weather will continue

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A warmer, tranquil weather pattern has settled into the Northeast US over the past several days, and despite a cooling trend over the past few days, the pattern is expected to generally continue. A cold front moved through the area last night, bringing cold air advection (movement of colder air), and the cooler air aloft quickly brought warm temperatures down towards average. Highs today were 10-15 degrees colder than yesterday in many areas.

The relatively normal temperatures will warm gradually over the next few days, while generally tranquil weather will also persist. Why the change? The answers lie in the Pacific Ocean. A changed pattern there has allowed disturbances, which were previously moving quickly eastwards towards our area, to remain much farther west and approach the U.S.A more slowly.

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John Homenuk

2.19 PM All Zones: Warmth today, noticeably cooler tomorrow

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Unseasonably warm weather continues this afternoon throughout the area, with temperatures having risen well into the upper 50’s throughout the area. Temperatures in the lower 60’s have been quite common as well, especially across Southeastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and the New York City Metro Area. The warm temperatures and sunshine should continue over the next several hours with only some high and mid level clouds interrupting the sunshine.

Lingering to the northwest, however, is a stronger cold front associated with a mid and upper level trough over New England. This trough is associated with a northern stream atmospheric disturbance, which will sink from Southeast Canada into New England. This disturbance will suppress ridging over the area later tonight into Sunday. A cold front sides through the Northeast and brings cold air advection, ending the warmup temporarily.

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