After tracking this potentially significant system over the past couple of days, we have seen some sizeable differences showing up on the computer models regarding potential impacts and accumulations, but this afternoon’s computer model guidance has come into line and it is looking quite likely that the entire New York metro area will be seeing seeing a significant amount of snow during the next 24 hours with a variety of potential impacts.
As was talked about on Monday, we have our two key pieces of energy that have to interact and come together this evening in order for our storm to take shape and really begin to intensify. If we look on the 500mb chart below, which is essentially what’s happening up in the atmosphere at roughly 18,000 feet, we can see our two distinct features highlighted in pink. Our first piece can be seen over Kansas City, Missouri this afternoon which has generated the beginnings of our storm over Arkansas and Tennessee with precipitation starting to break out all the way up into Illinois/Indiana/Ohio. As our second feature begins to dive south from its current position to the north of Bismark, North Dakota and interacts with the piece of energy in Missouri, the low pressure currently in the south will begin to speed up and track into northern Tennessee this evening. More precipitation will begin to blossom to the north of the low pressure area as time goes on. This low should steadily deepen as it tracks through Virginia by the early morning hours and bring the onset of the precipitation to the southern New Jersey by 2-3am. This area of snow and rain should gradually move up from southwest to northeast and since we have temperatures in the 50s-60s this afternoon, the initial precipitation may be in the form of a rain/snow mix due to residual warm air. As the precip starts to come down at a heavier rate, a switch to heavier snow/mix is likely for much of the area.
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