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John Homenuk

Heat, unsettled weather will continue this weekend

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After our area was able to escape strong to severe thunderstorms on Thursday, many expected Friday to be cooler and more refreshing. You were wrong. Mid level temperatures remain hot — even behind the wind shift boundary that was able to touch off some severe thunderstorms in Pennsylvania on Thursday. As it turns out, mid level capping and dry air in those levels of the atmosphere was able to suppress any thunderstorm development in our area.

Friday will feature conditions quite similar to Thursday. Temperatures will rise into the upper 80’s and lower 90’s away from the area beaches. Humidity values, though lower than Thursday, will still make the air feel somewhat uncomfortable. The air quality will also remain poor. Heat Advisories are in effect to the south and west of New York City, nearer to the Philadelphia metropolitan area.

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John Homenuk

Isolated severe thunderstorms likely today

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A deep southwesterly flow has developed this morning, allowing for increasingly warm mid level temperatures to advect into the area. Surface temperatures, as a result, are expected to rise much higher today than they did on Wednesday. Temperatures in the low 90’s are anticipated by early afternoon throughout much of New Jersey and New York City. Humidity will be on the rise as well. An Air Quality Alert is in effect for parts of NJ and NYC today, which means you should avoid prolonged exposure to the heat and humidity as air quality will be subpar. 

A wind shift boundary, sitting just to our north over the Lower Hudson Valley, will serve to enhance the development of instability to its south. Models are in good agreement that upward of 2500 joules of Surface Based CAPE will develop from Eastern PA into New Jersey and New York City during this afternoon. These numbers are quite high for our area — especially during this time of year.

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John Homenuk

Showers, thunderstorms likely early this week

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UPDATE 4:00PM: Tornado Watch is now in effect from Eastern PA into Western NJ through 10:00pm. Strong thunderstorms capable of producing strong winds and isolated tornadoes are possible through this evening in these locations. Stay weather aware and have a plan in place in the case that warnings are issued.

A Tornado Watch means that thunderstorms are possible, and some may be capable of producing tornadoes. While not immediately expected, tornadoes are possible during the watch time and in and around the watch area. Be sure to stay weather aware during the watch time period.

These thunderstorms are expected to move east tonight, but weaken as they head toward Eastern NJ and NYC.

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John Homenuk

Heat and severe storms Wednesday, Arthur late week

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UPDATE 2:00pm: A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect until 9:00pm this evening. The Storm Prediction Center suggests severe thunderstorms are possible, capable of producing strong winds, small hail, and dangerous lightning. Stay tuned for updates including any severe thunderstorm or flood related warnings. The latest information on the severe thunderstorm watch can be found here.

Heat Advisories were issued by the National Weather Service for much of New Jersey on Wednesday, as heat is expected to build throughout the area once again. Rising dew points are only adding to the issue — as they will create a much muggier, more oppressive airmass than the past few days this week. Heat index values are expected to rise well into the 90’s and possibly come close to 100 in some spots later this afternoon. Any time dew points rise into the mid 70’s while temperatures are in the mid 90’s — the air will be quite heavy.

In addition to the oppressive heat, strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the area in a “Slight Risk” for severe thunderstorms, indicating a risk of small hail and strong winds. In addition to those threats, heavy rain and frequent lightning would be likely in any thunderstorms that develop. We encourage you to stay tuned throughout the day for updates on the developing thunderstorms and hazardous weather threat. In addition, stay hydrated and avoid prolonged outdoor exposure.

Day 1 Outlook from the SPC showing a Slight Risk throughout the area on Wednesday.

Day 1 Outlook from the SPC showing a Slight Risk throughout the area on Wednesday.

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