Posts

John Homenuk

Heat builds, severe thunderstorm risk increases

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As a mid level ridge builds throughout the eastern half of the nation today, temperatures in the mid and low levels of the atmosphere will increase. South of a warm front, which is organizing and becoming more well defined to our north, west-southwesterly winds will begin to usher in the warmer airmass. Mid level temperatures (at 850mb) will warm over 17 C, and with sunshine expected during the afternoon hours on Tuesday, temperatures will warm into the upper 80’s to lower 90’s. When coupled with increasing humidity, it will feel hot and quite muggy.

Back to our west-northwest, a mid level disturbance will be riding along the northern periphery of the building ridge axis. As it does so, it will help to trigger the development of thunderstorms — some of which could be strong to severe. These storms will initially form well to our north and west, but are expected to slide east-southeastward through the Northeast States as the disturbance shifts accordingly. Subsequently, the Storm Prediction Center has placed much of the area in a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms.

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John Homenuk

Strong storms Tuesday, backdoor front Wednesday

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It has been the season of backdoor cold fronts so far this Spring, and yet another one is poised to move southwestward from New England during the middle part of this week. For the time being, our area is nestled just to the south of the backdoor frontal boundary. What  this means for Tuesday is continued, if not enhanced southerly flow and very warm temperatures. Highs in the upper 80’s to lower 90’s are likely throughout the area — and warm temperatures are even possible down to the beaches with an offshore wind direction.

By Tuesday afternoon, however, increased support for lift along the broad frontal zone will increase the chances for the development of showers and thunderstorms. With moderate instability in place and marginally supportive wind fields, strong to severe thunderstorms are a possibility. Dropping from the northwest, these storms will be on the periphery of good upper level support, and may make it as far as the area beaches while maintaining strong to severe intensity. Namely, dangerous lightning and strong winds are a possibility within these storms.

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John Homenuk

Excessive heat peaks Friday

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A week characterized by excessive, in some cases record setting, heat will come to a climax on Friday as temperatures and dew points are maximized ahead of a cold front. West-southwesterly winds will reinforce an already moist and hot airmass – and temperatures are expected to climb near or over 100 degrees in much of the NYC Metro Area and New Jersey on Friday afternoon. The combination of this surface heating and staggeringly high dew points in the mid to upper 70’s will lead to Heat Index values as high as 100 degrees.

The National Weather Service has issued an Excessive Heat Warning for the entire NYC Metro Area through 8pm Friday. The aforementioned combination of heat and humidity will make this final day of the heat wave especially dangerous. Make sure to take all heat related precautions and be prepared for any heat related emergencies. Keep a close eye on the elderly, children and pets. Avoid prolonged exposure to the sun as well as outdoor exercise. Wear loose fitting and light clothing if possible. Most importantly — stay hydrated at all times.

Along the area shores, some relief is expected by late Friday afternoon as a seabreeze develops. Then, finally, later on Saturday a cold front will make its approach towards the area — and is expected to sweep out the excessive heat. Until then, however, try your best to stay cool!

John Homenuk

Dangerous heat wave will peak late this week

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Wednesday marked Day 3 of a prolonged heat wave which has gripped the area this week. High temperatures of 90 or above have been widespread throughout the area on both Monday and Tuesday. The big story over the next few days, however, will be the quickly rising dew points.

Heat Index values on Tuesday, despite hot temperatures, only topped out in the upper 90s thanks to lower dew points. But Wednesday marks the first day of rising dew points — which will too out in the mid to upper 70s on Friday. The heat will be peaking around then as well, with highs closer to 100 expected on Thursday and Friday. The combination of the two could lead to the most oppressively hot days of the summer.

With heat index values expected to be well over 100 degrees, we encourage you to review heat related emergency preparations. Stay hydrated. Keep a close eye on the elderly, children and pets. And remember to limit outdoor activity and exposure to the sun if possible.


Looking Ahead: Some relief is expected by this weekend, but not before more hazardous weather. A strong cold front approaching the area will bring the chance for widespread severe weather throughout the Northeast US on Saturday. The Storm Prediction Center has placed our area in a potential for organized severe weather on Day 4 (Saturday). Stay tuned for more details and analysis as the event draws closer.