Posts

Miguel Pierre

Premium Long Range: More Heat & Severe Weather Risks Going Into July

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After a few showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, more pleasant weather with temperatures near to slightly below normal will continue over the next few days. But there are many signs of overall pattern change support more typical mid-summery weather with some hot temperatures, humidity and some thunderstorms over the region, as we move into the few weeks of July.

A trough will dig into the Northern Rockies and Plains during the middle of this week. This will cause ridge build over Northeast and Mid-Atlantic region late this week and into this weekend. This will much warmer and humid airmass to return to region. Temperatures with more southwest flow and enough sunshine could exceed 90°F degrees in many spots by Friday and Saturday. Some afternoon sea-breezes each day will likely some coastal sections a little cooler. But it still be uncomfortably humid.

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John Homenuk

AM Update: Coastal storm skirts by, summer heat looms

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A day which once looked lost to the soggy rains from a coastal storm will turn out quite alright, and the weekend that follows will be the warmest of the year. We come bearing good news this morning, because that day is today and the weekend that follows is just over the hill! Yes, we are finally on the tail end of a drawn out dreary, rainy and cool pattern which was brought into our area by the presence of high latitude blocking.

A coastal storm system will skirt the region to the east today, with heavy rains off the Mid Atlantic and Northeast Coast from today in tonight. As this low pressure system develops, swinging eastward alongside a large trough sitting over the Northeast States, rising air is likely to its northwest. This will produce heavy rain offshore, but also allow sinking air (subsidence) to spread into the Northeast during the day.

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John Homenuk

One more bout of unsettled weather before summer-like weather arrives

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That old “light at the end of the tunnel” saying couldn’t be more applicable than it is right now. After several dreary days, and four of five weeks overall featuring unsettled conditions, forecast models suggest that we are finally near the tail end of the cooler and unsettled weather pattern. Isolated showers continued today but many areas were able to see breaks of sun with temperatures averaging several degrees warmer than this time yesterday.

The trend is expected to continue on Thursday, when the Northeast states will luck out during a very close call with a coastal storm system. A disturbance rotating around a larger upper level low, which is still meandering near the Northeast States, will aid in the development of a coastal storm on Thursday. The orientation of the upper level low luckily appears to guide the storm system seaward.

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Miguel Pierre

5.18 Late-AM Zones Update: More Heat and Isolated T-Storms Possible into Friday

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Good morning! More summer-like weather continues today. It will be hotter in many areas, than on Wednesday. 850mb temperatures around 17░C to 19C with southwest winds will support highs in the lower and middle 90s, away from the coast today. More record highs will likely be set again across the region.  Humidity will be higher, but not oppressive. Sea-breezes will keep coastal areas, such as Long Island and NJ shore cooler again today. But even these areas temperatures may reach the 80s, with a stronger southwest flow today.

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