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John Homenuk

AM All Zones Update: Rain likely this afternoon

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Periods of steady rain will return to the forecast this morning and likely will be steady and heavy at times this afternoon. A strong storm system developing through the Northeast US will draw increasingly notably moisture northward today, and as a warm front moves through precipitation will become more prevalent throughout the area.

Beginning as showery, drizzly precipitation this morning, rainfall totals of around 0.10″ are likely through early afternoon. But a period of steadier rainfall associated with enhanced lift in the atmosphere could bring totals over 0.60″ for some areas by sunset tonight. A few isolated rumbles of thunder can’t be ruled out either.

NAM model showing periods of heavy rain in the Northeast this afternoon.

NAM model showing periods of heavy rain in the Northeast this afternoon.

The system shifts north of the area later tonight, after 8pm, with drying conditions expected as the evening goes on. Colder air will then begin surging into the area from the west. This arctic air will continue pushing into the region through Wednesday, with temperatures falling much below normal.

Stay tuned for more this morning on the development of wintry weather this weekend.

John Homenuk

PM All Zone Update: Rain continues, heavy at times Tuesday

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An approaching storm system will bring continued drizzle and showers through tonight — with periods of steady rainfall expected on Tuesday. The disturbance affecting our area tonight is quite weak, but moisture in the atmosphere’s low levels is creating drizzle and showers. These will continue on and off for the next few hours — but accumulation is expected to be light.

Temperatures will continue warming through the morning hours as southerly winds continue. This southerly flow will be drawing more moisture into the area ahead of the stronger storm system approaching on Tuesday. An area of steady to heavy rain is expected to move through the Mid Atlantic and Northeast from the late morning to early afternoon hours, producing rainfall totals between 0.35″ and 0.50″ during its passage.

 

Simulated radar imagery valid 1:00pm on Tuesday.

Simulated radar imagery valid 1:00pm on Tuesday.

These periods of steady rain are likely to continue during the afternoon, with the heaviest rain spreading north into the northern zones of Southeast NY and Connecticut during the mid afternoon hours. As a low pressure area shifts north of the area during the day, clearing will occur from southwest to northeast through the area.

Improving weather conditions are expected after sunset, as west-northwesterly winds begin ushering in a drier and colder airmass. Breezy conditions may develop by late afternoon as the frontal boundary moves past the area. Cold air will surge into the area by Wednesday with arctic air pushing south from Canada.

 

John Homenuk

Multiple chances for wintry weather this weekend

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A period long discussed as a potential “window” for wintry weather is now within the short to medium range, and forecast models continue to hone in on the development of wintry weather for parts of the Eastern Untied States, particularly the Northeast US as early as Friday and Saturday. A large ridge in the Pacific Ocean will dislodge cold air into Canada and the Northern 1/3 of the US, while an active jet stream pattern continues.

The first disturbance approaches the area during the middle part of this week, with an additional disturbance from the polar jet driving southwards through Central Canada and potentially phasing with a trough over the Ohio Valley. This phase could allow a storm system to form quickly off the Mid Atlantic coast, with precipitation spreading northwards into the Northeast US.

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